Torino vs Napoli Prediction: New Year, New Napoli?

Two teams on the outside of the European places looking in take on one another on Sunday afternoon on TNT Sports.

Napoli travel to Turin to take on Torino and our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella shares his thoughts as he previews the match...

At the end of last season, Napoli and Torino were separated by 37 points: as the Azzurri celebrated their third Scudetto, the Granata languished in mid-table

Fast-forward six months and the hosts are just four points behind the champions.

But whereas Torino is only one point better off compared to the last campaign, Napoli’s tumultuous season is quickly turning into a disaster.

Moreover, they’ll be without Victor Osimhen for a month, as the 2022/2023 Serie A top goalscorer will feature for Nigeria in the AFCON.

Last week against Monza it was another pallid display from Napoli who were set up, for the first time, with a 3-5-2 formation, a system that Walter Mazzarri (a former Torino manager) has often adopted during his career.

However the Azzurri, without Osimhen suspended, struggled, once again, to convert their territorial domination (they had 59% possession and 25 shots; in fact Napoli continue to be top in Italy for ball retention), into meaningful chances.

For the fifth time in the last seven Serie A games Napoli did not score and were kept alive by Alex Meret who saved Matteo Pessina’s penalty in the second half.

Napoli’s numbers are merciless: 28 points, 19 less in the table compared to a year ago.

Only seven clean sheets and nine defeat in all competitions, including the shocking elimination by Frosinone in Coppa Italia.

And what’s worse a growing feeling that last year’s exciting team is gone forever.

President Aurelio De Laurentis has promised new signings this month, but it could be too late even to challenge for a top-four finish.

Team News:

Napoli will be without two key African players for at least a month, as Victor Osimhen and Andre Zambo-Anguissa both travel to AFCON. But the problems for Mazzarri are not over, in fact, goalkeeper Meret picked up a serious muscular injury that will keep him out at least until February. On the visitors’ camp defenders Matias Oliveira and Natan are also not available.

Ivan Juric does not have any major injuries to deal with, apart from defender Peer Schuurs who’ll be out for the rest of the season.

Only one change is expected to the formation that lost 1-0 against Fiorentina: last year’s top goalscorer Toni Sanabria should reclaim his place in the starting XI at the expenses of Pietro Pellegri.

Torino vs Napoli Odds:

Despite their bad moment Napoli are still favourite to win on Sunday, perhaps because they’re unbeaten in the last 11 games against Torino having won seven of them.

In the past five matches Torino have only scored once against the Partenopei and last season they lost 4-0 at home and 3-1 in Napoli. A win for the visitors pays 7/5.

The odds for a home win, 2/1, are really good, considering that Torino have only lost two (both against Inter) of their last 12 home Serie A matches.

This season, Napoli are much stronger away from home than at the Maradona (17 points away, against 11 in front of the home crowd), and have only drawn two away games so far.

Torino, on the other hand, have shared the points at home 11 times since 2022/2023. The odds for a draw are 9/4.

Both teams to score Yes @ 4/5

The biggest issue for Torino is scoring goals. Worryingly for Ivan Juric the addition of Duvan Zapata (only four goals so far) in the summer does not seem to have solved the problem.

The Granata finished last season with Serie A’s 13th attack and currently have the second worse tally with only 15 goals scored. They’re struggling both at home (nine goals) and away, as only five of their games have seen more than 2.5 goals scored.

The good news for them is that they don’t tend to concede many chances, and they’re very organised out of possession.

On the other hand, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet against Napoli in 17 of their last 20 meetings in Serie A.

Over 9.5 corners @ 11/10

Napoli are the team that takes more corners in Italy’s top division: 114 so far, 6.33 on average each game.

Their numbers are better when they play at the Maradona, but they’re also in the top four for corners taken (average 5.11) away from home.

Despite their lack of goals, Torino’s attacking stats, especially at home, are also very good as they average 6.44 corners x game, that’s the fourth-best overall tally in Serie A.

Given Napoli’s troubles and Torino’s pugnacious, but also reactive, it’s unlikely this will be a game with many goals, especially at the beginning.

Six out of nine Torino home matches this season have been scoreless at half-time.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...