PSG vs PSV Prediction: Dembele spells danger for Dams

Paris Saint-Germain began the league phase of the 2024/25 Uefa Champions League with a 1-0 victory over Girona but suffered a setback in their top-eight ambitions after suffering a 2-0 defeat at Arsenal. The reigning Ligue 1 champions will be looking to return to winning ways in the competition on Tuesday (20:00, TNT Sports 5), however, when they host 2023/24 Eredivisie winners PSV Eindhoven at the Parc des Princes.

Below you can read my PSG vs PSV prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this Champions League clash in the French capital. 

Team News

PSG are still without injured trio Presnel Kimpembe, Lucas Hernandez and Goncalo Ramos, although the former is back in training as he steps up his comeback following 20 months on the sidelines.

Randal Kolo Muani missed Saturday's 4-2 win over Strasbourg and he is thought to be touch-and-go ahead of Tuesday's contest, but Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes and Achraf Hakimi, who all stayed on the bench against Le Racing, are set to return to the starting XI.

Hakimi's inclusion should free up 18-year-old Warren Zaire-Emery to move to a more familiar midfield role, while Mendes and Marquinhos are likely to replace Lucas Beraldo and Milan Skriniar, respectively.

Ousmane Dembele also remained rooted to the bench on the weekend and he too should make Tuesday's lineup, with Marco Asensio or Desire Doue making way for the France international.

Spain star Fabian Ruiz will also hope to play from the start after coming on as a second-half substitute against Strasbourg, but 18-year-old Senny Mayulu, who opened the scoring on Saturday, will take some shifting from the midfield.

Football Odds

PSV are likely to be without Sergino Dest, Jerdy Schouten and Joey Veerman for the trip to Paris with Schouten, who scored in the Dutch team's 1-1 draw at home to Sporting last month, taken off at half-time of Saturday's 2-1 win at AZ Alkmaar.

Mexican winger Hirving Lozano is also doubtful after missing his side's last seven games due to injury, but Belgian defender Matteo Dams is free to return after being banned for their weekend victory at AFAS Stadion.

PSG vs PSV Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main PSG vs PSV page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

PSG are 4/9 to make it back-to-back Champions League home wins this season, giving the hosts an implied probability of 69.2%, while PSV are 11/2, or a 15.4% chance, to triumph for the first time in the league phase.

The draw is available at 4/1, both teams to score at 8/13, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/9.

Kolo Muani (6/5) head the anytime goalscorer market followed by Bradley Barcola (13/10), Asensio (7/5) and Dembele (8/5), with Luuk de Jong (12/5) shortest priced for the visitors.

Double Chance & BTTS - Draw or PSV & Yes @ 13/5

PSG have been pretty flawless at the Parc des Princes this season, winning all four games there in Ligue 1 either side of victory over Girona in the Champions League. Luis Enrique's side also won their first two Champions League home matches in 2023/24, beating Borussia Dortmund 2-0 and AC Milan 3-0 in the group stage, but they subsequently drew 1-1 with Newcastle United, lost 3-2 to Barcelona and 1-0 to Dortmund, so along with overcoming Real Sociedad 2-0, Les Parisiens only won half (3/6) of their home contests in the competition.

They were well beaten in north London last time out in the Champions League as first-half goals from Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka put Arsenal in the ascendancy, and question marks still remain over the big-game credentials of PSG.

Tuesday's opponents, PSV, aren't one of European football's elite and thus perhaps don't fit into the above category, but they're a more than competent team that can cause teams headaches. Juventus brushed them aside 3-1 in Turin last month but Sporting were made to work for their point in Eindhoven at the start of October as Schouten's 15th-minute strike was only cancelled out in the 84th minute by Daniel Braganca.

Peter Bosz's side romped to the Eredivisie title last season, winning the league by seven points, and they've made a scintillating start to the defence of their crown by collecting a maximum of 27 points from their first nine games.

Now, PSV need to translate their domestic form to Europe, which is easier said than done.

PSG dwarf their spending and have the much better individual players but that counts for little on the field, where I expect PSV to be competitive.

The French giants, meanwhile, may suffer in attack with both Ramos and Kolo Muani potentially out of action. It took Enrique's side until the 90th minute in their last European home game against Girona to force a winner, and that was only achieved through a disastrous own-goal by Argentine goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga.

As such, I think it's worth plumping for the double chance on PSV, whose only defeat in regulation time this season came at Juventus.

We can boost the odds up to a tasty-looking 13/5 by backing both teams to score which has landed in seven of PSG's 10 games this season - two of which they have failed to win - and nine of PSV's 12.

Player to Receive a Card - Matteo Dams (PSV) @ 11/2

Dams has been a regular in the PSV starting XI in his first full season with the first team, starting their opening Champions League games and five of their first eight league matches before a red card in a 2-1 victory over Sparta Rotterdam kept him out of their weekend win against AZ.

The 20-year-old will hope to return at left-back on Tuesday in place of Mauro Junior, who moved across from right-back to cover for the Belgian on Saturday.

If Dams does start in Paris, he can expect to be kept busy up against Dembele, who should return to PSG's right-hand side.

Dembele can be a tricky, if unpredictable, customer, but the difficulty of dealing with him is evidenced by the fact he was fouled three times against Girona last month, and he was fouled an average of 1.2 times per game in the Champions League in 2023/24.

Dams made one foul in PSV's opening European match at Juventus and went one further at home to Sporting earlier this month, while he's averaging 0.6 fouls per game in the Eredivisie, picking up a yellow card in a 2-0 win at Willem II in September before receiving one of the red variety against Sparta Rotterdam.

He's also been cautioned in the Eerste Divisie this term, despite playing just twice for Jong PSV.

The data is small in senior football for Dams, but considering he's already fallen foul of the referee this season and will potentially come into direct contact with one of Europe's best wingers in Dembele, 11/2 may be worth taking on for him to receive a card on Tuesday.

Offers

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