Genoa vs Udinese Prediction: Yellow for Lucca at the Luigi Ferraris

There's a mid-table battle in Serie A on Friday evening (19:45) as Genoa (12th) host Udinese (10th) at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Five points separate the sides in the table, so a defeat for Il Grifone would be a killer blow to their top-10 hopes.

Below are my Genoa vs Udinese predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Mario Balotelli (hand), Junior Messias (muscle), Maxwel Cornet, Mattia Bani (both thigh), Honest Ahanor (knee) and Hugo Cuenca (unspecified) all missed last Saturday's 1-0 defeat to Juventus through injury, and all six are expected to sit out the visit of Udinese on Friday.

Cornet and Junior Messias have both resumed partial training so have the best chances to return, but they remain major doubts.

However, Aaron Martin is free to return at left-back after suspension ruled him out of last weekend's trip to Turin.

Football Odds

Morten Thorsby made his return from a five-game injury lay-off against the Old Lady, and the Norwegian midfielder will be looking to make a first start since February 8.

Genoa head coach Patrick Vieira may also consider handing a start to Ukraine international Ruslan Malinovsky, who assisted both of Fabio Miretti's goals in his side's 2-1 win over Lecce before the international break.

Udinese will be without Razvan Sava (finger), Alexis Sanchez (muscle), Jordan Zemura (calf) and Isaak Toure (knee) for their trip to the Luigi Ferraris, while Florian Thauvin, who has missed their last two games - a 1-0 home defeat to Hellas Verona and last Sunday's 2-1 loss at Inter - is a doubt with a foot injury,

Slovenian midfielder Sandi Lovric was substituted at half-time against I Nerazzurri, and it remains to be seen whether he will keep his starting spot, or if Kosta Runjaic will make a change in the engine room.

Martin Payero could come back into I Bianconeri's line-up having been dropped down to the bench and restricted to a 20-minute outing at San Siro.

Genoa vs Udinese Odds

Vieira has lost just one of his eight home games in charge of Genoa, who are unbeaten in all five played at the Luigi Ferraris this calendar year. Il Grifone have won four of those five and are 6/4 favourites on Friday, implying a win probability of 40%, while Udinese are 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to claim victory for the first time in over a month. Runjaic's side are winless in their last three games, drawing the first and losing the last two.

The draw is priced at 2/1, both teams to score at 11/10, and over 2.5 total goals at 6/4.

Genoa's leading goalscorer in Serie A this season, eight-goal marksman Andrea Pinamonti, heads the anytime market at 2/1, followed by Udinese's 10-goal forward Lorenzo Lucca (5/2), who hasn't got on the scoresheet in any of his last six matches for club and country (Italy).

Player to Receive a Card - Lorenzo Lucca (UDI) @ 11/5

I'm expecting another physical battle between Genoa defender Johan Vasquez and Udinese's main man Lucca, who have received seven and eight yellows, respectively, in this season's Serie A.

Lucca is averaging 2.4 fouls per 90 and committed three in Udinese's 2-1 defeat at San Siro last weekend, although he did manage to evade a card.

The Italy international didn't give away a free-kick in December's reverse fixture in Udine, but he only lasted until half-time of that 2-0 defeat before being substituted for Thomas Kristensen.

In last season's head-to-head at the Luigi Ferraris, though, he made four fouls, a match in which Vasquez was fouled three times. Earlier in the 2023/24 campaign, in Udine, the Mexico international was fouled twice, while Lucca conceded one free-kick.

This season, Vasquez is fouled, on average, 0.8 times per 90 in Serie A, so he wins a solid amount of free-kicks as a defender. His centre-back partner, Koni De Winter, is averaging 0.6 fouls won per 90, and so both look primed to come under attack from Lucca on Friday.

The 6ft 7in attacker hasn't been booked in his last six appearances for club and country, so it feels like he may be due a yellow - or red - soon.

Both Teams To Score - Yes @ 11/10

Only three clubs have seen BTTS - Yes land in a lower percentage of their Serie A games this season than Genoa (47%), but that figure does rise slightly to 53% at home.

Il Grifone failed to fire last week, losing 1-0 to Juventus, but they had scored in the previous three matches, drawing the first two 1-1 before beating Lecce 2-1. Eight of their last 14 games have seen both teams score, including their previous two at the Luigi Ferraris.

Udinese, meanwhile, are joint-fifth in the BTTS table, with 57% of their contests seeing both teams find the net, rising to 73% away from home.

I Bianconeri scored at the home of the reigning champions last week, and BTTS - Yes has been a winner in four of their last five away trips.

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