World Cup Golden Ball Odds: Will Messi be the main man for a third time?

The Golden Ball is the most prestigious individual award handed out at World Cups, given to the best player of the tournament. Previous winners include Romario, Ronaldo (R9), Zinedine Zidane and reigning champion Lionel Messi.

Below are the World Cup Golden Ball Odds as I assess some of the top contenders to scoop the award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America.

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World Cup Odds

Harry Kane (ENG) @ 7/1

Harry Kane enjoyed a stellar 2025/26 season with Bayern Munich, scoring 61 goals in 51 appearances across all competitions, and he's a former World Cup Golden Boot winner, top-scoring at the 2018 tournament in Russia.

The Three Lions skipper hasn't impressed at the last couple of major international events, though, scoring just twice at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, and only once from open play, while he only went one better at Euro 2024, netting three times, twice from open play, although that was enough to share the Golden Boot.

Kane's often looked lethargic at tournaments, with the club season having taken its toll, so I'm wary of his chances of being the best player this summer, although if his country do lift the trophy, it's likely he'll have played a major role, putting him in the driving seat for the Golden Ball.

Lamine Yamal (ESP) @ 8/1

Barcelona star Lamine Yamal hasn't played since 22 April owing to a hamstring injury, but he could be back fit for Spain's opening game against Cape Verde on 15 June, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him hit top form straight away.

The 18-year-old arrives to his first World Cup on the back of 24 goals and 17 assists in 45 appearances for his club side last term, and in his first major tournament for Spain, Euro 2024, he was named the best young player.

The stage is set for him in North America, and with La Roja favourites to lift the trophy, all roads lead to the Golden Ball for Yamal.

Kylian Mbappe (FRA) @ 9/1

Like Kane, Kylian Mbappe was prolific last season, scoring 42 goals in 44 games for Real Madrid, and also like the England man, he's a previous winner of the Golden Boot, netting eight times in Qatar four years ago.

The French superstar would've collected the Golden Ball had his country beaten Argentina in the final, but with La Albiceleste triumphing on penalties, Messi received the award instead, and Mbappe had to settle for the Silver Ball.

France are fancied to go far this summer, and Mbappe is likely to lead the way for goals, so he's an obvious candidate to go one better this year and snag the Golden Ball.

Michael Olise (FRA) @ 10/1

Mbappe's international teammate, Michael Olise, may have something to say about being Les Bleus' main man.

The Bayern playmaker was the biggest star in Germany last season, trumping Kane to be awarded the Bundesliga Player of the Season, and he warmed up for the World Cup with a hat-trick in France's 3-0 victory over Northern Ireland last week.

With 22 goals and 31 assists in 52 club outings, Olise proved he can do it all at club level, but now he must showcase his abilities on the world stage, in his first international tournament.

I have no doubts he will perform at a high level in North America, but will he be allowed to outshine Mbappe? We will have to wait and see.

Lionel Messi (ARG) @ 11/1

The only two-time winner of the award, Messi was given the Golden Ball in 2014, despite Argentina losing the final to Germany in Brazil, and then again eight years later as he finally led his country to World Cup glory.

At 38 years old, Messi's best years are behind him, but can you ever truly back against the GOAT?

Argentina still look strong, and conditions may suit them in North America.

Certainly, I wouldn't put it past Messi to make it a hat-trick of Golden Balls this summer.

Vinicius Jr. (BRA) @ 16/1

Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr. has flattered to deceive on the international stage, scoring just once at the 2022 World Cup and only twice in qualifying for the 2026 edition.

Still, he remains one of the world's best attackers, and his flamboyant nature lends itself well to a Golden Ball.

Under his former Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti, Vinicius Jr. should feel the backing of the man in the dugout, and he'll arrive to the World Cup in a confident mood after striking 22 times for his club side last season.

Raphinha (BRA) @ 20/1

The Real Madrid star's La Liga rival and international teammate, Barcelona's Raphinha, could rival him for the Golden Ball.

Raphinha endured an injury-hit 2025/26 campaign but still managed to score 21 goals in 33 games, and he starred for Brazil in qualifying, netting five times, so he has every right to regard himself as the Selecao's main man, and at 20/1, he's offering plenty of value in the Golden Ball market.