Ecuador vs Argentina Prediction: No Messi, no goals…

Both Ecuador and Argentina have safely qualified for the 2026 World Cup next summer, and they will round off their campaigns by taking each other on at the Banco Pichincha Monumental Stadium in Guayaquil (00:30 BST, Premier Sports 1).

Below you can find my Ecuador vs Argentina predictions as we search for a winner to round off the Conmebol campaign. 

Team News

Alan Franco has served his one-match suspension and is available again, while there are unlikely to be any risks taken for those carrying knocks. Moises Caicedo missed the draw with Paraguay and may well be rested here, while Arsenal’s Piero Hincapie may continue at the heart of the defence alongside Willian Pacho. 

Enner Valencia will hope to find the net given his side have failed to score in their last four international matches. Kendry Paez of Chelsea may support him, with Gonzalo Plata hoping to get a start out wide. 

Football Odds

All the focus for Argentina is on Lionel Messi’s absence, as he has been given a rest period having played his final qualifier at home on Thursday. There have been rumours that he may not even play at the World Cup next summer, and instead hang up his boots, but that feels unlikely given the tournament is in the United States of America, and there is surely some pressure on him from his club to feature. 

Thiago Almada looks set to take his number 10 shirt for this qualifier, with Lautaro Martinez likely to start up front with Julian Alvarez. Tottenham Hotspur centre-back Cristian Romero is suspended having amassed four yellows in qualifying to date - which is pretty good going by his standards - but he will need replacing here. Leonardo Balerdi, who plays for Marseille, is the most likely candidate to get the nod, while Liverpool’s Alexis Mac Allister could return to play in this one having not played on Thursday.

Today's Football Fixtures

Ecuador vs Argentina Odds 

Ecuador are priced at 9/4 to win this game, while Argentina are the marginal favourites at 13/8 to take three points. That gives the visitors an implied win probability of 38% for this final qualifier, while a draw can be backed at 7/4. 

Over 2.5 goals is 9/4, BTTS is 6/4 and Martinez is 11/2 to open the scoring for the world champions, with Valencia at 6/1 for the hosts. 

No goalscorer @ 4/1

Ecuador are without a doubt, the dullest international football team on the planet in 2025. Not that they will care. Their last four matches have all finished 0-0, and we picked out a correct score in their last outing against Paraguay at a decent price, so we are going to follow the same logic here. 

Argentina are obviously a fine attacking outfit, but without Messi, and with nothing on the line, we could see a slightly disjointed display. Ecuador’s defence is one of the best in the world, with Pacho and Hincapie two elite centre-backs flanked by Pervis Estupinan on the left and Club Brugge’s Joel Ordonez on the right. They could cause serious damage at the World Cup in 2026, although they will have to address their lack of goals. 

This should be another turgid affair and the ‘no goalscorer’ pick gives us slightly more wiggle room, as if an own goal is scored in the game, our selection will still go down as a winner. Lovely.

Under 0.5 first-half goals @ 11/10 

Let’s go for a safer selection here but using the same theory. These are two teams that are strong defensively, while they may both take their foot of the gas in a bid to avoid injuries. It should be a relatively tame affair in Ecuador, and so I think the best way to go is to back a 0-0 at half-time.

I don’t like the look of any of the card markets, while goals and goalscorers are going to be hard to come by. This is a decent price. 

Offers

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