NAP of the Day: Owen sees a big Opportunity at Carlisle

A highly-disappointing return from the well-backed Hollywell Stream at Wolverhampton on Friday evening. I suspect that wasn't her true running, for one reason or another.

I'm hopeful of a swift return to the winners' enclosure for NAP of the Day followers on Saturday, however, courtesy of one at Carlisle.

If I could only back one horse on Saturday, it would be OPPORTUNITY at Carlisle.

William Haggas' four-year-old goes in the opener in Cumbria - a 0-105 handicap over 1m3f - and I expect him to take all the beating.

I'll be very, very surprised if the son of Frankel, who cost owners Wathnan Racing a cool 475k guineas back in October 2023, isn't a good bit ahead of his current mark of 92.

His beating of Rahiebb at Haydock in April last year, on just the second start of his career and first at three, suggests as much. And then some.

The runner-up, rated 90 at the time, went on to place in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot and the Betfred St Leger at Doncaster in the second half of the season, rising 25lbs in the handicap. One race, one win for Roger Varian's son of Frankel this year - in the G2 Yorkshire Cup at the Dante Festival a fortnight ago.

Of course, Rahiebb has improved since his defeat to the selection, so I'm not suggesting we've got 25lbs in hand. However, I'm convinced he has at least a quarter of that.

His subsequent fourth in the Cocked Hat at Goodwood is strong form, too. He was fourth, beaten eight-and-a-half lengths, but the performance needs marking up. A poor break put him on the backfoot from the word go, and he was badly hampered at around the two-furlong pole. Once back in the clear, when it was far too late in the day, he kept on nicely.

Clearly something was amiss in the King Edward VII Stakes. His performance was too bad to be true, leading to a gelding operation the following month. He wasn't seen again until this May, exactly 323 days later.

His return was at Ascot, in a Class 3 handicap off a reduced rating of 91, and he emerged from it with plenty of credit. Third of 14, two-and-a-half lengths off the pace but staying on at the finish.

Considering it was his first run in so long, after being gelded, there ought to be a significant amount of improvement to come. There often is with these Haggas horses.

As far as I'm concerned, It'll take a good one to beat him.

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