Spain vs Belgium Prediction: Back the Spanish to progress

Spain squeaked their way past Portugal in the Round of 16, whilst Belgium gave the USA a master class in desire as they swarmed over the last host-nation standing. This all European-clash will have English representation as Michael Oliver and his team will be officiating.

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon got the call to preview this one as he takes us through the Team News, Odds and his two Best Bets for the 8PM kick-off this evening on BBC 1.

Los Angeles hosts the second quarter-final at the 2026 World Cup. It's an all-European affair after Spain saw off Portugal, and Belgium sent the USA packing in the round of 16. 

Meetings between these two nations have been surprisingly infrequent in recent years. Since a 5-0 Spanish victory in qualifying for the 2010 World Cup, the sides have met only once. That was a friendly match a decade ago, meaning Belgium's golden generation has not crossed paths with Spain on a competitive stage. 

Rudi Garcia's team are the clear underdogs against a Spanish outfit that is yet to concede at this tournament. Unai Simón has set a new World Cup record, having gone 609 minutes without conceding since the group stage in 2022. 

Spain have allowed just 1.49 xG across five matches so far. While they mostly came up against defensively-minded opponents in the group stage, shutting out Portugal in the round of 16 suggests this is a dependable backline. The return to form of Rodri since the start of the knockout stage has also helped. 

The all-Iberian tie didn't really live up to the hype. Not for the first time at this World Cup, Spain were not at their best in attack, but they were still the superior team. Luis de la Fuente's men had to wait until the 91st minute to grab the only goal of the contest, with substitutes Ferran Torres and Mikel Merino combining. 

With only one goal and no assists in five appearances, Lamine Yamal has not been at his best following a recent hamstring injury. Pedri has also struggled to exert his influence at times, but this Spanish squad boasts real depth. With other players consistently stepping up, they'll firmly expect to advance into the last four. 

While Spain's progress has been steady and measured, Belgium have already been on something of a rollercoaster ride. Opening draws against Egypt and Iran left them at risk of elimination heading into their final group game, but they put five goals past New Zealand to top Group G. 

The Red Devils were then firmly on course to exit the competition in the first knockout round. Having been outplayed by Senegal, they were trailing 2-0 heading into the final five minutes. 

Garcia had boldly opted to take both Kevin De Bruyne and Jérémy Doku off, but his gamble ultimately paid off, with two late goals forcing extra time. Youri Tielemans went on to convert a 125th-minute penalty to complete the turnaround and set up a round-of-16 clash with the USA. 

That match was overshadowed by the storm surrounding FIFA's controversial decision to allow US striker Folarin Balogun to play, despite his red card in the previous round. It clearly fired up Belgium, who produced their best performance of the competition to knock the co-hosts out with a 4-1 victory. 

Team News: 

Spain are in good shape on the fitness front heading into this match. De la Fuente should have a full squad to pick from, and he could name the same lineup for the third game in a row. 

Should he opt for changes, round-of-16 match winner Merino could compete for a starting role. Marcos Llorente is also an alternative option to Pedro Porro at right-back. 

Belgium's round-of-16 win was soured by a serious injury for Amadou Onana. The midfielder has ruptured his ACL and is set for a long spell on the sidelines. 

Garcia must therefore decide how to set up his midfield in this game. De Bruyne and Hans Vanaken are both options to come in, although the more defensively-minded Axel Witsel could be a better fit. Doku and Romelu Lukaku may be used as impact subs once more. 

*You can check out all of the live World Cup Odds across all of our markets over on betfred.com

FT

Spain

2 - 1

Belgium

Match Odds: 

Spain are priced at 8/13 to win the game in regulation time. You can back the Draw at 3/1, while Belgium are priced at 9/2. 

If you fancy La Roja to secure easy passage into the final four, you can back Spain -1.00 Handicap at 13/8. They are also priced at 8/5 to win to nil for the fifth time in six outings at this World Cup. 

Alternatively, Draw or Belgium is on offer at 6/5 in the Double Chance market. You can back the Red Devils to score over 1.5 goals at 3/1, while Both teams to score is priced at 8/11. 

Mikel Oyarzabal is the 20/21 favourite in the Player to Score (Sub Switch) market. Alternative options include Yamal at 11/8 and Charles De Ketelaere, who bagged a brace against the USA, at 17/5. 

You can also take advantage of a Price Boost and back Spain to win, Spain most corners and Spain most shots on target at enhanced odds of 15/8. 

*You can bet on this match and get all of the live Spain vs Belgium Odds over on betfred.com...

Bet 1 - Spain to win & Over 1.5 goals @ 10/11 

Belgium lack the defensive discipline to frustrate Spain in the way that Portugal managed for long periods in the previous round. Despite a favourable set of fixtures, Garcia's side have only kept one clean sheet in five outings at this competition. 

Senegal showed just how vulnerable they can be at the back, with the West Africans registering 19 shots and 3.58 xG across 120 minutes in their round-of-32 tie. 

While Yamal's slow start to the competition is a concern, the teenager still draws defenders to him and that helps create space for the other attacking players in the Spanish side. 

Having already ended a 16-year wait for a World Cup knockout victory this summer, Spain should be capable of kicking on. I'm backing them to win a game featuring at least two goals at odds of 10/11. 

Bet 2 - Leandro Trossard 1+ shots on target (Sub Switch) & Dani Olmo 2+ shots (Sub Switch) @ 8/5 

While some of their big names have disappointed, Leandro Trossard has really stepped up for Belgium this summer. He is already on two goals and two assists at this tournament, while he's averaging 3.4 shots per game. 

It's a similar story for Spain to some extent. Dani Olmo is not one of the outright stars in their squad, but he played a key role at Euro 2024. De la Fuente's side have also produced all of their best performances at this World Cup when Olmo has played. The attacking midfielder has had at least two shots in the three games he has started. 

Given that, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Leandro Trossard 1+ shots on target (Sub Switch) and Dani Olmo 2+ shots (Sub Switch) at 8/5.