Raiders vs Sharks Prediction: Lightning to strike twice? Two tips say ‘no’

The Canberra Raiders learned first-hand last Sunday that the Minor Premiership counts for nothing when it comes to the NRL Finals. In an epic contest they threw away a 28-12 lead to lose 29-28 to the Brisbane Broncos in a prolonged golden-point classic. Now they are in last-chance saloon as they prepare to host the Cronulla Sharks at GIO Stadium on Saturday (19:50 local, 10:50 BST, live on Sky Sports Mix).

Can Ricky Stuart motivate his side to get back up off the canvas after that controversial 94-minute heartbreak? My Raiders vs Sharks predictions follow with full team news and Betfred’s latest match odds.

Raiders vs Sharks Odds

The Raiders were 4/6 to win last week’s contest against the Broncos, but are a 4/7 shot for the victory this time around, with the bookies feeling a home win is more likely on Saturday. The implied probability of that 4/7 is 63.6%.

You can back the Sharks for a win in 80 minutes at 6/4, with a repeat of last week’s golden-point drama backable at 18/1.

The regular two-way handicap mark is placed at 6.5 points in the Sharks’ favour. Cronulla are 4/5 to win with the extra edge, with the Raiders 20/21 to overcome the disadvantage.

Team News

Stuart will not be coaxed into making changes, despite the heartache experienced last week.

He made 11 switches to the side last week, having previously rested a number of his lead stars following the early clinching of the Minor Premiership. That now looks like a great move, with the loss of the bye this weekend taxing his squad more than he would have hoped.

So it’s a largely fresh Raiders squad despite them having been put through 94 minutes of highs and lows against the Broncos, and ‘Sticky’ is set to run out the same 17 as he did six days prior.

That means former Warrington Wolves back-rower Matty Nicholson is listed as the 18th player again, with Kaeo Weekes, Ethan Stranger, Jamal Fogarty and Tom Starling providing the spine of the side. Corey Horsburgh continues at lock, with Morgan Smithies on the interchange bench.

For the Sharks and their boss Craig Fitzgibbon, this is where things start to become tougher following their Week One win over the Sydney Roosters in the Shire.

They need to win back-to-back away games to make it to the Grand Final, but one thing in their favour is the inclusion in their initial 22-player squad of Tom Hazelton.

The prop forward is aiming to return from a knee injury, but Fitzgibbon could go with an unchanged lineup if the front-rower doesn’t make it.

Rugby League Odds

Handicap 2-way Alt 2: Raiders -12.5 @ 9/5

The old saying suggests that lightning doesn’t strike twice in the same place, and Canberra fans will be hoping that that bears out this weekend.

The first 70 minutes or so of that wonderful match went pretty much as I’d expected, with the Raiders a side who can really get a roll on but also let in the opposition for short spells.

But off the back of such an episode, I can’t see them letting up if they get into a similar situation on Saturday. Once they get ahead, expect them to keep up that momentum.

It helps, too, that they’re up against a Sharks team who don’t really carry the same threats as Brisbane, despite having finished on the same number of points as the Broncos.

Fitzgibbon looks for more solid performances out of his troops, but only against the Bulldogs in round 27 did they keep a team below double figures in the entire regular season,

In the nation’s capital, they’re coming up against the best team in the league. They’re also facing a wounded animal. And I think the Raiders get ahead in this one but they simply do not let up.

Just the one lightning strike here, folks. And at 9/5, I like the two-score handicap bet on the Raiders.

Sharks Under 16.5 Points @ 6/5

Cronulla have enough about them to cause trouble, with Nicho Hynes and Braydon Trindall having served up plenty of chances for their attacking edges this season on the back of what can be a fairly relentless pack.

But if they’re chasing the game here, I’m backing the Raiders to keep them at arm’s length defensively.

So much about this fixture weighs on Canberra’s response, and that need to stay on it until the last moment will never have been more apparent than it has been in the last six days.

To that end, I’m happy to back the 6/5 about the home side limiting the Sharks to fewer than 17 points at an implied probability of 45.5%.

You can read all our latest Rugby League Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights Rugby League content hub.