Watford vs Oxford United Prediction: Hornets to keep Vicarage Road buzz going

Watford and Oxford United suffered contrasting results on Tuesday, with the Hornets losing 1-0 at Swansea City and the U's beating Hull City by the same scoreline at the Kassam Stadium. The pair are in action against each other on Friday evening (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event) with five points separating the sides in the EFL Championship table; Tom Cleverley's charges are fifth on 22 points, while this week's visitors to Vicarage Road are 14th on 17 points.

Read on for my Watford vs Oxford United prediction, accompanied by team news and match odds.

Team News

Watford captain Moussa Sissoko will serve the third and final match of his ban on Friday, while Francisco Sierralta is suspended for one game after receiving his fifth yellow card of the campaign in Tuesday's 1-0 defeat.

Ryan Porteous is back from his own ban for an accumulation of bookings, however, and looks set to return to the Hornets' defence at Vicarage Road.

Tom Dele-Bashiru, Jeremy Ngakia and Angelo Ogbonna remain injured for Cleverley's side, who could bring Kwadwo Baah and Ryan Andrews back into the starting XI.

Football Odds

Oxford United's lengthy injury list includes Cameron Brannagan, Joe Bennett, Siriki Dembele, Matt Phillips, Przemyslaw Placheta and Kyle Edwards.

Head coach Des Buckingham could make a couple of changes to the starting XI that lined up in Tuesday's win over Hull City, with Ruben Rodrigues and Mark Harris both likely to return after being restricted to substitute outings in midweek.

Watford vs Oxford United Odds

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Watford are 5/6 to claim a fourth-straight success at Vicarage Road, giving the Hornets an implied win probability of 54.5%, while Oxford United are 16/5, or a 23.8% chance, to win on the road for the first time since promotion from League 1 in May.

The draw is priced at 11/4, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/11.

Vakoun Bayo, who scored four in Watford's 6-2 win at Sheffield Wednesday last Saturday, is 13/8 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, and 4/1 to open the scoring. Harris is first up for Oxford United in both markets, at 12/5 and 13/2, respectively.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Watford & Under 3.5 Goals @ 13/8

A near-faultless home record has powered Watford's strong start to the 2024/25 season. The Hornets are unbeaten at Vicarage Road this term, winning five of their six Championship matches there, only dropping points in a 1-1 draw with Coventry City on September 14.

Stoke City (3-0), Derby County, Sunderland, Middlesbrough (all 2-1) and Blackburn Rovers (1-0) have all fallen victim away to Cleverley's side in the league, while League 2 MK Dons (5-0) and fellow Championship side Plymouth Argyle (2-0) were dealt with in the Carabao Cup.

Unsurprisingly, no club has won more points at home than Watford (16) - level with Leeds United, Sunderland, Blackburn, Millwall and Sheffield United, while Oxford United (15) are only a point further behind.

The U's have been nowhere near as impressive on their travels, however, picking up just two points from six away trips - losing four times, drawing twice, and failing to win once - only Plymouth (one) have collected fewer points on their travels than Buckingham's boys.

United have lost in the league at Coventry (2-3), Blackburn, Bristol City (both 1-2) and Sunderland (0-2), while Coventry also beat them 1-0 at the Coventry Building Society Arena in the Carabao Cup second round on August 27.

Oxford have drawn at both Luton Town (2-2) and Portsmouth (1-1), but both of those sides currently reside in the Championship's bottom six - Watford are currently sixth.

Only one of United's four away defeats have seen over 3.5 goals, while all of Watford's five Championship wins at Vicarage Road have ended with three or fewer goals.

Therefore, a Watford win and under 3.5 total goals looks like the most obvious bet on Friday evening, and 13/8 is a price worth backing, in my opinion.

Player to Receive a Card - Ryan Porteous (WAT) @ 13/5

Porteous is free to return to the Watford squad after serving a suspension in midweek, and after the Hornets lost 1-0 in south Wales, I expect the Scotland international to be restored to the starting XI on Friday.

As you might expect from someone who was banned at the beginning of November for an accumulation of yellow cards, Porteous has been in the thick of the action for Cleverley's side this season.

He's always been known as an aggressive defender, going back to his days in Scotland with Hibernian. His overzealousness was also on show at the European Championships in Germany during the summer when he was red-carded in his country's opening group game against Germany.

No player was booked more times than Porteous (14 - level with Ipswich Town's Sam Morsy) in the Championship last season, and he's already been shown five yellows in just 10 appearances this term - four in six starts.

Oxford have a few attackers who are proficient in drawing fouls and winning free-kicks, notably Rodrigues, Tyler Goodhram and Harris, who have been fouled an average of 1.6, 1.1 and 0.9 times per game, respectively, in the Championship this season.

Offers

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