Sheff Wed vs Stoke Prediction: Musaba amongst the drama again

If you think the Championship relegation battle has been intense to this point, get ready for an escalation of great magnitude on Saturday as Sheffield Wednesday host Stoke City at Hillsborough in a match which could barely be more important (15:00 BST).

Wednesday’s late comeback from 2-0 down to earn a point from Norwich City on Tuesday preceded Stoke’s complete submission at Swansea City the follow night which leaves Steven Schumacher’s side still needing points to be sure of safety. Our Sheff Wed vs Stoke predictions come with the caveat that this scrap has so far been one of the most unpredictable second-tier storylines in years.

Team news

Wednesday boss Danny Rohl has refused to rule out returns for Marvin Johnson, Ian Poveda, Ike Ugbo and Di’Shon Bernard, all of whom missed the midweek draw with Norwich. “It’s looks better, I think some players could be coming back,” he said of the collective injury status in his pre-match press conference. “But who is it? Let’s have a look [after training].”

Johnson has missed the last two with a slight knock, while Poveda limped out of last Saturday’s win at QPR with a recurrence of hamstring trouble first suffered in mid-March. Bernard has sat out four games since pulling up in the warm-up before the 1-1 Good Friday draw with Swansea, and Ugbo's absence against Norwich was the first time he’s missed out since arriving in the January window.

Steven Schumacher might make changes after a limp showing in a feisty encounter in south Wales on Wednesday. He’ll definitely still be without Ryan Mmaee, Ben Pearson and Lynden Gooch, all of whom have hamstring injuries. And while only Mmaee of the three has been ruled out for the rest of the campaign, Pearson and Gooch could also miss the majority of what remains of Stoke’s season.

Schumacher claimed they let themselves down in the little battles against Swansea, which doesn’t bode well, and was quick to demand a “huge performance” against Wednesday. With no worsening of the injury list and a need for significant improvement, the quick turnaround in fixtures will be good news for the Stoke boss.

Match odds

Wednesday are 13/8 favourites for the win at Hillsborough, with 9/5 being offered on a Potters win. The draw is a healthy 21/10, and it’s a 4/5 shot for both teams to score.

Sheff Wed to win to nil @ 10/3

It’s amazing it has come to this really. Wednesday were 12 points adrift of the dotted line at the beginning of December, having registered just one win and seven points in their opening 18 matches. Since then they have won 11 of 24 in a run of form which would have them eighth in the table if the season had begun right then.

Over that same period, Stoke have won only six matches, averaged under a goal a game and generally done a mighty fine job of not doing quite enough to distance themselves from the relegation drama. Their away form has actually been much better than their record at the bet365 Stadium, but their submissive performance at the Liberty last time out said much about where their confidence is.

With attackers Mmaee, Tyrese Campbell, Niall Ennis, Sead Haksabanovic, Nathan Lowe, Million Manhoef and Wesley having combined for just eight goals in 113 appearances in the Championship this season, it doesn’t bode particularly well as they go in search of goals at Hillsborough on Saturday. I can see Wednesday doing just enough to keep Stoke at bay, with six of the Owls’ last seven wins having been built on clean sheets.

Anthony Musaba to score last @ 17/2

This bet kind of supposes that Wednesday might have the lead late on. Musaba hasn’t started nearly as regularly of late, with his omission from the starting XI last Saturday one of five changes after the no-show at Middlesbrough on Easter Monday.

But he netted the late clincher at Loftus Road, and his post-90-minute winners in consecutive weeks against Stoke and Rangers in December helped to drag the Owls out of that 12-point hole they were in running up to the Christmas period. All of which is to say that the Dutch winger tends to score in streaks.

He might only have seven goals this term, but that’s enough to top Wednesday’s scoring charts, and when he’s given space in behind he can be extremely dangerous. If Stoke are left stretched, Musaba could well net, with four of his last five strikes being the final goal in their respective matches. At 17/2, the implied probability of 10.5% feels on the low side.

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