India vs South Africa Prediction: Proteas can beat them in ODI mode, too

Jamie Pacheco is fresh from tipping the Proteas at 5/2 to win the Second Test and is re-investing some of his winnings on them again, this time at 2/1 in the 1st ODI. TNT Sports 4 will be showing the match live in the UK, with the first ball due to go down at 08:00 on Sunday morning.

Our premier cricket tipster also has 13/2 and 11/2 shots worth backing on the top batsmen markets as he takes us through his thinking with his India vs South Africa Predictions here on Betfred Insights...

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Team News:

India  

India lost the two-match Series 2-0 and if you believe some reports, are now in full crisis in the longest format, just over a year after losing 3-0 at home to New Zealand.  

But if that was bad news for India fans, it wasn't bad news for us, because we had South Africa at 5/2 to win the match.  And we can add that we were pretty unlucky with Washington Sundar (tipped at 7/1) falling just short of Yashasvi Jaiswal's first innings 58 (he got 48) and Ravindra Jadeja top-scoring in the second innings, when we needed him to do so in the first. But a good profit nevertheless. 

Shubman Gill's injury means Jaiswal should open. As regards the number four spot left open from Shreyas Iyer's absence, it will probably go to Rishabh Pant rather than Ruturaj Gaikwad. Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli return in the only format where they play international cricket. There's no Jasprit Bumrah.  

South Africa  

Some of the heroes from that Test series win return for more, including the Player of the Match in the Second Test win, Marco Jansen, skipper Temba Bavuma, Aiden Markram, and Keshav Maharaj.   

Quinton de Kock plays and also keeps wicket, the overworked Tristan Stubbs gets a break with Matthew Breetzke slotting in at four and Rubin Hermann expected to bat at six. There's no Kagiso Rabada, still carrying an injury, so Corbin Bosch plays, as do Lungi Ngidi and Nandre Burger. Markram can bowl off spin if needed.  

Pitch and conditions

Only six ODIS have taken place here in Ranchi. Just once was 300 busted batting fist, and that was easily defended. 270-280 is therefore about par, but there's no guarantee you're going to chase that sort of score.   

Much will depend on dew. If there's plenty of it about, it's going to be hard to defend anything around 280 with the slippery ball making life particularly difficult for the spinners. 

So batting first may be the way to go, just to be on the safe side.    

Match Winner odds 

South Africa are 2/1, implied probability of 33.3%.  

That's a price I'm happy to take for several reasons. The first of them is that the Proteas have over the years, dealt with spinning Indian wickets better than most, as just shown by their Test series win; but they've had joy here in white-ball cricket, too.  

Yes, there are a couple of absences due to injury (Rabada) and the managing of workloads (Stubbs), but that's still a pretty good team they're fielding.  

And India have absences of their own with no Gill or Bumrah, while Kohli and Sharma play so little cricket these days that they generally need a match or two to get back into game-mode.  

Not ideal when they're batting at 1 and 3.  

South Africa are certainly worth a punt at that price.  

*For all the latest and live India vs South Africa 1st ODI Odds then head over to betfred.com 

Top India and South Africa Batsmen  

Two middle-order batsmen at similar prices here catch the eye.  

If my theory about Kohli and Sharma coming into this match undercooked is correct, then that could seriously open the door to the stand-in skipper KL Rahul at a pretty big price of 13/2. This is a man who averages 48 in this format and has seven centuries in it, so given he should get a fair crack of the whip batting at five, it's a price I'm happy to take.  

Much of the above is also true of Matthew Breetzke. This is the player who started his ODI career in incredible fashion with a century and four fifties from his first nine matches and is a good player of spin, so it's a good thing he'll come in a little bit lower down. The 11/2 is a perfectly good price, too.  

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Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025:

• Points Staked: 122.5 
• Points Returned: 116.98 
• Current P/L: -5.52 

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...