Arsenal vs Brighton Prediction: Gunners to secure a shutout?

Arsenal were two points clear at the top of the Premier League at Christmas, and they will be desperate to keep top spot come the final weekend in May. They edged past Crystal Palace on penalties in midweek to book their place in the semi-finals of the Carabao Cup, but winning their home games is vital as they bid to fend off the charge of Manchester City in the league. 

Next up the Gunners host Brighton (15:00 GMT), looking for another victory in the Premier League. 

Team News

Arsenal left Viktor Gyokeres on the bench for the full 90 against Palace in midweek, as Gabriel Jesus started up front. However, the Brazilian was wasteful so it will be interesting to see whether Mikel Arteta goes back to the big Swede for this one. I expect he will.

He was one of eight changes the manager made for the penalty shootout win, so expect the usual suspects in the form of Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice, and Bukayo Saka to all start having come off the bench on Tuesday. David Raya will return in goal while Martin Zubimendi should also reclaim his spot in midfield. 

Brighton boss Fabian Hurzeler could be strengthened by the return of five first-team players for this one. Danny Welbeck and Jan Paul van Hecke should both be available for the game having missed the 0-0 draw with Sunderland. The German will also have Lewis Dunk and Diego Gomez back from suspension, while Mats Wieffer will be monitored ahead of the clash.

"Danny Welbeck will train today [Tuesday], so he'll be back," said Hurzeler. "Jan Paul will train on Wednesday so he should be back. The two suspended players will be back and Mats Wieffer is okay. We go day by day and follow the procedure, but he looks quite well. I think that he will also be available."

Arsenal vs Brighton Odds

Arsenal are just 4/9 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 69%. Brighton are 7/1 to cause a shock, a draw is 18/5 and over 2.5 goals is 8/13.

BTTS is 10/11 and Gyokeres is the favourite to score first at 7/2. 

Arsenal clean sheet @ 11/10

Given the uncertainty at the top of the pitch, I think the best way to play this fixture is to back Arsenal’s defence to come out with a clean sheet. Riccardo Calafiori, Jurrien Timber and William Saliba all started in midweek, while we can perhaps expect Piero Hincapie to join them in a sturdy back four. 

Brighton have only scored one goal in their last three outings, failing to score in their last two including the 0-0 home draw with Sunderland. I think the home side should feel confident in keeping the Seagulls out, having only conceded in injury time against Crystal Palace in midweek. Decent price for a shutout. 

Correct score - Arsenal 2-0 Brighton @ 6/1

I don’t think this will be a high-scoring game, or a game with many cards or corners, so I’m venturing into the correct score market for the final selection. Arsenal should keep a clean sheet as I’ve just suggested, but I’m not expecting them to blow away a competitive Brighton outfit. I think this will be a very routine 2-0 home win, without any drama. 

Potentially, the sort of simple win that makes Arsenal champions at the end of the season…

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