New Zealand v England Prediction: Even money Kiwis can prove to be a fruitful bet in First Test

New Zealand host England on Wednesday night on TNT Sports 4 with a start time of 22:00 at Wellington, knowing they can still qualify for the World Test Championship final if they're at their very best this Series.   

Jamie Pacheco is doubling up on his stakes on a New Zealand win and has identified Ben Stokes as the standout bet at 8/1 for England top bat honours for his New Zealand vs England Predictions in his First Test Preview for us at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

New Zealand are fresh from a shock 3-0 Series win in India. Considering that even a 2-1 defeat wouldn't have been the worst result, and you can see what a huge upset it really was. It gives them an outside chance of making the WTC final, remembering they won the inaugural edition by beating India at Lord's two years ago.   

That they won in India without the injured Kane Williamson makes it all far more remarkable. Instead, it was a combination of different batsmen contributing at key times, while the seamers were brilliant in the First Test, spinner Mitchell Santner almost won the Second Test by himself and fellow spinner Ajaz Patel did pretty much that in the Third, taking 11 wickets in the game.  

It's a sign of how conditions will be so different back home that neither of those two are in the squad for the First Test, despite those heroics a couple of weeks ago.  

Tim Southee leads for what will be his last Test Series before retiring from the format. There's no Trent Boult and spin bowling duties will be shared by Rachin Ravindra, Glenn Phillips, or both.   

Possible XI:  Latham, Conway, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Phillips, Southee, O'Rourke, Henry, Duffy/Smith.  

England 

England will have been disappointed to have lost 2-1 to Pakistan after winning the First Test. But they shouldn't be too harsh on themselves. They were up against two world-class spinners on wickets specifically prepared for the pair of them, while a couple of the Pakistani batsmen found some form just when they needed to.  

England may play one specialist spin bowler or none at all. If they do play one, Jack Leach is the best of the three (Shoaib Bashir and Rehan Ahmed are the others) if we're just looking at that particular skill, but the other two are better batsmen. Besides, the Selectors may feel it's time to move on from 33-year-old Leach. But it could be a costly mistake if that's the way they go.   

Brydon Carse impressed in Pakistan with his stamina and discipline and occasionally chipped in with some runs so looks likely to play alongside Gus Atkinson as the new-ball pairing. Chris Woakes rarely plays abroad but New Zealand wickets may be to his liking, and he could play in this game.  

Ollie Pope was likely to be given one more Series to remind us all what he can do anyway but his role might be a very different one here given what's happened in the keeper department these last few days: regular gloveman Jamie Smith misses the match to attend the birth of his baby while Jordan Cox fractured his thumb and won't play any part in the Series.  

England will surely call up a replacement (probably Durham's Ollie Robinson) and whoever it is will either play the Second Test, or Smith will be back for it. But for the time being, it's probably going to have to be Pope behind the stumps. That could result in Stokes and Pope swapping batting positions with the skipper at three and the Surrey man at six.  

Jacob Bethell was meant to have some time off after playing the recent ODI Series in the Caribbean but may have to play sooner than expected given there isn't another batsman in the squad.  

Possible XI: Duckett, Crawley, Stokes, Root, Brook, Pope, Bethell, Woakes, Atkinson, Carse, Leach/Bashir/Stone.  

Pitch and conditions  

The Kiwis have an extremely balanced record here at Wellington with 23 wins, 21 defeats and 24 draws since the first Test was played here back in 1930. Against England they've won four, lost two and drawn four here.  

But they've been extremely good here in Wellington of late. In their last eight, they beat the West Indies and Sri Lanka twice, Bangladesh, India and…England. Only Australia beat them here, which was earlier this year. We note Matt Henry had a good game with eight wickets in the match and some handy runs, while part-timer Phillips took five second-innings wickets of his own to go with a first-innings 71.  

This is a hard wicket to call in terms of first innings runs; 450 may be on the cards but so could sub-200.  

In February 2023 New Zealand won the Test by one run with James Anderson falling to the now-retired Neil Wagner when he needed one for a tied Test and two runs to win it. In that one, England scored 435/8 declared in the first innings and still went on to lose.   

New Zealand vs England First Test Odds

The Cox injury news hasn't changed the odds. It was evens the pair (50% implied probability) before the weekend and it still is now.  

The draw is 7/1, implied probability of 12.5%, but there's been just one in the last 12 here in Wellington, so that looks somewhat unlikely. Especially given how England play the game and their desire to always win, even if it means sometimes losing, rather than accepting a draw as a good result.  

So, which of the two identical prices is the better one?  

The one on New Zealand.  

England have admittedly won four of the last six between them but then again, four of those were in the UK and only two here in New Zealand, where they shared the spoils in a drawn Series.   

It's also true that England have a far superior record in Tests overall against the Black Caps over the years but many of those results were decades before the Kiwis became the extremely solid unit they have been for the past 15 years or so.  

The main reasons for a punt on the hosts are home advantage, a stronger seam attack, no injury concerns to deal with and the momentum and confidence that came with that historic 3-0 Series win in India not long ago.  

All of these are good enough reasons to want to side with the hosts at odds that suggest this a coin toss.  

England First Innings Top Batsman   

If I had to pick the two men most likely to top-score for England it would be either Joe Root (11/4) or Harry Brook (3/1). But Root, as pointed out before in this column, has an extremely poor record at top scoring in the first innings of Tests while Brook looks short enough at those odds.  

Ben Duckett (100/30) is pretty solid so worthy of respect and Crawley looks big at 5/1, but he can blow hot and cold. 

Besides, the Kiwi seamers may be at their most dangerous at the start of the innings so openers may be worth dodging for the time being.  

Pope at 5/1 is also a swerve given his extra responsibilities we've already mentioned, to go with his lack of form.   

All of which makes us think Stokes is the value at 8/1. The less said about scores of 1, 37, 12 and 3 in four knocks against Pakistan last month the better, but he was coming off a long injury lay-off, so that can be excused.   

He has a pretty good record against New Zealand. His average of 41 against them is only bettered by his record against the Windies (47) and South Africa (45) and in 11 Tests against them he has a century and five fifties, all very solid numbers.  

A promotion to bat higher than six, a real possibility as discussed already, will do his chances no harm at all and he seems that little bit more motivated when playing against the country where he was born, so that's another positive.  

For interest's sake, the 8/1 with Betfred is the best price on the market about Stokes top-scoring with some firms going just 5/1 and most being around the 6/1 mark. We like his chances anyway and given his price is considerably bigger here than anywhere else, you're certainly getting a value bet.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...