Wales vs Poland Prediction: Dragons to create more play-off final cheers in Cardiff

 | March 25 | 

5 mins read

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Qualification for Euro 2024 all comes down to one game at the Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday (KO, 19:45) for Wales and Poland, who secured big semi-final wins over Finland (4-1) and Estonia (5-1) respectively last week.

Ahead of this winner-takes-all clash, which is live on BBC iPlayer, we have detailed all the latest team news and match odds and offered our Wales vs Poland prediction.

Wales vs Poland Betting Tips

  • Wales to win and under 3.5 goals @ 15/8
  • Correct score - Wales 1-0 @ 11/2

Team News

There are no fresh injury concerns for Wales head coach Rob Page heading into this tie, but it remains to be seen whether he names an unchanged XI from the one that lined up against Finland.

Danny Ward will start in goal behind a three-man central defence of Chris Mepham, Joe Rodon and Ben Davies, with Neco Williams and Conor Roberts operating as wing-backs. Ethan Ampadu and Jordan James will offer further protection in midfield while David Brooks, Harry Wilson and Brennan Johnson look to offer pace and penetration in attack.

Kieffer Moore is an option to play at the point of attack while Dan James - who scored off the bench on Thursday - offers even more speed. Aaron Ramsey is an option later in the game having recently made his comeback from injury.

Poland will be without Matty Cash after the Aston Villa right-back lasted just 10 minutes following his introduction at half-time against Estonia before picking up a muscle injury.

Cash had replaced Lens wing-back Przemyslaw Frankowski, who scored the opening goal of the night on Thursday before picking up a problem of his own. Frankowski's issue isn't thought to be a serious one but the 28-year-old did miss training on Saturday and has to be considered a doubt at the very least.

Bartosz Bereszynski wasn't named in the squad last week but is an option to replace Frankowski if he doesn't pull through.

Match Odds

Wales are 7/5 - or a 41.7% chance - to win the tie inside 90 minutes on Tuesday, with Poland 11/5 - or 31.3% - to secure victory without the need for extra time. The draw, which would force another 30 minutes of action and potentially penalties, is available at 2/1.

Both teams to score (90 mins) is EVS and over 2.5 goals (90 mins) can be found at 11/8.

Wales to win and under 3.5 goals @ 15/8

With Gareth Bale now retired and Ramsey's best years behind him, Poland can certainly lay claim to having the biggest stars on their side.

Robert Lewandowski is currently leading the line for Barcelona and is already over the 20-goal mark for the season, Wojciech Szczesny is still starring for Juventus in Serie A and Piotr Zielinski is headed for reigning Italian champions Inter Milan in the summer after eight successful seasons with Napoli.

However, the success of those three at club level, and the integration of Jakub Kiwior and Nicola Zalewski at big clubs likes Arsenal and AS Roma, has not helped to elevate Poland on the international scene.

The Eagles finished behind both Albania and the Czech Republic in Group E of Euro 2024 qualifying, failing to beat Moldova home (1-1) and away (2-3). Last Thursday's big win over Estonia was a morale booster, but Wales will represent a much stiffer test of their credentials.

After a disappointing 2022 World Cup campaign in Qatar, where they finished bottom of a group containing England, the USA and Iran, Wales have lost just two out of their last 11 games, beating Croatia (2-1) at the Cardiff City Stadium in the process.

That form, plus home advantage, should see them over the line against a disjointed Poland side, who have seen eight of their last 10 matches feature two goals or fewer.

There were plenty of goals in Cardiff last Thursday but I expect events to calm down a tad on Tuesday given the quality Poland possess compared to Finland. Indeed, eight of Wales's 11 games since the World Cup have seen three goals or fewer.

Wales to beat Poland & under 3.5 goals at 15-8

Correct score - Wales 1-0 @ 11/2

The first suggestion throws up decent odds but is a bit more on the conservative side. This second betting tip takes things up a notch, backing the Dragons to keep out Lewandowski and co.

That might seem a big feat considering Poland have only failed to score in one game out of 11 - a 2-0 defeat to Albania in September - since their round of 16 exit at the last World Cup.

However, Poland aren't exactly prolific scorers, despite having one of Europe's most feared marksmen - Lewandowski - at the point of their attack. Prior to last week's win, the Eagles hadn't scored three in a game since November 2021, when they beat Andorra 4-1, with the likes of Moldova and the Czech Republic restricting them to one goal at home in Warsaw.

Wales meanwhile have picked up four clean sheets since the start of 2023, two of them at the Cardiff City Stadium, though it should be noted that South Korea represented the strongest opposition of them all.

The Dragons haven't shut out the opposition in their last four, but they only conceded one in each of them despite playing tough opponents like Turkey and Croatia.

With so much on the line, I expect to see a game more in line with their World Cup play-off final against Ukraine in June 2022, when they prevailed 1-0 thanks to a first-half goal from Bale.

Page's side managed to hang on to their lead for the rest of the match, with their five-man defence holding firm, and many of those players remain key figures for Wales.

Correct score 1-0 Wales in Wales vs Poland at 11-2

Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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