Udinese vs AC Milan Prediction: Lucca to land us another win

Four defeats from their last seven Serie A games (W2, D1, L4) has derailed AC Milan's European push, with I Rossoneri now ninth, seven points behind sixth-place Lazio and a further two adrift of Bologna in fourth.

On Friday (19:45), Sergio Conceicao's side head to Bluenergy Stadium in Udine, where Udinese (11th), winless in their last four matches, lie in wait. Below are my Udinese vs AC Milan predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Alexis Sanchez (muscle), Jordan Zemura (calf), Florian Thauvin (foot), Isaak Toure (knee), Razvan Sava (finger) and Keinan Davis (unspecified) are all set to sit out Friday's fixture due to injury.

With Thauvin, Sanchez and Davis all unavailable, it will be down to Lorenzo Lucca, who hasn't scored since February 21, to lead the line again, supported by Iker Bravo.

Football Odds

Martin Payero, Sandi Lovric and Thomas Kristensen are among those hoping to push their way into Kosta Runjaic's starting XI.

Milan head coach Sergio Conceciao has confirmed that Kyle Walker (elbow) and Santiago Gimenez (ribs) are out of Friday's trip to Udine. He said: "Walker got injured during training. Santi Gimenez hasn't recovered and won't feature. [Alessandro] Florenzi has a great spirit, he helps us a lot but he is being managed and I hope he gets back to full fitness soon."

Emerson Royal (calf) and Ruben Loftus-Cheek (abdominal) are also set to miss out for the visitors, who could hand starts to Strahinja Pavlovic, Warren Bondo and Luka Jovic, who scored Milan's equaliser in their 2-2 draw with Fiorentina last Saturday.

Udinese vs AC Milan Odds

Udinese have won three of their last four matches at Bluenergy Stadium but have been made 11/4 underdogs on Friday, implying a 26.7% chance of success, while Milan are 19/20, or a 51.3% chance, to win at the venue for the second season running.

There hasn't been a draw between these two teams since February 2022, with Milan winning three of the five contests since, but you can back a stalemate this week at 13/5.

Both teams to score is available at 8/11 and over 2.5 total goals at 4/5; Milan forwards Tammy Abraham and Christian Pulisic (both 2/1) head the anytime goalscorer market, with Lucca (11/5) first up for the hosts.

Double Chance & BTTS - Udinese or Draw & Yes @ 9/5

Both sides head into Friday's fixture in rotten recent form, with the hosts losing their last three games in Serie A and the visitors suffering four defeats in their last seven.

Backing both teams to score looks the most obvious shout here as it's been a winning selection in Milan's last nine matches - seven of which have been in Serie A - and I Rossoneri are fourth in the league BTTS table with 61% (19) of their 31 contests seeing at least a goal on either side.

Udinese (55%), meanwhile, are joint-seventh in the BTTS table and haven't kept a clean sheet in their last four league games.

There was only one goal scored earlier in the season as Milan triumphed 1-0 courtesy of a 13th-minute strike from Samuel Chukwueze, but the hosts were reduced to 10 men 16 minutes later following Tijjani Reijnders' red card, and his dismissal had a big effect on the game's course.

In 2023/24, however, there were five goals at Bluenergy Stadium - two for Udinese and three for Milan - and while I don't necessarily anticipate as many as five on Friday, I do think both sides can get on the scoresheet.

However, I'm backing against an away win as Conceicao's charges have proven too unreliable, particularly on their travels.

Milan have lost four of their last five away matches - three in four in Serie A - and have only managed to beat relegation-threatened Lecce in that run. In that victory, they had to come from two goals down, too.

Udinese aren't in fantastic form themselves but their their home record makes for better reading. I Bianconeri won three straight matches in Udine before falling to defeat against Verona on March 15, and they will be desperate to put things right at home after nearly a month away.

The double chance result on Udinese and both teams to score looks the best bet here at 9/5.

Player to Receive a Card - Lorenzo Lucca (UDI) @ 12/5

This selection was an 11/5 winner for me in last week's Genoa-Udinese preview. Lucca made three fouls in that game and was booked for one of those offences in the 56th minute.

His fouls-per-game average is now up to 2.5 and his yellow card count up to nine.

On Friday, the 24-year-old comes up against Milan, who he was booked in both games against last year.

Lucca committed one foul in Udinese's defeat to Milan last October and was booked for dissent in the 82nd minute, and in Udine last January (2024), he was cautioned for the one foul he made.

After last week's success, I'm looking to repeat the feat on Friday, at slightly more generous odds of 12/5, likely because Udinese are at home this week.

The Italy international is a physical forward, and last week's yellow shouldn't have put him off making more robust challenges against Milan.

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