Our Saturday Acca column last week did not get remotely close - that shock Salford win at Crewe really took it to us.
This week we have just three games but at a big price of 14/1 as we back a trio of home wins for relegation-threatened sides...
Leg 1 - Burnley vs Fulham - Home Win @ 2/1
Life has not been easy for Vincent Kompany’s side since winning promotion back to the Premier League last summer and the gap to safety is starting to widen to an alarming degree. Saturday’s home match against Fulham feels like a ‘must-win’ type of game and I think they find a way to get it done.
Marco Silva’s side have seen their season come to a standstill, having been dumped out of both cup competitions in the space of 72 hours. They gave Liverpool everything they could muster in the Carabao Cup semi-final but the display against Newcastle was lacklustre and despite Eddie Howe’s side never really getting out of second-gear, you could only see the one winner.
A midweek home draw against Everton certainly isn’t something to get the good feelings back at the Cottage. The problem continues to be a lack of goals and despite scoring ten times in 180 minutes of football in those two freak 5-0 victories in December, Fulham have only scored 18 in the other 20 league matches they’ve played.
Burnley were never expected to get anything from their short-midweek trip to the Etihad and a 3-1 defeat was certainly not a surprising scoreline. That result hasn't swayed me one jot.
This just feels like a massive game for the home side and remember, they did go to West London in the reverse fixture before Christmas and took home all three points. I think the price on them to do the double feels big.
Leg 2 - Blackburn Rovers vs QPR - Home Win @ Evens
Any time you see the chance to back a team to beat QPR at home at Even-money on the coupon, your instinct is immediately to click on it. That is because Marti Cifuentes’ side have struggled all-season and despite a small uptick in performances since the departure of Gareth Ainsworth, a relegation-battle is still very much on the cards.
As for Blackburn, you honestly rarely know what you are going to get from Jon Dahl Tomasson’s men. Last season, they were agonisingly close to winning promotion but this time around, they have been extremely hit or miss.
A 4-1 win against Wrexham in the FA Cup on Monday night would certainly have ramped up the confidence levels. The league form though has been pretty abject, as you have to go back to December 12 to find a game when Rovers took home all three points.
Still, I’m happy to back them at Evens because I think it is just a very good price. QPR last won away from London back on the first day of December, when they took the spoils at Deepdale. They have only scored the once since that day away from home, albeit they’ve had a slew of home matches in that span.
This pick is more about value than the form book. QPR are not a very good side and Blackburn are just about better. If both sides play up to their full potential, this should be a home win.
Leg 3 - Huddersfield Town vs Sheffield Wednesday - Home Win @ 6/4
I always love backing a team at home after a managerial departure and here we are again. This season hasn’t actually been as profitable as usual for the new-manager bounce but on Saturday, Huddersfield have a great opportunity to get back on track following the short and ultimately disappointing stay of former manager Darren Moore.
We have a Terriers fan (and also a Wednesday fan) on staff here at Betfred Insights and the former was extremely happy to see the Moore-era come to an end. Writing for us about his departure earlier in the week, he said, ‘But one thing will unite Town fans behind the new guy no matter what - It's not Darren Moore. Seemed like a lovely guy, but simply not up to the job.’
Jon Worthington will step up from his academy duties to oversee the first-team in the interim. His first match will be at home to one of the few sides below Huddersfield in the league table. This is a massive game and with the crowd expected to be a bit more lively having seen the back of a manager that they felt wasn’t up to the task, the game has suddenly become an awful lot trickier for the visitors.
Neither side are in great form, although Wednesday did get two nice wins at the turn of the year. They beat a poor Preston side before beating ten-man Hull. Since then though, it has been back-to-back defeats in the league, including a 4-0 shellacking at Southampton. Huddersfield have drawn three-straight.
Throw the form book out of the window though. The caretaker manager will galvanise his side and see them take home all the points. It is a tale we’ve all seen many a time and the odds for the home win feel far too big to pass on.
The 14/1 price for the treble comes it at implied odds of just 6.7% but I feel like all three sides have a good chance of coming away with the points. This feels like a good value Saturday acca...
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