Venezuela vs Canada Prediction: La Vinotinto to taste success on Saturday

 | Friday 5th July 2024, 13:58pm

Friday 5th July 2024, 13:58pm

What's a polar bear - Canada in this instance - doing in Arlington, Texas? Well, Les Rouges are playing their first-ever Copa America quarter-final there on Saturday (02:00, Premier Sports 1), up against a strong-looking Venezuelan side.

Read on for my Venezuela vs Canada prediction and all the latest team news and match odds heading into this contest at the AT&T Stadium.

Venezuela vs Canada Betting Tips

  • Venezuela to win to nil @ 11/4
  • Bet Builder - Salomon Rondon anytime scorer, Salomon Rondon 1+ fouls, Alphonso Davies 1+ shots, each team over 19.5 booking points @ 7/1

Copa America Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Copa America page on (or app) for all the live betting prices on this competition.

Team News

Venezuela will be without the suspended Darwin Machis after the Real Valladolid forward picked up a second yellow card of the competition against Jamaica on Monday.

Only five players, including goalkeeper Rafael Romo, started all three group games, so it remains to be seen who head coach Fernando Batista picks on Saturday, but the spine of Yodan Osorio at the back, Yangel Herrera and Jose Martinez in midfield, and Salomon Rondon up front are likely to stay intact.

Nahuel Ferraresi and Miguel Navarro should return after being rested against Jamaica to avoid an accumulation of yellow cards that would see them banned for the quarters, while Yeferson Soltedo could return to the starting XI in place of Machis.

Canada's Tajon Buchanan broke a tibia in training earlier this week and looks set to miss out on Saturday. Still, the Inter Milan wing-back hasn't started since his country's opening-day defeat to Argentina and won't need to be replaced in the starting line-up.

Alphonso Davies, Stephan Eustaquio and Jonathan David are all expected to be key players for Les Rouges again.

Venezuela vs Canada Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Venezuela vs Canada page on (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

After collecting maximum points in Group B, beating Ecuador (2-1), Mexico (1-0) and Jamaica (3-0), Venezuela have been installed as 6/4 favorites to triumph inside regulation time on Saturday, giving them an implied win probability of 40%, while Canada are rated at 9/5, or a 35.7% chance.

A draw, which would send the tie straight to penalties, can be backed at 15/8, while both teams to score is priced at 10/11.

Venezuela to win to nil @ 11/4

Venezuela went a goal down to Ecuador in their Copa America opener but haven't conceded since that Jeremy Sarmiento strike on June 22, going on to beat La Tri 2-1 before shutting out Mexico and Jamaica in further victories.

La Vinotinto have now kept a clean sheet in four of their five games this year, while only Argentina (two) have conceded fewer goals than Venezuela (three) in the first six rounds of CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers.

Canada are pretty handy at the back, too, keeping a clean sheet in three of their last four games, just like Venezuela.

After holding France to a goalless draw in a pre-tournament friendly, Les Rouges kept Argentina out until the second half in a 2-0 defeat to start their Copa America campaign before beating Peru 1-0 and drawing 0-0 with Chile.

However, they've only scored one goal across their last five matches, also blanking in a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands on June 6.

There is quality in the Canadian ranks with Davies, Eustaquio and David all prominent names in European football, but I think Venezuela just have that extra bit of experience on the international scene, particularly in Copa America, and can edge to a victory inside 90 minutes on Saturday.

Venezuela to beat Canada to nil @ 11-4

Bet Builder - Salomon Rondon anytime scorer, Salomon Rondon 1+ fouls, Alphonso Davies 1+ shots, each team over 19.5 booking points @ 7/1

Former West Brom, Newcastle and Everton striker Rondon enjoyed a terrific group stage at this summer's Copa America, scoring against both Mexico and Jamaica, and the 34-year-old will be eyeing up Lautaro Martinez (four goals) at the top of the Golden Boot charts.

Rondon is Venezuela's all-time top scorer with 43 international strikes to his name, and he will fancy his chances of adding to his total up against a couple of relatively inexperienced centre-backs in Derek Cornelius and Moise Bombito.

He also loves a physical battle, though he has been on the receiving end more so far, being fouled an average of 1.3 times per game compared to the 0.3 fouls per game he is committing.

However, it's a huge game for Venezuela on Saturday, and I think we will see Rondon return to his usual numbers in terms of fouls made.

In this season's CONCACAF Champions Cup, Rondon averaged 2.1 fouls per game for Mexican side Pachuca, while his average across six matches in World Cup qualifiers is 2.5 per game.

The third leg of this bet builder requires Canadian star boy Davies to take at least one shot. Despite flitting between left-back and left-wing, Davies is averaging 1.3 shots per game in the USA having taken three against Argentina and one against Chile.

The 23-year-old is bound to be in the thick of the action again this weekend, and he may need to produce something special to help Canada at least send the tie to a penalty shoot-out.

I'm also backing several cards to be shown on Saturday, at least a couple to each team.

Canada were given two yellow cards against Argentina, one against Peru, and four against Chile, which gave them 20, 10 and 40 booking points respectively with Betfred.

Venezuela, meanwhile, were shown two yellows (20 booking points) against both Ecuador and Mexico before just one (10) against Jamaica.

In a high-stakes encounter, expect both countries to leave everything out there in their respective bids to reach the semi-finals.

Venezuela vs Canada bet builder @ 7-1


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