PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction: Dutch side to down Ukrainians in Eindhoven

At the halfway stage of the Uefa Champions League league phase, both PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk are in danger of missing out on knockout football next year. The Dutch side have only lost once in their first four games but have just five points to their name, while the Ukrainians are a point worse off despite winning the same number (one).

The two clubs meet at the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven on Wednesday (20:00, TNT Sports 9), and ahead of the matchday five meeting, you can check out my PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction down below, featuring team news and match odds.

Team News

Joey Veerman, Luuk de Jong and Noa Lang all missed Saturday's 5-0 thrashing of Groningen in the Eredivisie but the trio were expected to train on Tuesday afternoon and thus could play a part in Wednesday's match. However, Couhaib Driouech dropped out of practice on Monday due to an injury and looks set to be sidelined for the visit of the Ukrainians.

Sergino Dest, Fode Fofana, Adama Nagalo and Jerdy Schouten remain in the treatment room, meanwhile.

Football Odds

Shakhtar appear to have a fully fit squad for the midweek trip to Eindhoven, meaning head coach Marino Pusic could name an unchanged starting XI after seeing his side hammer Inhulets 6-0 in the Ukrainian Premier League on Saturday.

However, Brazilian forward Eguinaldo, who bagged a brace off the bench, is expected to be restored to the lineup, while Mykola Matviienko could also come in after starting Shakhtar's last Champions League contest, a 2-1 win against Young Boys earlier this month.

PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

PSV are 2/5 to make it back-to-back Champions League victories after thrashing Girona 4-0 last time out in the competition at Philips Stadion. Those odds give Peter Bosz's side an implied win probability of 71.4%, while Shakhtar are 13/2, or a 13.3% chance, to follow up their 2-1 victory over Young Boys with all three points in the Netherlands.

The draw is priced at 4/1, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 11/8.

PSV striker De Jong (11/10) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by his deputy Ricardo Pepi (23/20), who hit a hat-trick in his absence on the weekend. Lassina Traore and Danylo Sikan (both 4/1) are considered Shakhtar's most likely men to score anytime on Wednesday.

Player to Receive a Card - Rick Karsdorp (PSV) @ 4/1

I’ve had great success with player card picks in games involving PSV and Shakhtar this season, so in a meeting between the two sides on Wednesday, why not go for gold again?

I’ve selected an opposition player to be carded twice against Shakhtar - Bologna’s Stefan Posch and Young Boys’ Lewis Blum, who were both subsequently booked. It took less than two minutes for Austrian right-back Posch to receive a yellow in their goalless draw on September 18, while Swiss full-back Blum was cautioned in the 40th minute of Shakhtar’s 2-1 win over Young Boys on November 6. In my Shakhtar-Young Boys preview, I also raised the possibility of a card for another full-back, Zachary Athekame, who was shown a yellow just before the interval in that game.

Meanwhile, I backed PSV left-back Matteo Dams for a booking at 11/2 in the Dutch side's 1-1 draw with Paris Saint-Germain at the Parc des Princes on October 22. The 20-year-old made three fouls in that stalemate and was shown a yellow in the 77th minute for his misdemeanours. At 13/2, I'm tempted to plump for Dams again on Wednesday, especially as he was carded in PSV's last European outing, a 4-0 thrashing of Girona on November 5.

Instead, I've opted for PSV's right-back, Rick Karsdorp, to find himself in the referee's black book. Like Dams, the 29-year-old was shown a yellow against Girona, with the more experienced full-back receiving his two minutes before, in the 58th minute. That was his first start of this league phase campaign with injury having denied him any involvement against Juventus or PSG.

Karsdorp is averaging a foul per game in this season's Eredivisie and has been booked once in the Dutch top flight, in the 3-2 defeat to Ajax on November 2, three days prior to that victory over Girona. He's struggled for regular game time in the last few years but in the last league season where he featured in at least half of the matches, the 2021/22 Serie A campaign, he was shown nine yellows and one red, highlighting his tenacity which, at times, has spilled over.

The Dutchman should get the nod to start at right-back on Wednesday and that should mean him coming into direct contact with Shakhtar winger Kevin, who was fouled three times against Young Boys last time out in the competition. Opposing winger Oleksandr Zubkov, who sometimes moves out to the left, was fouled twice, and both brought about bookings for both full-backs - Blum and Athekame.

It was Eguinaldo who started out on the left in Shakhtar's 1-0 defeat to Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium on October 22 and the Brazilian won a free-kick in the first half from Gunners right-back Ben White, who was shown a yellow.

With Posch being booked in Shakhtar's first game against Bologna for a foul on Eguinaldo, who was upended a further two times by the 27-year-old before the half-hour mark, it means four of the six full-backs Shakhtar have faced in this season's Champions League have been shown a card (Atalanta played a 3-4-1-2 formation with wing-backs rather than full-backs in their 3-0 victory over the Ukrainians).

PSV, meanwhile, have seen both full-backs booked in their last two European outings - Karsdorp and Dams v Girona, Mauro Junior and Dams v PSG - while Mauro Junior was also carded in the 1-1 draw at home to Sporting on October 1.

Backing any of the above trio looks like a good shout, but my advice would be to go for Karsdorp, with Kevin and Eguinaldo the biggest foul magnets for the visitors and most likely to operate from left-sided positions.

To Win to Nil - PSV @ 11/8

Both teams won their first league phase game last time out in the competition but it should be noted that Shakhtar's victory came at 'home', on neutral ground in Gelsenkirchen, Germany. Prior to that success at the Veltins Arena, the Miners had failed to find the net in any of their first three Champions League contests, drawing 0-0 in Bologna before losing 3-0 in Gelsenkirchen to Atalanta and suffering a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal in north London.

PSV, meanwhile, have only been beaten once in this season's Champions League, and that was on matchday one as they went down 3-1 to Juventus in Turin. They responded to that loss by eking out 1-1 draws at home to Sporting and away to PSG before battering Girona on November 5. That victory over the La Liga side was the first of three without conceding and they will be desperate to make it four wins to nil on Wednesday which would complete an entire calendar month without letting in a goal.

Considering Shakhtar have scored just three times across their last five away games, blanking in both European outings at Bologna and Arsenal, I give the hosts a real good chance of keeping a fourth consecutive clean sheet.

They should be good for all three points, too, given they have won seven of their eight home matches across the Eredivisie and Champions League, with only Sporting denying them a 100 per cent record at the Philips Stadion - and the Farmers were leading in Eindhoven until Daniel Braganca's 84th-minute equaliser for the reigning Portuguese league champions.

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