Tottenham vs Aston Villa Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips: Low-scoring affair likely in North London

Tottenham Hotspur have made a solid start to life under Thomas Frank and began this weekend third in the Premier League table after taking 14 points from their opening seven games. However, their underlying statistics have been more akin to those of a mid-table team, and they face a tough challenge on Sunday (14:00 BST, Sky Sports Main Event) as they host Aston Villa, who have turned things around with four wins on the bounce.

Below are my Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips.

Under 2.5 goals

Spurs have managed to salvage results from difficult positions in recent weeks, equalising late against Wolves before coming from two goals down to draw 2-2 with Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League.

Thomas Frank’s side also beat Leeds 2-1 last time out, and there is a sense that they have been getting away with it somewhat.

That is reflected in the numbers; they have overperformed their Premier League expected goals tally by 5.6, the most of any team in the division.

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa Odds

That good fortune may run short soon enough, however, and they could be frustrated by a Villa side that tends to play out low-scoring affairs away from home.

Unai Emery’s side have tightened things up at the back, allowing just two goals in their last four games, and this match is fancied to go under 2.5 goals.

Matty Cash (AVL) to be carded

Dealing with Tottenham’s tricky forward line is a tough task for an opposition defender, and Matty Cash may find that out the hard way in this one.

The right-back has already been booked twice this season, and only John McGinn and Emi Buendia have given up more fouls for the Villans than Cash’s total of seven.

Against Mohammed Kudus, Mathys Tel or Xavi Simons, the Poland international defender is fancied for another caution.

Premier League Odds

Morgan Rogers (AVL) to have a shot on target

After something of a slow start to the season, things have picked up for Morgan Rogers recently, and he is aiming for a third assist in a row in this game.

The England international also leads the way with four shots on target for Villa this season and looks a good bet to add to that against a Tottenham team that ranks 17th for shots on target allowed.

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