St Pauli vs RB Leipzig Prediction: Baumgartner to maintain calendar-year tackle record

St Pauli extended their winless run in the Bundesliga to four games last Friday as they were held to a 1-1 draw by Hamburger SV at Millerntor-Stadion. Kiezkicker will play back-to-back home matches as, on Tuesday (19:30 GMT), they play host to RB Leipzig, who triumphed 3-0 at Heidenheim on Saturday.

Below are my St Pauli vs RB Leipzig predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Team News

St Pauli captain Jackson Irvine returned from a two-game foot injury absence as a second-half substitute last Friday, so the Australian midfielder could be an option to start against RB Leipzig.

However, Andreas Hountondji (ankle), Connor Metcalfe (knee) and David Nemeth (groin) are all injured for Alexander Blessin's side, while Adam Dzwigala is suspended after picking up his fifth yellow card of the campaign.

Football Odds

Castello Lukeba, Assan Ouedraogo, Viggo Gebel (all knee) and Johan Bakayoko (calf) are out injured for Ole Werner's RB Leipzig.

St Pauli vs RB Leipzig Odds

St Pauli have picked up the fewest points at home (eight in eight games) in this season’s Bundesliga, so it’s no surprise to see Tuesday’s hosts 16/5 underdogs, implying a 23.8% probability of success.

Fifth-place RB Leipzig, 22 points ahead of relegation-threatened St Pauli (17th), are 5/6, or a 54.5% chance, to claim all three points in Hamburg, while the draw, which was a winning selection in last season’s corresponding fixture (0-0, September 2024), is priced at 13/5.

Bet Builder - Eric Smith (STP) 1+ Shots & Christoph Baumgartner (RBL) 2+ Tackles @ 9/5

St Pauli midfielder Eric Smith has scored twice in this season’s Bundesliga, netting an 89th-minute equaliser in his side’s 3-3 draw with Borussia Dortmund on the opening day of the campaign before striking in a 2-1 defeat at VfL Wolfsburg earlier this month.

The 29-year-old is averaging 0.5 shots per game, recording at least one effort in seven of his 17 league appearances, including two of his last three.

Smith has registered shots against the current top two, Bayer Leverkusen (two) and leaders Bayern Munich, so he won’t be afraid to try his luck against Leipzig.

Today's Football Fixtures

Speaking of the visitors, I’m backing their star man in midfield, Christoph Baumgartner, to make at least two tackles on Tuesday.

The 26-year-old, who is averaging 1.5 tackles per game in the 2025/26 Bundesliga, has recorded two tackles in all three appearances this calendar year.

Most Corners - St Pauli @ 7/5

Despite sitting second bottom of the Bundesliga, St Pauli average the most corners per home game (6.88).

Kiezkicker have taken the most corners in seven of their eight home matches, only falling short in their 2-1 victory over Heidenheim on December 13, when they were reduced to 10 men in the 45th minute. Even then, they finished the first half with the most corners (2-1).

Leipzig, meanwhile, concede, on average, 4.56 corners per away game, and at Heidenheim on Saturday, they gave away four and failed to win one themselves.

In last season’s corresponding fixture, St Pauli took three of the four awarded.