NAP of the Day: Strong evidence for Empirical at Nottingham

A disappointing effort from Alma Latina at Epsom on Wednesday evening. The market suggested it was coming, and it arrived. Unfortunately.

We dust off and go again on Thursday, with the NAP of the Day coming from the seven-race card at Nottingham.

I'm expecting a big run from EMPIRICAL at Nottingham on Thursday.

Considering his €260k price tag, Ed Walker's three-year-old son of Kingman has been very disappointing to date.

However, a gelding operation in early February, just days after the third run of his career which qualified him for handicaps, and the application of cheekpieces brought about a much-improved performance over course and distance three months later.

He was third of seven at Colwick Park, just a length-and-a-half off the winner. And that was? Valkyrie Storm, in receipt of seven pounds courtesy of Harry Vigors' claim. She's not fared too badly in the meantime off 4lbs higher.

The runner-up was Lillie Margot, who went in off the same mark next time out and is now rated 5lbs higher, so it's relatively strong form.

The selection ought to be marked up, too, given the way the race panned out. His chance was all but over from the word go, as he broke slowly and was forced to race at the rear of the seven-strong field, on the rail, with nowhere to go. He looked a little outpaced when push came to shove, but finished very, very strongly. In another half-a-furlong, he'd have won it.

I think the handicapper's decision to leave this well-bred, well-connected gelding on the same mark is a lenient one. I'm confident it underestimates him.

Enough for him to win this 0-70 handicap? That's the million-dollar question.

It's not an easy race for the grade. Mereside Princess is going great guns and she should run another big race. The same applies to Adrian Nicholls' Thornaby Annie.

But as far as I'm concerned, nothing in this field has as much scope as the selection, who I expect to take a good bit of beating if not blowing the start. That's crucial.

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