QPR vs Derby Prediction: Rs set for more home joy

Queens Park Rangers will look to bounce back from their agonising late defeat at Coventry City on Tuesday when they welcome Derby County to MATRADE Loftus Road on Friday (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event).

Derby head to west London with a new man in the dugout, having poached John Eustace from play-off chasing Blackburn Rovers. The Rams were held to a goalless draw at home to Oxford United last time out. Below you will find my QPR vs Derby prediction, featuring the latest team news and match odds.

QPR vs Derby Odds

QPR have won six of their past seven home matches in the league, so there is excellent value to be had in backing them to win at 23/20, which has an implied probability of 46.5%.

Derby have drawn their last two matches in the second tier and the stalemate can be backed at 12/5. The Rams are winless in their seven previous away trips in the Championship but they are 12/5 to come away with the three points.

Both teams to score has been a successful bet in four of the past five league encounters at Loftus Road, so this market looks attractive at 11/10 (47.6%).

Football Odds

Team News

QPR are coping with a number of injuries coming into the weekend. Defender Jake Clarke-Salter is out with a hip issue, and he is not scheduled to return until some point in March.

He is joined in the medical bay by Karamoko Dembele (unspecified), Zan Celar (hamstring) and Lucas Andersen (calf). Winger Paul Smyth was forced off in the second half against Coventry in midweek, so he is considered a doubt for Friday's clash.

Should he miss out, boss Marti Cifuentes may turn to Kieran Morgan or Tottenham Hotspur loanee Yang Min-Hyeok to take his place in the XI. Forward Michael Frey was on the scoresheet in the Rs last home game against Blackburn Rovers, and he is set to lead the line once again.

Derby travel to W12 with injury troubles of their own. Defender Curtis Nelson is out for the rest of the campaign with a knee injury, while Dajaune Brown, Kane Wilson and Corey Blackett-Taylor are ruled out with hamstring issues.

With Eustace taking charge of his first game, he may deviate away from the five-at-the-back set-up that caretaker Matt Hamshaw opted for in the games against Norwich City and Oxford United.

Eustace has preferred a 4-2-3-1 formation at both Blackburn and Birmingham City, so we could see him implement this shape from the off.

QPR and both teams to score @ 4/1

Friday will mark a second consecutive home game for QPR in which they will face a team managed by Eustace. He brought Blackburn to Shepherd's Bush on February 4, only to lose 2-1.

Eustace did get the better of the Rs at Ewood Park, though, but his results were stronger at home. The victory over Rovers is still fresh, so Cifuentes and his players will fancy themselves to prevail over a Derby side who are likely to have a similar shape. Not to mention the Rams have failed to win in their previous seven away days in the Championship.

The hosts have also been very strong on home turf in recent months. Six of the last seven encounters at Loftus Road have seen QPR pick up three points, and that kind of form is tough to disrupt.

Their structure should give them the edge over a side who are going through a transition, but they cannot afford to underestimate the fabled new manager bounce.

That being said, I do think QPR are worth backing to get the better of Eustace again, but seeing as BTTS has struck in four of the past five league matches here, I believe Derby will at least get on the scoresheet.

Over 2.5 goals @ 11/8

With that in mind, I feel as though there is also value to be had in backing over 2.5 goals. This selection has landed frequently here in recent months. There have been at least three goals scored in four of the previous five fixtures inside this stadium, including last time out against Blackburn.

In addition, this threshold has landed in three of Derby's past five away trips in the second tier, so I think there will be a few goals on offer during this Friday night offering in front of the Sky Sports cameras.

Offers

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