Saturday Football Accumulator Tips: 18/1 fivefold for Saturday afternoon

Our Saturday Football Accumulator Tips column last week looked so good after 45 minutes. That Forest Green Rovers second-half display though took us down as once more, EFL League Two provides a bizarre result to torpedo an acca.

Still, one of our selections comes from that division this week. Surely Wrexham's outstanding home form can beat the woeful returns of Tranmere Rovers on the road, or will that game be another to throw into the Bermuda Triangle that is the fourth tier of English Football? The fivefold comes in at just shy of 19/1 as of the time of writing...

Leg 1 - Barnsley vs Cheltenham Town - Home win @ 8/11

We open out our Saturday Accumulator this week with three consecutive legs all around the same price, all of which are from the same division.

First of all, it is a trip to Oakwell where promotion-chasing Barnsley welcome in relegation-threatened Cheltenham Town. That sentence alone should put this game on the radar of most people.

The visitors are 23rd of 24 when it comes to their away form in EFL League One and their three victories have all come against sides around them at the foot of the table, with Cambridge United, Carlisle United and Port Vale all having suffered defeat in their own patch at the hands of Darrell Clarke’s men.

Barnsley are a much better outfit than any of those sides and automatic-promotion is still a very realistic target for the Tykes.

The hosts were stunned last Saturday when the red-hot Lincoln City rolled into town and gave them an old-fashioned shellacking (more on them to come soon) and that result is probably why the odds are much closer to Evens than I really would have expected. If you take that match out as an anomaly, then the recent form of both sides suggest this is a strong candidate for one of the bankers of the coupon.

Leg 2 - Lincoln City vs Bristol Rovers  - Home win @ 7/10

If you are looking for a team who are playing their best football of the season in any of the professional divisions in England, then may I introduce you to Lincoln City.

In the past week, they’ve beaten Barnsley on the road 1-5 and followed that up by putting six past a pretty ordinary Cambridge United side on Tuesday night. Across those two matches, they’ve had 35 total shots on goal, with 19 of them on target, with of course 11 of them finding the back of the net.

They are quite sensational numbers and a late surge into the play-off places looks very much on the cards for former Leeds U21 manager Michael Skubala, who took over the club late last year.

Bristol Rovers have spent most of their campaign just hovering between those play-off places and a comfortable but unspectacular mid-table finish. Recent form though suggests this one is only going one way.

Leg 3 - Reading vs Cambridge United - Home win @ 8/11

Cambridge make the relatively short journey to Reading on Saturday with that 6-0 defeat at Lincoln still very much ringing in their ears. In their past three games on the road, they’ve conceded nine, scored zilch and taken home no points.

Things aren’t looking good but the form of those below them in the table is still keeping them above the drop-zone with nine matches to play.

Reading have been in pretty much every game they’ve played in recent weeks, winning and losing games by the odd goal. They are one of the entertainers down in the third tier of English football, as they are one of just four clubs to have both scored and conceded more than 50 goals so far this campaign.

The problem this season for the Royals has been on the road, their home form has been borderline play-off worthy but on their travels, they are looking like relegation fodder. With this one being in front of their own fans, coupled with the U’s shocking recent form, I like the home win here.

Leg 4 - Wrexham vs Tranmere Rovers - Home win @ 1/2

A brief sojourn down to EFL League Two where the best side in terms of home form in the division take on the 23rd best away side when it comes to the same criteria. I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to work out why I'm playing this leg.

Wrexham dropped two points at the Racecourse Ground against Harrogate Town in the week but that feels more like a blip.

Before that, Phil Parkinson’s side had won nine of their previous 10 league matches at home and have been on a roll that has taken them up the league table and very much into the promotion mix, as many of us expected before the season started.

If it wasn’t for some really good home form on the Wirral, Tranmere would be seriously looking over their shoulder. This game though is in Wales and that is not a good thing for the visitors. With just 12 points in total amassed on their travels from 19 games, if you put that with the 42 from just 18 that Wrexham have taken from their home matches, put this down for a home win.

Leg 5 - York City vs Aldershot Town - Away Win @ 8/5

Now we get to the match that takes this bet from a smidgen under 7/1 to just short of 19/1.

No team in the National League are in poorer form over their past five matches than York City. They’ve taken just a point from those games and that was a 0-0 draw against another relegation-threatened club in Kidderminster Harriers.

To the contrary, no team in the division has been in better form over their past five than Aldershot Town. The Shots are making a bee-line for the play-off places and their only dropped points in that spell was a 4-1 defeat at Roots Hall, a game in which they were ahead before a red card saw them undergo a bit of a second-half collapse.

The fact that the traders have made the home side the favourites in this match baffles me. It is certainly the odds that stick-out most when scrolling through the coupon as maybe being incorrect.

I know backing teams to win on the road is a tough ask but when two sides come into a game in very different form, with morale so high on one end but so low on another, taking the big price away victory feels like a very worthwhile punt to really inflate the numbers here.

The away win was available at 7/4 on Wednesday but is now just 8/5 as of early Thursday afternoon. It looks as though punters are onto this game as a good one to bet on.

The odds of just under 19/1 mean the traders think the chance of all five results going as we hope is just over 5%. That means they would expect these series of results just once in every 20 times this set of fixtures would be played.

With four odds-on home winners plus a very tasty priced away team to back, I think this is a value play.

You can check out all of our Football Accumulator Tips on our Acca hub page...