Four legs into our Saturday BTTS Tips column a week ago, all was looking good but Swansea missed countless chances against Plymouth to come up short. This along with a very surprising goalless draw at Tranmere saw us miss out.
This week we go six games deep, including a very rare trip to the Netherlands with a price a hair over 22/1 as of the time of writing...
Leg 1 - Luton Town vs Sheffield United @ 8/11
I have got to admit that this game would not be in my thoughts had I not watched what Luton did last weekend.
A point at Newcastle was a decent result but they conceded four times and it could (and maybe should) have been more. The Toon played through the Hatters midfield like it was not there but on the flip side, they did exactly the same to Eddie Howe’s men.
Sheffield United have started to find some prowess in front of goal in recent matches. They did very little against Aston Villa on Saturday evening but before that, they scored twice at Crystal Palace, did the same at home to Brighton in the Cup and against West Ham in the league. They also found the back of the net on four occasions at Priestfield in the Third Round of the Cup.
I like Luton to win this game but the Blades have every chance of finding the back of the net themselves. This is a huge relegation six-pointer and it will either be extremely cagey or desperate, I’m leaning heavily towards the latter.
Leg 2 - Southampton vs Huddersfield Town @ Evens
This is undoubtedly the biggest punt of the sixfold as all the statistics suggest this will be a home win to nil.
Southampton have won ten-straight matches in all competitions at St. Mary’s and in their past eight, only once have they even conceded. This is the type of form that sees a team skyrocket up the table to become automatic promotion chasers.
Yet Huddersfield make the long journey down to Hampshire on the back of a four-goal second-half outburst to down fellow relegation-strugglers Sheffield Wednesday at the weekend. Darren Moore had left in midweek and the team reacted as expected by putting in arguably their best performance of the season.
Only Manchester City have actually stopped the Terriers’ from scoring this side of Christmas. I don’t think they can come away with anything points-wise but they are doing well in front of goal and scoring at least the once is very plausible.
Leg 3 - Sunderland vs Plymouth Argyle @ 4/6
The Pilgrims were one of the shockers last week for our Saturday BTTS column as they made the relatively short-trip to Swansea and kept a clean sheet. The away side did score for the tenth straight game and they made it 11 on Tuesday night, despite being dumped out of the FA Cup by Leeds United after Extra Time.
You have to go back to the 13th December to find a game where Argyle failed to hit the back of the net and they were down to ten-men in the 25th minute that evening.
Michael Beale has endured an indifferent start to his spell as the top man at the Stadium of Light but their goals numbers have been pretty solid.
The only teams to keep a clean sheet against them this year are Newcastle (and the Mackems went very close in that game) and Hull City, who gave away 12 corners and saw the home side have 15 shots but they failed to score with any of them.
With the way Plymouth play, I like them to score every week and I think it is comfortably better than 50:50 that the home side join them on the scoresheet.
Leg 4 - Reading vs Charlton Athletic @ 4/7
Last week I put up Reading’s game for this very BTTS column in the early window and they were down 1-0 after about 70 minutes. I opened my phone to check and then walked to the back door to let the cat out. Upon my return to the sofa, the score had updated and for the 18th time in 20 games, Reading were BTTS Yes winners.
Until they fall short against a team not named Wigan Athletic (both of those misses were against the Lancashire club in that 18 of 20 run), I’m going to keep rolling with them.
Both of these sides are just above the drop-zone and the Addicks have only taken a solitary point since Christmas. They have actually managed to score in six of those nine games and against Reading, you have to like their chances.
Leg 5 - Grimsby Town vs Stockport County @ 4/6
This selection may well be influenced by that 5-5 draw with Notts County still sitting fresh in the memory, but when you actually take a deeper dive into the recent results at Blundell Park, it makes backing BTTS even more enticing.
The last time fans went away from a match at the ground without seeing both teams find the back of the net was all the way back in mid-October. That equates to nine-straight games where BTTS was a winner and in more than half of them, both sides have found the back of the net at least twice.
So goals are flowing up on the Lincolnshire coast and with high-scoring Stockport coming in this Saturday, this should be another high-scoring encounter with both sides contributing.
Leg 6 - Cambuur Leeuwarden vs VVV Venlo @ 8/15
Talk about going off the reservation but I am predominately a stats-based punter but when I see a team has been a BTTS winner in 17-straight league matches, it would seem foolish to not at least have a dabble, even if that means going over to the Dutch Second Division.
Yes, Cambuur have both scored and conceded in 17-straight Eerste Divisie games, going all the way back to a 1-0 home win against Willem II on 17 September 2023.
No team in the top-half of the table have found the back of the net more and unsurprisingly, the same is true in terms on the defensive side. With such a record, this seems like a good roll of the dice to plump up the odds.
Adding this leg takes the sixfold to 22.12/1 as of the time of writing, which comes in with implied odds of 4.3%. So the traders would say this sixfold comes in just under once in every 20 times should the same set of fixtures be played.
I think that is about right but the recent stats suggest every leg has a good chance of landing, with that Championship clash at St. Mary’s being the one to watch closely. Do you believe Southampton’s fine home defensive record more than Huddersfield’s recent run of scoring? That is probably the biggest question mark you have to answer before backing this accumulator.
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