India vs South Africa Prediction: Proteas’ to Breetzke to victory in 3rd ODI?

Jamie Pacheco previews the 3rd and final ODI from Visakhapatnam with the Series currently drawn at 1-1 so it's all to play for when they get going on Saturday, December 6, start time 08:00 and live on TNT Sports 2.  

Jamie thinks the South Africans are being underrated here, so he likes the 7/4 on them winning, while the extremely reliable Matthew Breetzke is carrying some of his money, as well. Let's see why he's made each pick as we go through his India vs South Africa Predictions...  

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

Team News:

India  

India will be feeling pretty sick about the fact that they lost the 2nd ODI after posting 358. 

Virat Kohli scored his second century in as many matches before being dismissed for 102, but remarkably, that wasn't even the highest score by an Indian batsman after Ruturaj Gaikwad got 105 at a brilliant strike rate of 105. Another very impressive contribution from stand-in skipper KL Rahul (66 off 43) got India to a total they really would have expected to defend, albeit on a good wicket, where dew was always going to be a factor.  

But then the wheels came off. Prasidh Krsishna was woefully expensive and Kuldeep Yadav had a rare off-day too, but it was the fielding that was worst of all. You know it's not going to be your day when even Ravindra Jadeja is making mistakes in the field. And had they not dropped Aiden Markram, the match may well have turned out very differently.  

Washington Sundar didn't have a great game so if anyone is going to make way, it might be him. Ntish Kumar Reddy could come in for him.  

South Africa  

A wonderful chase by South Africa has them back in the Series after a century from Aiden Markram and good contributions from Temba Bavuma, Matthew Breetzke, Dewald Brevis, and Corbin Bosch got them over the line on Wednesday.  

Good knocks from the first four should come as no surprise but the Proteas may have come across a serious player in Bosch. He's a good enough bowler, but if he can carry on making  big contributions at lightning-fast strike rates with the bat as well, he may just be the closest thing they've had since Lance Klusener. 

But the win came at a cost. Which brings us to Nandre Burger.  

Our 10/3 shot for top SA bowler would have had every chance to claim a second wicket and at least dead-heat (or better) when he pulled up in his delivery stride at the start of his seventh over and that was that. We were denied a chance to end the game in profit and now SA are denied the services of one of their most reliable bowlers.  And he wasn't the only one hobbling off; Tony de Zorzi went down the same route after making an important 17 off 11 in the chase. 

Both are expected to miss this one, but at least they have adequate replacements: Lungi Ngidi will come in for Burger, with Ryan Rickleton likely to replace de Zorzi, though we'll have to see where the former bats.  

Pitch and conditions. 

There have been nine completed ODIS out of the 10 staged here at Visakhapatnam. India won seven of those, so obviously have a good record here.  

But the last one saw India bowled out for just 117 in 2023 against Australia after our old mate Mitchell Starc took 5-53.  

In contrast, in 2019, India posted 387(!) against the West Indies, with both KL Rahul and Rohit Sharma scoring centuries. The Windies managed 280 in reply. 

And a year earlier, also against the Windies, India managed 321 (Kohli scoring the century that time). 

Which suggests that match against Australia was a bit of a freak occurrence. Besides, the average runs per innings is just over 300 in the ODIs played here, so we can probably expect another high-scoring match.  

Match Winner odds 

India are 4/9 (69%) with South Africa 15/8 (34.8%). No real surprises there as such.  

It's an interesting one because it could well have been 2-0 India after two games, but then again, it may also have been 2-0 South Africa had they pulled off a heist in that first match.  

Sure, India has a fine record here at this ground, but further inspection shows that five of their seven wins were against the Windies, who, with all due respect, are one of the weaker ODI teams India regularly plays.  

Those two SA absences aren't that bad because they have suitable replacements and given these two have gone toe-to-toe so far in the first two games, it's an easy conclusion to reach that the Proteas are a value bet.  

*For all the latest and live India vs South Africa 3rd ODI Odds then head over to betfred.com 

Matthew Breetzke Total Runs  

This Breetzke character is some player. After delivering a nice winner for us at 11/2 in the first match, he played a priceless knock in a sort of anchor role in the second with 68 off 64, which was precisely what SA needed in the circumstances.  

His ODI record gets better by the day and now stands at an average of 68, thanks to six fifties and a century from just 11 knocks.  

Those figures suggest that a run line of 26.5 is considerably lower than it should be. After all, he's passed 50 in over half his ODIs to date, let alone 26.5.  

For interest's sake, he's 9/2 to top score but the slight problem with that is that a) he has some pretty good players to beat and b) he's more Jacques Kallis than AB de Villiers and if one of the Top 3 races to a big total, he may not score quickly enough to catch up. So we'll go with the more conservative option on this occasion.  

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025:

• Points Staked: 129 
• Points Returned: 125.23 
• Current P/L: -3.77 

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...