Weekend Serie A Betting Tips: Three Best Bets from Matchday 20

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella went four of five in his bets last weekend, which is pretty darn good!

This week he has his usual list of three Best Bets from across the top-flight in Italy ahead of his full preview of AC Milan vs Roma later this week...

The battle between Inter and Juventus continues as last weekend the Neroazzurri were crowned ‘Campione d'Inverno’ (winter champions) following furious VAR controversies.

On Saturday they take the short trip to Monza whereas Juventus will play 48-hours later against Sassuolo, incidentally the last team who managed to get the better of the Turin side.

• Can Inter stay top amid the controversies?
• Atalanta are going for fourth spot
• Bianconeri face their nemesis

Monza vs Internazionale (Saturday, time: ex 19:45)

Inter’s dramatic, stoppage-time win against Verona (with the Scaligeri missing a penalty in the 100th minute), and the polemics that followed Frattesi’s goal, overshadowed a lacklustre performance by the Neroazzurri. As often happened this season Simone Inzaghi’s men scored early, thanks to the returning Lautaro Martinez (16 goals so far), but on Saturday lacked the energy to put the game to bed.

Are Inter suffering from fatigue? They’ve collected three wins in the last six games, but only a clean sheet (at home vs Lecce) in the last four matches. With Juventus breathing down their neck, the Neroazzurri can’t rest on their laurels, as Monza has proven to be a tricky opponent for them. Last year Raffaele Palladino’s side collected four points against Inter and have also taken some important scalps in front of their crowd (beating Juventus and Napoli last season).

Inter have played three successive games in Serie A with less than three goals, but on the other hand Monza have only been involved in two 0-0 draws in 57 Serie A games. Goals should be on the card, considering the hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five Serie A home games. But don’t discard the Brianzoli putting one past Yann Sommer, let’s go for Both Teams To Score at 10/11.

Atalanta vs Frosinone (Monday, time: 19:45)

After their hard fought 1-1 draw in Rome, Atalanta need a win if they want to remain within touching distance of the fourth spot. Can Frosinone, who’ve got the worst away record in Italy’s top flight, stop them?

At the Gewiss Stadium Gianpiero Gasperini’s men have been extremely efficient this season: nine wins, two draws and just two defeats (against Inter and Napoli) in all competitions.

The Bergamaschi play an attacking style of football, which helps them to dominate home games and create chances. This season at home they have collected three points against teams in the bottom half of the table: Lecce, Salernitana, Genoa and Cagliari.

Newly promoted Frosinone have collected 19 points, a tally that few would have predicted at the beginning of the season. Their vibrant and attacking style of play, has earned them many plaudits and five, deserved, victories. Having failed to score only three times this season (against Inter, Roma and Torino), Frosinone have the second-best attack, behind Sassuolo, amongst the clubs that occupy the right-hand side of the table.

However, they’ve only kept two clean sheets and are winless in six games.

In this case, Atalanta’s superior experience, coupled with their many options coming from the bench, could be the decisive factor.

Two thirds of Atalanta’s goals (20) this season have come in the second halves. The Bergamaschi often grow as the games go on: they’ve got the second-highest points tally in the second 45 minutes in Serie A.

Frosinone’s numbers are almost diametrically opposite. They’ve conceded 19 times in the second halves of games and in 58% of their matches they’ve let in two goals or more.

I fancy Atalanta and under 3.5 goals at 6/5.

Juventus vs Sassuolo (Tuesday, time: 19:45)

Juve’s sole defeat of the season came at the hands of Sassuolo back in September. After that debacle (4-2 for the Neroverdi), Massimiliano Allegri has erected a rock solid side, often unwilling to take risks but with a granitic mentality that has helped in their pursuit of leaders Inter.

In football ugly wins ultimately bring the same amount of points as the flamboyant ones, and Juve, who have scored 15 goals less than the Neroazzurri, are the primary example of that.

Since the defeat in matchday five Juve have never won a game by more than one goal margin in Serie A but, thanks also to Inter’s next game being postponed due to their involvement in the Italian Super Cup, the Bianconeri could find themselves a couple of points ahead of their rivals comes the big match on 4 February.

First tough they’ll have to deal with Sassuolo, one of Serie A’s most unpredictable teams. Capable of beating three of the league’s top teams (Inter, Juve and Fiorentina), but still only five points adrift from salvation.

The visitors have got good attacking numbers, in fact they’ve scored 26 times (more than Bologna and Lazio) and their two main players Berardi (9 goals) and Pinamonti (7 goals), have found the net more times than Juve’s three best scorers (Vlahovic, 7; Chiesa, 5 and Gatti (alongside Rabiot) with 3).

Yet the last two Sassuolo’s games ended 1-0, but both score lines are highly deceptive. In fact, nine of their last 12 encounters in all competitions have seen both teams on the scoresheet, as the Neroverdi drew a blank only five times in Serie A.

Stefano Dioni’s team are regarded as the ‘giant-killers’ of Italy (they’ve beaten Juventus three times since 2021), but their away defensive record is very poor (18 goals conceded, only Frosinone has done worse).

Although Juventus have won six games by 1-0 this season, this match is unlikely to be a low scoring one. Both teams to score, which has happened in 68% of Sassuolo’s matches, is my pick and odds are 10/11.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...