Premier League Top 6 Finish Odds: West Ham the value pick if Lopetegui can piece it all together

Aston Villa were last season's top six gatecrashers as the Villans made light of the pre-season odds to finish fourth. Chelsea also regained their spot in the top six, with Newcastle United and Brighton & Hove Albion, who placed fourth and sixth respectively in 2022/23, dropping out.

Below you can find the Premier League top 6 finish odds for eight teams that I believe to have a great chance, or an outside shot, of making the European spots, except for last season's top three - Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, whose prices aren't worth discussing.

Premier League Odds

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Chelsea @ 2/5

This is a price I just can't get on board with. Chelsea rallied to a sixth-place finish last season, winning their final five games to pip Newcastle United to a Europa Conference League berth, but that wasn't enough to save Mauricio Pochettino's job and he was replaced in the summer by Leicester City's Enzo Maresca, fresh from leading the Foxes to the Championship title.

The Italian is an unknown quantity in the Premier League, however, while the west London club's haphazard approach to the transfer window has continued.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Filip Jorgensen and Renato Veiga are among those to have signed for the Blues but has the first XI, or indeed the squad, been significantly improved? Petro Neto is probably their standout arrival, and the Portugal international's injury history makes it uncertain that he lasts the course of the campaign.

A top-six finish certainly isn't beyond them given the considerable talent at Maresca's disposal, notably Cole Palmer, Christopher Nkunku and Malo Gusto, but I wouldn't be able to attach any degree of certainty to it, and in fact, I think they will miss out on Europe.

Manchester United @ 4/7

Chelsea's issues seem to hog most of the headlines these days and while Manchester United are making moves to rise from the mess they have found themselves in recent years, the Red Devils aren't exactly in rude health either.

Erik ten Hag led Man United to their lowest-ever Premier League finish of eighth in 2023/24 and was rewarded with a contract extension. Go figure.

Yes, the Red Devils were brilliant at Wembley in May as they ousted local rivals Manchester City 2-1 to lift the FA Cup, but that was the outlier in a deeply embarrassing season.

Still, Ten Hag's squad has only been strengthened this summer by the arrivals of Leny Yoro, Joshua Zirkzee, Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui, while the departures of Raphael Varane and Aaron Wan-Bissake shouldn't hit them too hard.

However, injuries have stuck the club down already with 18-year-old centre-back Yoro ruled out for the opening months of the campaign and Luke Shaw sidelined once again.

Man Utd should still make the top six this term but with Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa all looking menacing, it's far from a done deal.

Tottenham Hotspur @ 4/6

Tottenham Hotspur started last season in fine form but as injuries and suspensions started to stack up, the Lilywhites slumped alarmingly, and they spent the rest of the campaign playing catch up to Aston Villa, who eventually secured fourth place in the penultimate matchweek.

Still, 66 points and fifth spot was an improvement on the 60 points and eighth place finish of 2022/23, and with Ange Postecoglou at the helm, there are high hopes for Spurs going forward.

The north London club have strengthened in the summer transfer window, signing Dominic Solanke and Archie Gray, while Lucas Bergvall has arrived after agreeing a move in January.

A top-class winger would be the icing on the cake really, but Spurs look good for a top-six finish at the very least.

Newcastle United @ 8/11

After finishing fourth in 2022/23, thereby bringing Champions League football back to St James' Park for the first time since 2004, Newcastle United dipped last season, dropping down to seventh and missing out on European football. Injuries and suspension played their part, but Eddie Howe will have been disappointed that the Magpies couldn't at least finish above a troubled Chelsea.

Newcastle should return hungrier this season, and with the likes of Alexander Isak, Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali strutting their stuff on Tyneside, Howe's side look well placed to finish in the top six this term, with another tilt for the top four likely considering they don't have to deal with the demands of European fixtures.

A lack of summer signings, alongside the sales of Yankuba Minteh and Elliot Anderson, has quelled optimism a tad, but if the Magpies can get two or three in the door by the end of August and keep Isak fit for a full season, they look nailed-on for a top-six finish.

Aston Villa @ 5/4

An interesting price given they ended the campaign eight points above both Man United and Newcastle, as well as five and two ahead of Chelsea and Spurs respectively, Aston Villa will be looking to emulate last season's achievements under Unai Emery.

The Spaniard masterminded the Midlands club to a top-four finish which secured entry to the rebranded Champions League for the first time in their history, with Ollie Watkins putting himself on the map with 19 Premier League goals.

The Villans have been one of the busiest clubs in the summer transfer window, selling Douglas Luiz, Moussa Diaby and Tim Iroegbunam but bringing in Amadoua Onana, Ian Maatsen and Enzo Barrenechea, among others.

However, fans believe they are still light in key areas of the pitch, namely on the right side of defence and up front.

With Emery in charge, there appears to be little to worry about, but until a couple more signings are made, Villa perhaps aren't the most enticing option in this market.

West Ham United @ 5/1

What a summer it has been for West Ham United supporters. The east Londoners have signed Luis Guilherme, Max Kilman, Crysencio Summerville, Niclas Fullkrug, Guido Rodriguez, Jean-Clair Todibo and Aaron Wan-Bissaka while so far retaining the services of Mohammed Kudus, Lucas Paqueta and Jarrod Bowen.

On paper, the Irons have a squad that should at the very least be competing for the top six places.

West Ham also have a new manager in place after the departure of David Moyes, who left the club after a ninth-place finish last season. They finished 11 points behind the European spots and ex-Wolves head coach Julen Lopetegui will be tasked with improving results and performances.

Lopetegui has a lot to prove at the London Stadium but I do like West Ham's price in this market. If it all clicks, something special could be on the cards, but with the Irons, everything could unravel very quickly.

Whatever happens, it's unlikely to be dull.

Brighton 11/2

Another Premier League side to have made a big splash in the transfer market this summer, Brighton have signed no fewer than six players, and more appear to be on their way.

Three of their new arrivals - Yankuba Minteh, Mats Wieffer and Brajan Gruda - cost over £25m, and they could soon be joined on that list by Turkish full-back Ferdi Kadioglu, who is reportedly on his way from Fenerbahce.

It will be interesting to see how the Seagulls shape their squad in the rest of the window considering their attacking options appear to be rather bloated now. As it stands, Minteh, Gruda, Ibrahim Osman, Simon Adingra, Julio Enciso, Kaoru Mitoma, Jeremy Sarmiento, Amario Cozie-Duberry, Joao Pedro, Danny Welbeck and Evan Ferguson are all competing for three or four starting positions - surely a couple will be on their way before the end of August.

New head coach Fabian Hurzeler certainly can't complain about a lack of options available to him. The 31-year-old is younger than several of his players but has been given a huge amount of responsibility by the Brighton board, and he will be expected to deliver. I don't think making the top six is of paramount importance this season as it will take time for the German to implement his ideas, but the Seagulls should be pushing for the top 10, and who knows where that may take them.

Roberto De Zerbi steered the club to sixth in 2022/23 and it wouldn't be wild to see the Seagulls emulate that achievement.

Crystal Palace @ 12/1

Crystal Palace finished 10th last term but under Oliver Glasner, their form was that of a top-six side. The Austrian took charge of his first game on February 24 and won seven of his 13 games, inspiring the Eagles to 24 points from 39 available.

The question now is whether Palace can keep up that form over a full season, and they haven't been helped by the summer exit of influential attacker Michael Olise, who has joined German giants Bayern Munich.

There are also reports that central defensive pairing Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen could be off to Newcastle United and Fulham respectively; losing one or both could be catastrophic to their chances of reaching the top six.

Of course, another top-10 finish would be considered a success, and with Eberechi Eze, Adam Wharton and Jean-Philippe Mateta still at the club, there is optimism that another successful season is in the offing.

However, to really push on, the Eagles probably require another couple of exciting additions, and to keep hold of at least one of their centre-backs.

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