Salernitana vs AC Milan Prediction: Rossoneri to edge past rock-bottom hosts

After a superb end to the 2022-23 Serie A season, where they lost just twice in their last 15 games to comfortably avoid relegation, Salernitana have fallen back into old habits. They are currently bottom of the table on eight points, five away from safety, ahead of Friday night's (KO, 19:45) meeting with AC Milan.

In contrast, the Rossoneri should arrive at Stadio Arechi in confident mood after picking up 10 points from their last five league games. Such form has resurrected the remote idea of challenging Inter Milan and Juventus for the title, though they are still nine points off their city rivals as they prepare to visit an old face, former Milan player and manager, Filippo Inzaghi, who is now in charge of Salernitana.

Team News

Salernitana's only major absentee is in goal, where Mexico international Guillermo Ochoa has been missing for the past four matches.

Milan have a lengthier injury list, with a couple of key players absent in defence. Pierre Kalulu and Malick Thiaw have been sidelined since October and November respectively, and remain so for Friday.

Simon Kjaer should start in central defence again, though, after making his comeback from injury in last Sunday's 3-0 win at Monza, meaning Theo Hernandez can continue in his left-back berth. Milan will also have Davide Calabria back from suspension, and he will rival Alessandro Florenzi for a spot at right-back.

Tommaso Pobega is unlikely to play after being substituted with an injury midway through the first-half last weekend, and he's likely to be replaced by Yunus Musah, who was ill for the Monza clash.

Noah Okafor is a doubt in attack after being substituted in that game, despite only coming on 13 minutes beforehand and scoring.

Match Odds

Salernitana are 13/2 to win just their second Serie A game of the season on Friday, with a Milan victory priced at 2/5 and the draw at 18/5.

Both teams to score is 10/11 and it's 8/11 for over 2.5 goals.

AC Milan to win and both teams to score @ 21/10

Both teams have scored in half (8/16) of Salernitana's and Milan's Serie A matches this term, and it's been even more frequent in the Rossoneri's away games (6/8), while the home side's last two at Stadio Arechi have seen both teams strike.

Milan's porous defence away from San Siro - they've conceded 14 on the road - should give Salernitana a chance of attaining a positive result, and they've not won in their last three league away games.

But Stefan Pioli's side should ultimately come out on top against a team that have picked up just six points at home - only Empoli (five) have accrued fewer.

Boulaye Dia to score anytime @ 13/5

The Senegalese striker has been nowhere near as prolific as last season, when he struck 16 times in 33 appearances to spearhead Salernitana's successful survival bid.

Dia only has four in 16 this term, but three of his total have come in Salerno, and he should be buoyed by the recent defensive statistics posted by Milan, especially on their travels.

Milan have conceded at least twice in their last three Serie A away matches, and only Sassuolo (17) have conceded more away from home in the top half.

Salernitana have scored in three of their last four at home, and as their top scorer, 13/5 is a fair price for Dia to find the net on Friday.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.