US Horse Racing Tips: Paul has his eye on two runners for Thursday

Paul Quigley, our US Horse Racing expert, is back on Thursday to provide his first selections of the week and he likes the look of two runners at Mahoning Valley and Turf Paradise.

You can check out his latest US Horse Racing Tips below.

20:03 Mahoning Valley (Race 7) – Colonel Vargo (6) @ SP

The standard setter at this level is Thunderian (7). He was a fine second over five furlongs on his local return last month. The extra distance today will suit. At face value, Ruffin (1) has a tough task to reverse the almost four lengths he was beaten by him.

There are angles in his favour. He does run first time for a trainer who has been improving horses lately. In addition, there is a chance he makes the lead on his own. Colonel Vargo (6) is also speedy by may be able to sit just off him. He’s won back to back starts since switching to Mahoning Valley. This is a step up from claiming company. Judging by the runners he has been beating, he may be up to the class rise. His trainer is in in fine form.      

A speed duel from Ruffin (1) and Colonel Vargo (6) could set things up for a runner from off the pace like Thunderian (7) and Don't Stop (5). The last named is a horse for course. He’s ran big in a pair of allowance events since returning here. Last month, he was a clear-cut winner in a fast time. He’s arguably best on wet tracks so any winter showers will help his chances. Bold Buckeye (2) is another possible late player.    

Dr Schuster (3) and Jimmy the Hat (8) are tough reads. The first named has been running over a mile. If he can reproduce his best over six furlongs, he can go close. He is a five time winner, all on synthetics. He’s not ran well in admittedly a few tries on dirt.

*You can bet on all of Today's Horse Races over at betfred.com

22:08 Turf Paradise (Race 5) – Little to No Money (6) @ SP

A trio of these ran in a maiden here on 11 November. Gifted Valor (1) did the best of them finishing third. He has the early speed to make the most of his rail draw. That said, it will be no surprise if Nitro Boost (7) reversed the form. He improved off his debut at Emerald Downs in the summer. He’s worked well since and may be a bit fitter second time back. Al's Big Boy (3) took some money on what was his career debut so may be a lot better than that result suggests.   

Take out the four length winner and that local maiden doesn’t look that deep. The one Little to No Money (6) ran fourth in at Albuquerque seems a tad stronger. The second went close next time and the third scored at Zia Park. He was in the mix for a long way pressing the early fractions, where the winner came from some way back. His trainer has had two winners from only ten starters at this meet.     

Those that race raced before are beatable. That means the trio of debutants have to be reckoned with. The trainer of Polo Loco (4) has the good record with first time starters. Less so the handlers of Maestro Italiano (2) and Monster Matt (5). A market move for any of them may be significant.