Pakistan v England Prediction: Back Jack to excel at his one trade in 2nd Test

It’s the Second Test at Multan starting at 06:00 on Tuesday with live broadcast on Sky Sports Cricket as England look to go 2-0 up in the Series after those First Test heroics, and a revamped Pakistan look to bounce back.  

Jamie Pacheco thinks a Pakistani batsman is being seriously underrated at 11/1 and that the unassuming Jack Leach can do his thing once again as he previews the match and provides us with his Pakistan vs England Prediction. Read on for a big price boost on this match at the bottom of the article...

*You can check out all of our markets and Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

1st Test Recap:

It’s hard to know where to start in what was one of the most remarkable Tests of recent times.  In a nutshell, it looked like it was heading for a draw for large parts of the match before England put together a monster score, breaking all sorts of records in the process. They then allowed themselves enough time in the match to bowl Pakistan out a second time and managed just that with the hosts showing exactly the sort of complacency that resulted in them losing 2-0 to Bangladesh just before this match and now going 11 matches at home without a win.

As for our bets, Mohammad Rizwan and Jamie Smith were always very unlikely to match huge scores by the batsmen who came in before them, while Abrar Ahmed had a Test to forget for Pakistan that started with him going wicketless and ended with him being taken ill on day four of the game.

In the end it was our bet on England at 11/10 that came good, somewhat ironic given they reached about 25/1 in-play and was therefore probably the least likely of the four to win. It was that sort of game.

Pakistan

Only Pakistan will know how they lost that Test from the position they were in but lose it they did.

So out goes the baby with the bathwater. They have a new Selection Committee that somewhat bizarrely includes former umpire Aleem Dar on it.  Sure, the man knows a thing or two about international cricket and the Pakistani players particularly well but it’s still a somewhat odd to appoint him for such a role when he’s only just quit being an international umpire.

Out go Shaheen Shah Afridi and Naseem Shah. There’s no denying they both had poor Tests, taking 1-120 and 2-157 respectively but then again, so did just about every bowler on that track.  And yes, fatigue will have played its part in the decision but maybe it was more a concern about their long-term form, which is fair enough, because they’ve both gone off the boil in recent times.

There’s also no Babar Azam, which is pretty hard to believe. Scores of 30 and 5 in the match were disappointing by his standards given how easily others scored runs here (there were five fifties, three centuries, one double hundred, and one triple hundred in the match) but still.

You’d think you’d want one of the top batsmen in the world and one of the greatest in Pakistan’s history to be out there in a must-win Test but then again, his form has tailed off in recent times, too. The official line is that he’s being rested. But rested for what? Are there any bigger games for the team than a home Test against England when they’re 1-0 down?

It will be interesting to see when he gets another go.

Ahmed will miss the match with illness. Pakistan have already named their side for Tuesday, which contains three frontline spinners.

Possible XI: Shafique, Ayub, Masood, Ghulam, Shakeel, Rizwan, Agha, Jamal, Noman Ali, Sajid Khan, Zahid Mahmood.

England

A great win for England for lots of reasons, among them the fact they bounced back from a loss to Sri Lanka just a few weeks ago at home that drew plenty of criticism.

Unlike Pakistan, when England say a player is rested, they mean it. Gus Atkinson put in a shift for England with 39 overs in the match that yielded four important wickets and gets a break. Unsurprising given he’s not that used to Test cricket, much less to these sorts of wickets in stifling conditions. Matthew Potts is his direct replacement.

And Ben Stokes returns. He’ll bat at six and will also bowl, the question being: how much?

So Jamie Smith goes back to seven and Chris Woakes is left out to accommodate the returning skipper.

Shoaib Bashir can count himself somewhat lucky to have kept his place after a quiet Test where he only took one wicket despite the hosts being bowled out twice. So let’s see if his performance improves here.

Possible XI: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Potts, Carse, Bashir, Leach.

Pitch and conditions

The same Multan pitch used for the First Test will be used once again for the Second.

That’s pretty rare to see but it will be almost impossible for it to be as flat as it was for the first one, which can only be a good thing for the neutral.

There were some cracks appearing late in the match which won’t have had time to fix themselves and the weather remains hot. So all in all, we may see some turn, uneven bounce and balls misbehave from much earlier on in proceedings this time.

But one thing is for sure: you want to be batting first.

Pakistan vs England 2nd Test Odds

England have been eased from 11/10 to 8/11 (58% probability), while Pakistan went from 6/4 to 11/5 (31%). The draw is out to 5/1 (17%) from 4/1.

All three price changes make sense in their own right. Take the draw. If you’re not going to get a draw at Multan after the first two innings produced almost 1400 runs, then when will you get one here? Especially not on a re-used pitch.

There’s plenty to like about England’s personnel, hunger, tactics and discipline. But 8/11 about England away from home?  That’s just too short.

Party because we fear a Pakistan backlash. Three of the four omitted players were badly out of form and maybe an injection of new blood with better form, more desire and confidence is exactly what they need; it’s hard to tell.

The draw may look on the big side to some if the wicket holds up. But that’s somewhat countered by England’s style of play where they’d always rather go for the win, even if they lose some along the way, than settle for a draw.

So with concerns about all three outcomes at the prices, we’re best off leaving the main market alone.

Pakistan Top Batsman

Salman Agha scored 104 and 63 in the match from number seven. The first wasn’t enough to beat Shan Masood’s 151 but the second was good enough for a clear second-innings top bat win.

Of course, the pitch could play as well as it did for the first game and that someone is already on 100-plus by the time he comes to the crease.

But we have to suspect that it won’t and consider that the absence of Babar, out of form or otherwise, will help his cause. Agha played beautifully last week in those two knocks and has strong career numbers too with an average of 47 and three centuries and eight fifties, from just 15 Tests.

His batting position is a bit of a concern, but he may be promoted above Mohammad Rizwan here anyway.

And if you’re still not completely convinced, you can at least take consolation from the fact you’re getting a far bigger price at Betfred than elsewhere. He’s 13/2 and 15/2 at other major bookies but 11/1 here.