Over 2.5 Goals Tips: A Saturday 12/1 Accumulator

After a break last week for some annual leave, we are back with our Saturday Over 2.5 Goals column having once again missed out on a winner last time out.

Surprisingly, it was old faithful Radcliffe that let us down along with Wrexham, so we went four of six. It is the same amount of matches this weekend with a price of just over 12/1...

Leg 1 - Ipswich Town vs Birmingham City @ 8/13

Oh dear. This game has got the trifecta having already appeared in the Saturday Accumulator and BTTS columns. That is never a good sign but as I’ve noted several times already this season, matches at Portman Road are a great place for those who want to bet on Over 2.5 markets.

No fewer than 81% of the games at the Suffolk venue have resulted in three or more goals so far this campaign. The Tractor Boys are actually rolling a six-game streak for this statistic both home and away. When you consider that even Rotherham bagged three against Kieran McKenna’s side last week, it is pretty clear that defensively, they aren’t great.

I think one of the best single bets at Evens or longer this weekend is Ipswich Town to win this game and Over 2.5 Goals to come in as well. That is a 23/20 double but strictly for this column, we are just focusing on the latter of those two bets.

Leg 2 - Southampton vs Millwall @ 8/13

Seeing the Saints lose at home against Hull City on Tuesday night must have busted a fair few accumulators midweek. For us though in the Over 2.5 Goals column, that 1-2 scoreline would have still been credited a winner.

It is now eight-straight matches at St. Mary’s where three or more goals have been scored. Since that rough start to the campaign, Russell Martin has really got things rolling on the northern end of the M27. They are at 75% for home games where this bet has come in and that number has only been heading up in recent weeks.

I like Southampton to get back to winning ways and to do so with gusto.

Leg 3 - Stockport County vs Swindon Town @ 8/13

82% of games Swindon Town have played away from the County Ground so far in the 23/24 League 2 season have resulted in this bet being a winner. They are also on a seven-game streak on their travels for this one coming up trumps.

On Saturday, they face the top scorers in the division. Stockport have scored 66 goals in 33 matches and this has all the hallmarks of a pretty comprehensive home win. The Hatters may be enduring a bit of a wobble at the moment, having only taken a point from the past nine on offer, but they still sit top and Swindon are all the way down in 18th.

It should also be noted that the Robins have scored at least once in every game on the road since early December. Over 2.5 feels a strong play in this one from Greater Manchester.

Leg 4 - Chesham United vs Poole Town @ 1/2

This Southern South Division clash is a match-up of teams with polar opposite form in recent matches. Top of the table Chesham have won six-straight whilst mid-table Poole Town have lost six on the bounce.

The visitors to the Meadow this weekend have been one of the best for Over 2.5 this season in the division, with their matches averaging 3.81 goals-per-game. When you throw in the fact that the home side here are the top scorers in the league, you can start to form a pretty good idea of why this game has been selected.

A comprehensive home win feels on the cards, with the only non-league team with three strips likely to collect the three points with ease and scoring a few along the way.

Leg 5 - Hanwell Town vs Swindon Supermarine @ 1/2

Now we get into the ‘if you read this column every week, you know exactly what is coming next,’ portion of the proceedings.

As I’ve noted repeatedly in recent pieces, Swindon Supermarine have been involved in matches that finish with three or more goals on every Saturday they’ve played since a 0-0 draw with Sholing back on November 11. They’ve conceded 76 times in just 32 games. When looking at their goals-per-game ratio, they are sitting at a whopping 4.12 through 31 league matches. That is extremely high.

Hanwell Town look paltry in comparison but their 3.66 number is still extremely strong. This is not the week to jump off the Swindon Supermarine Over 2.5 Goals bandwagon.

Leg 6 - Ilkeston FC vs Radcliffe Football Club @ 4/9

The other team that appears pretty much every week without fail are Northern Premier League leaders Radcliffe. Yet, the last time I wrote this column a fortnight ago, they actually failed me with a 1-1 draw at Worksop. That feels like a blip however, as in the two games since, we’ve seen 2-2 and 3-2 scorelines.

The Greater Manchester based club are one of the best scorers in the whole of the football pyramid, with a whopping eighty goals to their name from just 30 league matches. That means they are averaging over 2.5 goals-per-game just themselves, not even taking into account any that they let in at the other end. It is preposterous but also is why they are regulars for us in this column.

Ilkeston Town have both scored and conceded 49 times through 30 games, so they are also very much on board the Over 2.5 train. No reason to shy away from Radcliffe’s match again this week.

You can check out all of our Football Accumulator Tips on our Acca hub page...