Portugal v France Prediction: 1-1 draw at 5/1 could be in business

It’s Portugal v France on Friday, July 5 (20:00, BBC One) with a place in the semi-finals up for grabs between two old foes who may well cancel each other out.

Portugal-based James Pacheco has picks from the correct score market, match winner and two first goalscorer picks to keep us interested throughout as he takes us through his Portugal vs France Predictions...

Portugal

It’s hard to know where to start with Portugal’s ‘win’ over Slovenia. Such as the fact that it wasn’t a win at all but rather a goalless draw after 120 minutes, where their greater experience from the spot eventually allowed them to book their place in the next round.

Before that there was a first-half where they dominated, a second-half where they appeared to lose their grip on the game, that Ronaldo penalty miss, and of course, that crucial Diogo Costa save that stopped them from probably going out there and there then before a shootout.

Costa of course was the big hero and rightly so but Portugal know perfectly well it shouldn’t have come to that. They had 72.1% possession, 20 shots to Slovenia’s 10 but as ever, conversion was a problem. They’re unlikely to have that much of the ball against France or as many shots so something’s going to have to improve.

Ah, Ronaldo. It seems like the penny still hasn’t dropped that there’s a bigger picture than his own goalscoring records. He took every free-kick within shooting distance and throughout the match cut a frustrated figure of a man desperately looking for a goal and perhaps looking and trying a bit too hard. That missed penalty could well have cost them dearly, though he did admittedly make some amends with the one in the shootout.

Robert Martinez would be perfectly entitled to drop him here. Not just because he played 120 minutes aged 39 but also because after four starts and a penalty he got to take, he still hasn’t scored.

Diogo Jota or Goncalo Ramos would bring more energy, movement and a different option but to leave CR7 out would be just about the biggest call in the history of Portuguese football.

Possible XI: Costa, Cancelo, Pepe, Dias, Mendes, Palhinha, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Leao, Ronaldo/Jota.

France

France have been pretty unimpressive given their reputation and the players at their disposal.

In four matches they’ve scored just three goals so far. Two were own goals, including the winner against Belgium, the other a Kylian Mbappe penalty against Poland. So if Portugal think goals have been hard to come by, they should feel better about life if they look at their quarter-final opponents’ record.

Still, they got through against a Belgium side who never got going but are always potentially dangerous. And they’ve conceded just once in four games, so that’s a positive at least.

Much like with Ronaldo and Portugal, all eyes are on Mbappe, that facial injury, and the extent to which it’s restricting him, because he’s had a quiet tournament so far.

Ngolo Kante has been superb and ably assisted by Adrien Rabiot in the heart of midfield. But Rabiot, the ever-impressive Antoine Griezmann and A Tchouameni are all just one booking away from a suspension. If they get to the next round, of course.

Possible XI: Maignan, Hernandez, Saliba, Upmecano, Kounde, Rabiot, Tchouameni, Kante, Mbappe, Thuram, Griezmann.

Portugal vs France Odds

Portugal are 23/10, the draw is 2/1 and France 7/5. We can make a case for any of the three.

First, France. 28 matches between these two over the years have yielded 19 wins for the French, an excellent head-to-head record, though admittedly many of those are going way back in years. That stat does however include the 1-0 back in 2006 courtesy of a Zinedine Zidane penalty before the mercurial former Juventus man ended his career in a cloud of controversy with his infamous red card in the final. As runners-up back in the Euros in 2016 to Portugal (we’ll come to that in a bit) and winners of the World Cup in 2018 and runners-up in 2022, they have a habit of going deep of late; but of course, that’s not to say some of those knockout matches weren’t won in extra time.

Portugal just look a bit big in terms of what we know they can do. If it clicks, if their finishing improves, if they play their natural game, they can be too good for a somewhat suspect France side on their day. This however is countered by the fact that they’ve failed to beat Friday’s opponents in their last 21 attempts, the last time being back in 1946!

What about their Euro 2016 success, you ask? Well, it’s worth remembering that one was a 0-0 draw after 90 minutes, which Portugal won in extra time, so goes down as a draw. The stalemate looks the best of the three here, too. Since 2020 they’ve played each other three times and two ended in stalemates. The last two times they met in the Euros (2000 and 2016) it was a draw at 90 minutes and given they look quite well-matched in most areas, it would be no surprise if they cancelled each other out by full-time.

Correct Score

First things first, this is a straight choice between 0-0 and 1-1 if we believe a draw is on the cards. The 2-2 looks attractive at 16/1 but there’s nothing we’ve seen from either team so far to suggest this might be an open, goal-filled game.

0-0 is the slightly bigger price at 6/1 and both sides have each already had one of those in their four matches so far.

But there’s some good attacking talent on display and across those 28 matches in their history between them, only two (including the Euro 2016 final) ended goalless so that’s somewhat unlikely according to the history books. 1-1 ‘just about’ gets the nod at 5/1.

Goalscorers

I always think it makes sense to look for bigger prices on the first goalscorer market than the anytime scorer market…if you think the match will be low-scoring. After all, one goal could easily win it here.

I’ll ignore the two big names of Mbappe (7/2) and Ronaldo (4/1) who have shown to be out of sorts and pick a decent candidate from each side who tick the boxes of: having good scoring records, ‘might’ be on set piece duty (if Ronaldo lets anyone else take a free-kick), are guaranteed starters and like a shot from distance. Griezmann (7/1) and Bruno Fernandes (8/1) are the ones best meeting that criteria.

You can get all the latest betting prices for all the matches in this tournament on our Euro 2024 Odds page over on betfred.com

Betfred Match Offers:

Goal Fever

Throughout Euro 2024, Betfred are offering all customers a 25% cash bonus if your selected team in the Match Result market wins by 3+ Goals on selected matches. Portugal vs France is part of this promotion, so if you back and team and they win by three or more, you would see 25% added to your winnings on that bet.

Double Delight & Hat-Trick Heaven

This Portugal vs France game is also one for those who like a bit of a potential bonus in the first goalscorer markets. Should the player you bet on score first and subsequently go on to score a second in the match, we'll double the odds and if they get a hat-trick, we'll treble the odds!

Bet Builder Offer

For this Portugal vs France Quarter-Final, you can place a Bet Builder of 4+ legs at 3/1 or more and if it loses, you get 100% of your stake back up to £10 in Free Bets.

Jamie Pacheco primarily covers Cricket and Portuguese football for us here at Betfred Insights and he'll be following the Portuguese national side throughout the Euro's for us. You can check out his and all the other Football Betting Tips from our writing staff on our main Football hub page.