Uruguay vs Colombia Prediction: Valverde to steal in at Bank of America

 | Wednesday 10th July 2024, 12:14pm

Wednesday 10th July 2024, 12:14pm

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After Argentina's 2-0 victory over Canada in the first Copa America semi-final on Wednesday morning, all eyes turn to who will join the Albiceleste in Monday's final in Miami, with Uruguay and Colombia both in contention as they meet at the Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina on Thursday (01:00, Premier Sports 1).

Ahead of this titanic tussle between two of South America's finest, you can check out my Uruguay vs Colombia prediction below, and catch up on all the latest team news and match odds.

Uruguay vs Colombia Betting Tips

  • Both teams to score @ 11/10
  • Federico Valverde anytime scorer @ 6/1

Copa America Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Copa America page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this competition.

Team News

Uruguay head coach Marcelo Bielsa won't be able to call on right-back Nahitan Nandez against Colombia after the 28-year-old's red card against Brazil last time out, when they won on penalties after a goalless draw.

With Barcelona centre-back Ronald Araujo also ruled out through injury after being forced off in the first half on Sunday, Bielsa will be forced to make two changes to his backline.

Atletico Madrid's Jose Maria Gimenez looks certain to partner Mathias Olivera at the heart of La Celeste's defence after replacing Araujo against the Selecao, while Flamengo's Guillermo Varela appears the most likely candidate to deputise for Nandez.

Colombia, meanwhile, will welcome a player - Jefferson Lerma - back from suspension after the Crystal Palace midfielder was forced to sit out Saturday's 5-0 quarter-final thumping of Panama.

Lerma will replace Mateus Uribe to partner Richard Rios in midfield, with Los Cafeteros' only absentee expected to be the injured Jhon Lucumi.

Uruguay vs Colombia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Uruguay vs Colombia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

There's not much to split between these two teams, with Uruguay slight favourites at 13/8, giving them an implied win probability of 38.1% in regulation time compared to Colombia's 34.8% (15/8).

The draw, which would send the tie straight to penalties, can be backed at 13/8, while over 2.5 total goals is also priced at 13/8.

Uruguay's Darwin Nunez is favourite to open the scoring at 9/2 while his Liverpool teammate Luis Diaz is 3/1 to find the net anytime for Colombia.

Both teams to score @ 11/10

Colombia have scored 11 goals so far at this year's Copa America, netting at least once in all four games, and they've now struck in their last 12 games across all competitions, last being kept out by Ecuador in a goalless draw last October.

Uruguay were prolific scorers themselves in the group stage, hitting the back of the net nine times en route to collecting a maximum of nine points.

La Celeste were kept at bay by Brazil in the quarter-finals but it's difficult to see Bielsa's side, fronted by Nunez and ably supported by the likes of Federico Valverde and Maximiliano Araujo, being denied again.

Colombia have kept a couple of clean sheets at the tournament, shutting out Costa Rica and Panama, but they did concede - once - to both South American opposition they have faced - Paraguay and Brazil.

These sides last met in October 2023 when they played out a pulsating 2-2 draw in Barranquilla, with an attacking star on either side - James Rodriguez and Nunez - each netting.

Both teams to score - Yes in Uruguay vs Colombia at 11-10

Federico Valverde anytime scorer @ 6/1

Valverde has started all four of Uruguay's games at this summer's Copa America, captaining his country to three wins in the group stage and a penalty shoot-out success over Brazil in the quarter-finals.

The 25-year-old has only scored once so far, La Celeste's fourth in a 5-0 victory over Bolivia, but has impressed with his all-action displays in midfield and is expected to be a key presence again on Thursday.

Uruguay scored eight goals across their first two matches of the tournament but have managed just one since, narrowly beating the USA 1-0 before being held to a goalless draw in regulation time by Brazil.

Colombia have kept two clean sheets themselves and are unlikely to offer the sort of space afforded to the likes of Nunez and Araujo by Panama and Bolivia, with the forwards netting a goal in each of those games but failing to add to their totals against the USA or Brazil.

As such, Uruguay may be reliant on goals from midfield, and Valverde can certainly bring that.

Since the start of the 2022/23 season, the Real Madrid star has scored six goals from outside the penalty area, and hasn't been shy in trying his luck from distance at Copa America, shooting nine times from outside the 18-yard box.

Valverde is averaging three shots per game and will surely be heavily involved in the attacking phase for Bielsa's side on Thursday.

He showed his big-game credentials in April as he struck a sweet volley to equalise in the latter stages of a Champions League quarter-final tie with Manchester City at the Bernabeu, and I'm backing him to come up trumps again versus Colombia, particularly at such an enticing price.

Federico Valverede anytime scorer in Uruguay vs Colombia at 6-1


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