Liverpool vs Newcastle Prediction: More Anfield misery for Magpies

Sunday's 2-0 victory over Manchester City was a seismic one for Liverpool as they surged 11 points clear of Arsenal in the Premier League title race, albeit having played one game more. Next up for the Reds is the visit of Newcastle United to Anfield on Wednesday evening (20:15, TNT Sports 1) in a dress rehearsal for the 2025 Carabao Cup final at Wembley next month.

Below are my Liverpool vs Newcastle predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds. 

Team News

Alexis Mac Allister is expected to be available for Liverpool’s meeting with Newcastle United on Wednesday, despite sustaining bruising to his face in Sunday's win at the Etihad Stadium.

“Yes, I think he will [be available]. He will train with us today," head coach Arne Slot said during his pre-match press conference on Tuesday morning.

However, Conor Bradley (muscle), who came on in the 66th minute of the Reds' 2-2 draw with Aston Villa last week but lasted just 23 minutes before being withdrawn and missing the weekend win over Man City, has been ruled out "for a few weeks".

Slot confirmed earlier this month that Joe Gomez would miss "large parts" of the remainder of the season with a hamstring injury that may require surgery.

Bradley, Gomez and Tyler Morton (shoulder) aside, the rest of Liverpool's squad appears to be fighting fit.

Cody Gakpo made his return from a two-game lay-off on Sunday and could start against Newcastle, possibly alongside either Diogo Jota or Darwin Nunez with Luis Diaz potentially dropping down to the bench.

Should Slot go with a forward line of Mohamed Salah, Gakpo and Jota/Nunez, Dominik Szoboszlai will have to drop back from the more advanced position he took up against Man City, which would probably mean Curtis Jones starting as a substitute.

Football Odds

Speaking on Tuesday morning, Newcastle head coach Eddie Howe told reporters that Sandro Tonali "came through fine" from Sunday's 4-3 victory over Nottingham Forest at St James' Park where the Italian midfielder was a 70th-minute substitute.

Howe added: "I anticipate he will be fully fit for Wednesday. Sven [Botman] is improving and improving quickly, we will see if he makes the game or not, he will be close."

Jamaal Lascelles and Joelinton (both knee) are still out injured for the Magpies.

Liverpool vs Newcastle Odds

Liverpool have lost just once at Anfield this season and have beaten Ipswich Town (4-1) and Wolves (2-1) back-to-back there in the Premier League over the last month.

The Reds have beaten Newcastle at home for the last three seasons and are therefore appropriately priced at 1/2 to make it four consecutive campaigns on Wednesday, implying a 66.7% probability of success.

The Magpies haven't won at Anfield since April 1994 and were thrashed 4-0 by reigning champions Man City in their last away outing on February 15; Howe's side are 5/1, or a 16.7% chance, to pull off a shock victory in L4 this week.

The draw is priced at 4/1, both teams to score at 4/7, and over 3.5 total goals at 11/10.

The Premier League's leading marksman, Salah, is 8/11 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market and is 3/1 to open the scoring as he did on Sunday at the Etihad. Alexander Isak is first up in both markets for the visitors at 8/5 and 6/1 respectively.

Player to Receive a Card - Alexis Mac Allister (LIV) @ 13/5

I've enjoyed great success with Mac Allister bookings this season, tipping the Liverpool midfielder for a card at 18/5 in my Milan v Liverpool predictions piece last September and in my Liverpool v Real Madrid Bet Builder Tips in November.

More recently, I backed the 2022 World Cup winner to be cautioned against Everton in the last-ever Merseyside derby at Goodison Park. Having made three fouls in that 2-2 draw, I think he was fortunate not to go into the referee's notebook that February 12 night.

Mac Allister has been cautioned 10 times for Liverpool this season - six times in the Premier League - although his most recent booking was on February 1 in a 2-0 victory at AFC Bournemouth. He's managed to avoid a card in his last five appearances, the last four of which have been in the league, but I think he's due one now.

On Wednesday, Mac Allister will face the Premier League's most fouled player this season, Newcastle's Bruno Guimaraes, who has been upended 85 times in 2024/25 - 28 times more than the second-most fouled player, teammate Anthony Gordon (57).

The Brazilian is fouled, on average, 3.3 times per game, and in December's reverse fixture at St James', he earned three free-kicks for his side.

Mac Allister committed three fouls in that match, the first of which was against Guimaraes, and he was booked for his second on Fabian Schar. That brought up his third career card against the Magpies having been cautioned home and away for previous club Brighton & Hove Albion in 2022/23, meaning he has been booked in three of his last five appearances v Newcastle.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Liverpool & Yes @ 6/4

This is a fixture that rarely lacks entertainment or goals as emphasised by the two scorelines last year; Liverpool won 4-2 at Anfield on New Year's Day 2024 and there were another six goals - this time equally split - when the sides met at St James' in December.

Both teams have been involved in 15 Premier League games this season that have seen both teams score, although Newcastle's percentage (58) of BTTS - Yes is higher than Liverpool (56) due to the Reds having played a match more.

The Reds kept a clean sheet against Man City on Sunday but had failed to record a shutout in their previous three league games while the Magpies are on a five-match run without one and have shipped seven goals across their last two and 14 since their last clean sheet against Wolves (2-0) on January 15.

Both teams have scored in the last three head-to-heads with Liverpool winning the first two of those and it's Slot's side who I expect to emerge with all three points on Wednesday night.

Arsenal's slip-up at home to West Ham United (0-1) on Saturday handed them the opportunity to go 11 points clear at the top on Sunday and the Merseyside club took their chance with both hands, convincingly beating Pep Guardiola's City the following day.

The Gunners face Nottingham Forest at the City Ground the same night that Liverpool host Newcastle and there is a good chance that the gap between the two increases by the time both matches are done.

Liverpool can afford to go all in on this game with their next one not for another week (Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their Uefa Champions League last-16 tie next Wednesday), so I expect a big performance at Anfield.

Of course, Newcastle are a difficult opponent and the likes of Isak and Gordon, both of whom scored in December's reverse fixture, are sure to cause Liverpool's defenders a whole host of problems in midweek.

However, Howe's charges are vulnerable at the back and it should be the hosts that emerge triumphant from a high-scoring encounter.

Offers

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