Milan vs Liverpool Prediction: Van Dijk to rise to the occasion in Italy

Arne Slot's honeymoon period as Liverpool head coach ended on Saturday with a 1-0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest. The Dutchman must now rouse his players for a Tuesday trip to the Stadio Guiseppe Meazza, where they take on Italian giants AC Milan in the Uefa Champions League (20:00, Amazon Prime).

Read on for my Milan vs Liverpool prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this San Siro clash between two of European football's heavyweights, boasting 13 European Cups/Champions Leagues between them.

Team News

Milan head coach Paulo Fonseca reinstated Theo Hernandez and Rafael Leao to the starting XI against Venezia on Saturday following the duo's exclusion from the side that lined up in a 2-2 draw at Lazio before the international break. Fonseca was handsomely rewarded as Leao assisted Hernandez's opener on the way to a 4-0 victory, the Portuguese tactician's first win since taking charge in the summer.

Fonseca must now decide whether to stick with a winning team, which would mean Fikayo Tomori, Yunus Musah, Samuel Chukwueze, and Alvaro Morata all having to settle for a place on the bench again. Morata is the most likely man to come in if there are any alterations, but ex-Chelsea striker Tammy Abraham, on a season-long loan from Serie A rivals AS Roma, scored on his full debut for I Rossoneri against Venezia and will be desperate to lead the line again on Tuesday.

Ismael Bennacer, Alessandro Florenzi, and Marco Sportiello are all ruled out through injury, while there are major doubts over the participation of Davide Calabria and Malick Thiaw.

Football Odds

Liverpool only have one injured player, 21-year-old midfielder Harvey Elliott, who is out until late October due to a fractured foot. Summer signing Federico Chiesa, meanwhile, is yet to make his debut for the Reds following his move from Juventus and could miss out again as he builds his fitness up.

There could be several changes to Liverpool's starting XI from the one that lined up against Nottingham Forest at Anfield on Saturday; there are unlikely to be too many in defence but Jarell Quansah and Kostas Tsimikas are potential replacements for Ibrahima Konate and Andy Robertson respectively.

Alexis Mac Allister was taken off on the hour mark against Forest and could be dropped to the bench on Tuesday, although Ryan Gravenberch and Dominik Szoboszlai's places are also under threat, despite both playing the duration on Saturday. Curtis Jones could come into the midfield to make his first start of the season, while Wataru Endo is another option to sit at the base of midfield.

There will surely be a change or two in attack, with none of the Reds' front three managing to get on the scoresheet last weekend - the first time at least one of Mohamed Salah, Luis Diaz, and Diogo Jota had failed to score in a game under Slot (at least two had struck in the first three). Jota is the most likely forward to drop out of the starting XI, with Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo vying for their first starts of the season.

Milan vs Liverpool Odds

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Milan have only won two of their last 11 Serie A matches and arrive into Tuesday's clash as underdogs, with odds of 13/5 giving the hosts an implied win probability of 27.8%, while Liverpool are 19/20, or a 51.3% chance, to beat Milan for a third time in a row, having beaten I Rossoneri home (3-2) and away (1-2) in the 2021/22 Champions League group stage en route to making the final that season under Slot's predecessor Jurgen Klopp.

The draw is priced at 11/4, both teams to score at 8/15, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

Salah (11/8) heads the anytime scorer market followed by Jota (13/8) and Nunez (7/4), while Morata (21/10) and Abraham (11/5) are considered Milan's most likely scorers.

Anytime Scorer - Virgil van Dijk @ 9/1

The big games call for the big names, and there are few players as capable of rising to the occasion as Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk. The 33-year-old is yet to get off the mark this season but he scored four times in 2023/24 including the winner in February's 1-0 Carabao Cup Final victory over Chelsea.

Van Dijk also struck in each of the Netherlands' pre-Euro 2024 friendlies against Canada and Iceland and put himself about in recent Nations League encounters with Bosnia & Herzegovina and Germany, shooting twice versus the former and once against the latter. He's also averaging 0.8 shots per game in this season's Premier League, taking one at home to Brentford - forcing a save from Bees goalkeeper Mark Flekken - and two against Forest on Saturday.

Milan are yet to concede from a set-piece in Serie A this term but Torino's powerful centre-forward Duvan Zapata highlighted a potential weakness in their backline last month as he evaded two defenders to head into Mike Maignan's net.

Van Dijk has come up trumps for Liverpool before in a big away Champions League game, heading in at the Allianz Arena against Bayern Munich in 2019, and at 9/1, I like the odds of the Dutch defender adding Milan and San Siro to his list of scalps.

Player to Receive a Card - Alexis Mac Allister @ 18/5

Mac Allister is by no means a guaranteed starter on Tuesday given he picked up a slight knock on international duty with Argentina and was substituted after 60 minutes on Saturday; however, it may well be that Slot took him off to manage his minutes ahead of a crucial contest at San Siro, where his ability to keep the ball could be vital.

Liverpool's midfield options are fairly limited, particularly with the injury sustained by Elliott earlier this month, while Endo doesn't appear to have the full faith of Slot - yet, at least.

As such, I think Mac Allister will get the nod again on Tuesday, and that makes him a viable candidate in the player card market.

The 25-year-old is a classy, technical player but he's not afraid to get stuck into challenges in true South American style. He was booked eight times in the Premier League last season, matching his 2022/23 total with Brighton & Hove Albion, and he was shown two yellows at the 2024 Copa America in the summer.

Mac Allister averaged 1.6 fouls per game in the English top flight last season and is already up to 1.8 this term.

The Reds midfielder's discipline will be tested severely on Tuesday as he comes up against the intimidating frame of Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who was fouled an average of 1.6 times per game in last season's Serie A and is already on 2.8 per game in 2024/25.

The Englishman made four appearances for Milan in the 2023/24 Champions League group stage and was fouled an average of 2.2 times per game, evidence of his ability to win free-kicks in Italy and further afield.

In the cauldron of San Siro, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mac Allister fly into the challenges and commit a few tactical fouls, which could bring about a card from the referee.

Offers

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