Roma vs AC Milan Prediction: Another card-crazy contest between top-four hopefuls

This Sunday is a real treat for Serie A fans. After Juventus (fifth) take on Napoli (third) in Turin, attention turns to Rome, where AS Roma (fourth) host AC Milan (second) at the Stadio Olimpico (19:45 GMT, TNT Sports 1).

The latter game is the focus of my attention here, so, without further ado, here are my Roma vs AC Milan predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Roma head coach Gian Piero Gasperini can call upon recent Olympique Marseille capture, Robinio Vaz, and Aston Villa loanee Donyell Malen, both of whom were ineligible to feature in Thursday's 2-0 victory over VfB Stuttgart in the Uefa Europa League. Malen started and scored on his debut against Torino (0-2) last Sunday, so expect the Dutchman to be restored to the starting XI here.

Evan Ndicka, Bryan Cristante, Wesley Franca and Gianluca Mancini, all of whom came on as second-half substitutes in midweek, will all earn promotions to the first XI this weekend, too.

Leon Bailey has returned to parent club Aston Villa, while Artem Dovbyk (groin), Mario Hermoso (hip) and Stephan El Shaarawy (Achilles) are all expected to miss out due to injury.

Football Odds

As for AC Milan, Mexican forward Santiago Gomez (ankle) remains sidelined, but Alexis Saelemaekers (groin), who was initially considered doubtful for this game, has returned to training.

If the Belgian passes a fitness test, Massimiliano Allegri could stick with the starting XI that lined up for their 1-0 win against Lecce last Sunday, although Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Luka Modric will both be eyeing up a place in the team.

Roma vs AC Milan Odds

Roma, who have won their last three league games, all by a 2-0 scoreline, are 13/8, or a 38.1% chance, to exact revenge on Milan for their 1-0 defeat at San Siro in November, while the visitors are 15/8, implying a 34.8% probability of success, to do the double over the Giallorossi, with the draw offered at 2/1.

Booking Points Over/Under +52.5 - Over 52.5 @ 1/1

This looks like the most obvious play to me, having landed in four of the last five head-to-heads, including the last three.

In last season's corresponding fixture, a 3-1 win for Roma on May 18, 2025, five yellow cards and one red card were awarded, amounting to 75 booking points. Then, in the most recent meeting, Milan's 1-0 win at San Siro on November 2, six yellows, totalling 60 booking points, were produced.

Today's Football Fixtures

With just four points and two places separating the sides in the table, I can't see Sunday's game being any less competitive than usual, so we can expect more fireworks between the two in Rome.

If you're feeling a bit braver, 80+ booking points is being offered at 7/2.

Bet Builder - Bryan Cristante (ROM) & Koni De Winter (MIL) Both Shown Any Card @ 5/1

I covered last season's corresponding fixture for Betfred Insights, doing the double with 11/8 and 5/2 winners.

At 5/2, I backed former Milan midfielder Cristante, who joined the Rossoneri in 2009 and spent five years at the club before moving to Portuguese powerhouses Benfica, to receive a card.

The Italian duly delivered, picking up his eighth and final yellow card of the Serie A campaign.

It was Cristante's sixth caution in 18 appearances against his old side, too, and while he failed to add to that tally in November's head-to-head, there's another great chance for him to do so this weekend.

The 30-year-old has received five yellows in 20 league games this season, earning his most recent one in a 2-0 win at Lecce on January 6. He's averaging 1.7 fouls per 90 in Serie A, committing three in three of his four appearances post-Christmas.

On Sunday, Cristante could come up against midfield counterparts Samuele Ricci, Loftus-Cheek and Andre Rabiot, averaging 1.7, 1.5 and 1.6 fouls won per 90, respectively. Even Ardon Jashari, who has only featured five times in Serie A, has been fouled five times, at an average of 2.4 fouls per 90.

I'm also adding in a card for Milan defender Koni De Winter, who only picked up his first league booking for Milan last week, but is averaging 1.6 fouls per 90 in the competition this season.

The 23-year-old was cautioned six times in 25 Serie A games (23 starts) for Genoa last season, and in 2023/24, he was shown eight yellows and one red in 29 league matches (26 starts).

In the absence of Strahinja Pavlovic, De Winter has recently been playing on the left-hand side of Milan's back three, which means he is likely to come into close contact on Sunday with the likes of Dybala, Wesley and Matias Soule, who are averaging 2.1, 2.2 and 1.7 fouls won per 90, respectively, in Italy's top flight this term.