Nap of the Day: Take a Risk at Generous odds

It's exactly a week until the 2026 Cheltenham Festival, so let's try and build some much-needed momentum ahead of those unrivalled four days in the Cotswolds.

The Nap of the Day takes me to Leopardstown on Tuesday, as a Gordon Elliott-trained hurdling debutant is backed to down a warm favourite in the opener.

The opener at Leopardstown on Tuesday is a 2m5f maiden hurdle that I thought looked a match between Le Moulin Rouge and Generous Risk. The market is now suggesting otherwise, but we'll get to that...

Le Moulin Rouge, a five-year-old son of Nirvana Du Berlais for Paul Nolan, has already run twice over hurdles, including when runner-up to the 131-rated Lazare De Star over just shy of course and distance over Christmas.

That's a decent level of form he brings to the table, so I expect him to prove popular with punters - but I've got a couple of concerns.

Firstly, he's previously been withdrawn on account of soft/heavy ground, which is expected in Dublin. Second of all, that aforementioned run over Christmas was 65 days ago. The absence has me wondering about an issue in the meantime.

It is, ironically, a risk to trust in Gordon Elliott's six-year-old No Risk At All gelding as he's yet to jump a hurdle in public, but if his bumper form translates over timber, he ought to be good enough in this company.

Gigginstown's £250k purchase made his debut under rules in a Cork bumper back in April last year, and returned to action 222 days later at Fairyhouse at the beginning of the current National Hunt season.

He was runner-up in County Meath, to stablemate Keep Him Company who has developed into one of, if not the yard's leading light for the Champion Bumper at next week's Cheltenham Festival. He was just in front of the odds-on Premier Division, also trained out of Cullentra. That one did the form no harm at Leopardstown on Boxing Day next time out.

I suppose Generous Risk's own run during Christmas, at Leopardstown on December 27, was a bit underwhelming, but it was a decent contest and he was hardly disgraced in third, just over three lengths off the winner who's since bolted up.

Similar comments apply to his latest outing at the Dublin Racing Festival, as he beat just one of six Grade 2 rivals. This was another good race though, and he wasn't disgraced again.

He'll enjoy navigating these calmer waters as, like I've already said, I believe he has only the one horse to beat. Jet To Monte Carlo for Emmet Mullins has been subject to a considerable amount of support this morning, which is a concern, but the fact remains he needs to take a big step forward.

Le Moulin Rouge is no slouch, so unless he really hates conditions and/or badly needs the run as I've alluded to, it'll take a bit of winning for Generous Risk. I do think the betting underestimates our chances, though...

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