US Horse Racing Tips: Paul marks your Saturday Stateside card

17:17 Aqueduct (Race 3) - Zany @ SP

Zany (3) broke her maiden on debut at Gulfstream last month. She did it by six lengths in wire to wire fashion. The placed horses have come back to run well suggesting it was a decent race. This stake hasn’t come up deep which may be the reason why her Todd Pletcher runs her back quickly and shipped her to New York. She steps up markedly in trip second time out. Interestingly, her dam won a Grade 3 over today’s course and distance.

As well as Zany (3), trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole have Believable (6) entered. She edged out Concurrently (4) in a maiden on debut. Shilling (2) seemed to beat her on the square by four lengths in a stake here next time. She may improve now racing in blinkers. Shilling (2) did make the lead pretty easily last time. Her rider may have to work out a trip from stalk mode with Zany (3) likely to be faster early on.

Concurrently (4) made up for losing a tight one to Believable (6) by going one better next time. She is improving and goes for a top trainer and jockey. Jumping the Gun (1) ran second in a stake at Delaware in October. The speed figure she ran was higher than the ones achieved by the fillies racing in New York.

The field is rounded out by Ivy Girl (5). She was a clear-cut winner of a maiden claimer here last month. This field hasn’t come up deep so her connections are right to take their chances.

18:13 Aqueduct (Race 5) - El Grande O @ SP

El Grande O (1) was Grade 3 placed over a mile earlier in his career. He’s just as effective as a sprinter. In October, he beat stablemate Acoustic Ave (3) by a head in a conditions event over today’s course and distance. He’s been kept fresh for this race. He has some tactical speed and has no problem running from the rail. Old rival Acoustic Ave (3) has ran twice since, running third in a stake for New York breeds last time.

At his best, Full Moon Madness (2) would be a handful in this spot. He won a Grade 3 here in March and a stake at Delaware in June. His two starts since he returned in September have been below par. They weren’t awful by any means and he had wide trips.

The returning Just Beat the Odds (4) may be on the lead on his own. He’s not raced since two big efforts in the spring. His trainer has a fine record with lay-off horses. He defied an even longer absence when winning here in March. He’s interesting and may be the best alternative to El Grande O (1).

St. Jude (5) has won two of his last three starts. The speed figures he’s been running at Delaware suggest he can compete despite the class rise. Subrogate (6) was not at his best in two starts last month including when just behind Full Moon Madness (2).

19:39 Aqueduct (Race 8) - Hot Currency @ SP

There is a massive purse on offer considering the level of form of even the best of these. Two of these fillies have already won stakes. Oh (1) was a winner at Finger Lakes in September. The speed figure she ran was similar to what she ran when winning at Saratoga on debut.

Getting another furlong-and-a-half is a slight worry with her. At least she is proven on the footing. She's Country (11) tries the dirt for the first time after winning a stake on the turf here last month. If she can transfer her from, she will be right there.  Fancy Lights (2) finished just behind her last time. She is related to dirt winners so may handle the surface switch.

There are a trio of interesting last time out maiden winners in here. All of them have upside. Daniella Marie (10) improved second time out to slam a field here last month. Braverthanubelieve (8) graduated on her only start to date. That came in the slop.

Hot Currency (10) looked much improved racing in blinkers first time. She has to be reckoned with off that six-length score. The chances are she gets a good trip under Flavien Prat.

Kaz Farm Girl (4) may improve off an eventful debut. She may outrun likely big odds. Greyjoy (6) a last-time turf maiden winner has the pedigree to run her race on the dirt.

20:08 Aqueduct (Race 9) - Igniter @ SP

This is a deep and a competitive renewal. Paladin (2) may go off favourite. He was a well backed favourite on debut. His backers were rewarded but only after intervention from the stewards as he went down by a head to Renegade (9). He’s very likely to improve off that but so is the horse that beat him who has only had two starts.

Renegade (9) is trained by Todd Pletcher who has two more possibilities in here. Courting (6) is regally bred and cost a fortune at auction. He set a controlled tempo on when breaking his maiden here last month. His pedigree and running style suggests he’s a strong stayer. He is one of the more likely winners. His stablemate Grittiness (4) ran second to him last time. He kept on well suggesting stepping up to nine furlongs will suit.

In terms of achievement, Talkin (11) has achieved most so far. He beat a talented colt on debut at Saratoga in August. Five weeks later, he ran second albeit at a safe distance in The Grade 1 Champagne at Aqueduct. His connections skipped a tilt at The Breeders’ Cup to point to this race.

Igniter (7) draws better but not ideally. He shaped well on debut and improved second time out. In a maiden here in September, he graduated here with the debuting Courting (6) back in fourth. He comes off a series of strong morning workouts. He's less of a certain stayer than some in here but may be worth chancing.

Day One Starter (1) broke his maiden looking like a nice prospect second time out. He ran poorly in a stake next time. I Did I Did (3) ran better in his last start. He ran well the way the race was run in a Grade 3 at Churchill. He’s the type to make the frame at a decent price if he gets patient ride from Joel Rosario. In contrast, for Balboa (10) to run big he needs to make the lead on his own.

20:37 Aqueduct (Race 10) - Phileas Fogg @ SP

This once marquee race has been downgraded to a Grade 2 over recent years. As a result, there is no superstar entered but a there are a few ways to go. The outside drawn pair are likely to head the market.

Take out a troubled trip in a Grade 1 and Bishops Bay (7) has rattled up a five timer. He has been well placed by his trainer Brad Cox. The five year old made it two from two over course and distance when taking a Grade 3 here last month. It can be argued Phileas Fogg (6) has a classier CV than him. He won a Grade 2 at Saratoga in July. He’s been placed in a pair of top class events subsequently. If he can be as effective cutting back in distance, he can get back to winning ways.

It can be argued that Bishops Bay (7) has been beating soft fields and Phileas Fogg (6) is better over further. That may open the door to others in here. Crazy Mason (4) won a Grade 2 here in April. He’s ran well in defeat in all his starts in New York subsequently. He gets behind and comes running late. Some speed to chase down will help his chances.

The rest of this field go up in class but can figure if things go their way. Doc Sullivan (1) is a New York bred at the top of his game. He got his preferred wet track last month and was a wide margin winner of a state bred stake. Pentathlon (3) also scored locally last time and over today’s distance. He is a four-year-old who may be peaking at the right time for this race.

Mika (2) is the wildcard in here. The penny has suddenly dropped with him. He’s won his last two starts by an aggregate of 23 lengths. His last win at Laurel was backed up with a big speed figure. He may be up to today’s level.

21:07 Aqueduct (Race 11) - Parker Boone @ SP / Combat Mission each-way @ SP

Pennsylvania shipper Parker Boone (2) could be a short-priced favourite on career start number two. He blew away a field of maidens at Parx on debut by a dozen lengths. The placed horses have come back to run well. Looking at his pedigree, he should have no problem going from six to seven furlongs. He probably needs to break as well as there is other speed in here.

The best of the local form has come on the turf. Spirit of New York (7) and Chummers (1) ran fourth and six in a state bred event over a mile last month. Spirit of New York (7) didn’t seem to quite get home so the cut back in distance will suit. Like Chummers (1), he has a pedigree that suggests he will handle the dirt for the first time. It is an issue if in the case of Spirit of New York (7) he is the second favourite.

With such a big purse on offer, there is a raiding party who last raced at Finger Lakes. Hey Pal (11) broke his maiden by double-digit lengths over a mile last month. He did get it easy on the lead.

He’s improving and seems a better runner than the one behind Diamond Child (4) a couple of times in the autumn. Diamond Child (4) is speedy but may be softened up by Parker Boone (2). Fellow upstate shipper Muscle Shoals (8) is unbeaten in two starts including a stake at Finger Lakes. He runs as if he’ll improve for more ground and like Hey Pal (11) is a place chance.

Todd Pletcher’s Froutien (3) may rebound in blinkers after running a shocker in a stake. Dinghy Bar (10) and Combat Mission (13) are maidens. The first named tries the dirt after a trio of placed efforts on the turf. Combat Mission (13) has caught deep fields in his last two starts. He may improve now racing in blinkers for the first time. If Parker Boone (2) is a very short price, he may be the play each way.

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Paul Quigley is a long-time US racing fan and tipster. He provides US Horse Racing Tips for Betfred Insights as well as working for Betfred TV...