PSV vs Girona: Hosts to have too much for injury-hit visitors

PSV Eindhoven head into round four of the Uefa Champions League league phase this week still looking for their first win in this season's new-look competition. Their opponents at Philips Stadion on Tuesday evening (17:45, TNT Sports 3), Girona, lost their first two matches but beat Slovan Bratislava 2-0 last time out to sit a point ahead of their hosts in the table.

Below you can find my PSV vs Girona prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

PSV dropped their first Eredivisie points of the 2024/25 campaign on Saturday, losing 3-2 to Ajax. It will be interesting to see how head coach Peter Bosz responds to that defeat - will he regard it as a blip or a sign that he may need to make major changes ahead of Girona's visit to Eindhoven?

Nine players started PSV's last Champions League game, a 1-1 draw with Paris Saint-Germain in France on October 22, and Saturday's defeat in Amsterdam. Only right-back Rick Karsdorp and winger Ivan Perisic missed the first and started the second.

PSV beat Zwolle 6-0 in between those high-profile contests with Ricardo Pepi handed a rare opportunity to impress, which he took as he bagged a brace.

I don't envisage the American forward starting on Tuesday, however. Luuk de Jong is sure to get the nod again up top, supported by Noah Lang and most likely Johan Bakayoko, who has been restricted to two substitute outings since starting in Paris.

Bakayoko for Perisic is the most likely change to be made to the starting XI by Bosz, who remains without injured quintet Hirving Lozano, Jerdy Schouten, Sergino Dest, Adamo Nagalo and Joey Veerman.

Football Odds

Girona beat Leganes 4-3 in La Liga on Saturday, making it back-to-back wins after thrashing CD Extremadura in the Copa del Rey three days prior.

Oriol Romeu made his comeback from injury in the most recent of those victories, playing the final 19-plus minutes at the Estadio Municipal de Montilivi. The 33-year-old had been out for over a month but will now be eyeing a return to the starting XI, particularly with Ivan Martin and Yaser Asprilla both out injured, while he replaced 19-year-old Solvi Clua Oya at half-time on the weekend.

Cristhian Stuani is another seeking to earn a start after scoring within a minute of his introduction on Saturday, albeit his goal did come from the penalty spot. The 38-year-old started the win over Slovan Bratislava, however, and his side's success in that game could help his cause here.

Girona's lengthy injury list also includes the likes of Abel Ruiz, Gabriel Misehouy, Viktor Tysgankov, Arnaut Danjuma and Portu, who will all miss Tuesday's trip to the Netherlands.

PSV vs Girona Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main PSV vs Girona page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

PSV are 7/10 to win their first league phase match on Tuesday, giving the hosts an implied probability of 58.8%, while Girona are 18/5, or a 21.7% chance, to make it back-to-back victories in the competition. A draw, meanwhile, can be backed at 3/1.

Both teams to score is priced at 4/7 and over 2.5 total goals the same.

De Jong (5/4) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by teammate Pepi (11/8), while PSV duo Lang and Couhaib Driouech, as well as Girona forwards Stuani and Bojan Miovski, are all 11/5.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - PSV & Yes @ 2/1

It's looking like now or never for PSV if they want to make a tilt for the top eight and secure automatic entry to the last 16 of the Champions League. Heading into round four of the league phase, PSV sit 28th - five points behind eighth-placed Sporting.

In fairness to the Dutch side, they've been dealt a difficult fixture list so far, losing 3-1 away to Juventus in round one before being held to a 1-1 draw by Sporting in Eindhoven.

A stalemate by the scoreline in Paris last time out was impressive, though, and simultaneously landed a 13/5 tip for a draw or PSV and both teams to score in my PSG vs PSV preview.

I'm backing Bosz's side to achieve another positive result on Tuesday, but this time I'm going all out on the hosts to win, while adding both teams to score again to boost the odds to 2/1.

One win in three games isn't encouraging form ahead of the visit of Girona but both matches in which they dropped points came away from home at 'big' clubs, while their only other defeat in regulation time this season was much of the same as they lost in Turin to Juventus.

In Eindhoven, PSV have been close to perfect, winning all five Eredivisie outings and drawing in the Champions League with Sporting, who I rate as a better team than Girona.

Bosz's side have conceded in three of those matches and are yet to keep a clean sheet in a continental contest this term, though, so Tuesday's visitors, who have scored exactly four goals in their last two games and exactly two in their previous two Champions League bouts, will believe that they can find the net on Tuesday.

Girona arguably overachieved last season, finishing third in La Liga, and haven't been able to emulate that kind of success so far, currently sitting 11th in their domestic league at the time of writing.

Injuries have also severely affected them, with many still in the treatment room ahead of the trip to the Netherlands.

For all of the above reasons, I believe PSV will reign supreme on Tuesday, but I think Girona can at least get themselves on the scoresheet against a side that has conceded in 11 of their 15 matches this term.

Player to Receive a Card - Ladislav Krejci (GIR) @ 9/5

I also successfully tipped a card for PSV left-back Matteo Dams (13/2) in their draw with PSG, so I'm going to try and emulate that achievement here, albeit at reduced odds of 9/5 for Girona defender Ladislav Krejci.

Like Dams, Krejci is left-footed and plays on the left-hand side of defence, although with Girona usually deploying wing-backs the Czech Republic international is more likely to be seen in central defensive areas rather than marauding down the wing.

In a sense, though, that can be more dangerous, particularly if left wing-back Miguel Gutierrez leaves him exposed against PSV's right winger, which is likely to be Bakayoko or Perisic.

Bakayoko is the more likely out of the two to start, in my opinion, and although the Belgian is yet to be fouled in the Champions League this season, he is established as a difficult player to defend and was fouled an average of 0.8 times in the competition last term.

Krejci, meanwhile, is also likely to be in close contact with 6ft2in PSV striker De Jong, who was fouled twice by Sporting and once by PSG. The 34-year-old was also fouled an average of 1.3 times per game in the 2023/24 Champions League.

De Jong, Bakayoko and the rest of PSV are likely to put Girona and Krejci under immense pressure on Tuesday as they go in search of their first three points in the competition's league phase, and that could see Krejci commit a few fouls along the way.

The 25-year-old is averaging exactly a foul per game in this season's La Liga and Champions League, being booked twice in the former competition and once in the latter. His yellow on the continental stage came in Girona's only away outing, in Paris on matchday one, when he was cautioned for a foul on PSG's tricky winger Ousmane Dembele, who was hauled down by Dams to land the 13/5 bet on the Dutchman last time out.

There's no Dembele to win a foul or draw a booking here but I still think Krejci, who was booked on the weekend against Leganes for arguing despite not playing a minute and received a card in his last league start at Las Palmas, is someone who could draw the ire of the referee in Eindhoven.

Offers

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Champions League game on Tuesday or Wednesday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Thursday’s Europa League games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement)

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.