Netherlands vs Turkey Prediction: The Oranje to edge this quarter-final battle

 | Friday 5th July 2024, 9:45am

Friday 5th July 2024, 9:45am

Netherlands vs Turkey

The Netherlands meet Turkey in Berlin for their Euro 2024 semi-final on Saturday (20:00, ITV1/STV), after turning in an impressive 3-0 display against Romania in the round of 16. The Dutch haven't been at their best this tournament but they look like they have turned a corner now that we are coming to the business end of the tournament. 

Turkey turned in a clinical and resolute display to defeat Austria last time out, and it looks like they will need to do the same again here. Read on for my Netherlands vs Turkey prediction, featuring match odds and team news.

Netherlands vs Turkey Betting Tips

  • Netherlands and both teams to score - Yes (in 90 mins) @ 9/4
  • Cody Gakpo anytime goalscorer @ 8/5
  • Netherlands to win 2-1 (in 90 mins) @ 7/1

Netherlands vs Turkey Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Netherlands vs Turkey page on (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

The Netherlands are 4/7 to win this tie in regulation time, giving them an implied probability of 63.6%. Turkey are valued at 9/2, which gives them an 18.2% chance of victory. The draw can be backed at 16/5 (23.8%) if you see this tie going to extra-time.

The Netherlands are 2/7 (77.8%) to win the tie, while Turkey are 5/2 (28.6%).

Both teams to score is marketed at 4/5 and over 2.5 goals is on offer at 8/11.

Euro 2024 Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Euro 2024 page on (or app) for all the live betting prices on this competition.

Team News

After being dropped to the bench in place of Steven Bergwijn against Romania, Donyell Malen responded with two goals late on as he entered the fray in the second half, and the Netherlands wide man should return to the XI in Berlin.

Boss Ronald Koeman gambled with that selection but Bergwijn did not have the impact he would have hoped for. Malen had a tough time when he first came on but he found his feet late on to score twice and book the Oranje's place in the quarter-finals.

Given it was their best performance of the tournament so far, that is the only change expected for Saturday.

Turkey will welcome back captain Hakan Calhanoglu and Samet Adaykin back from suspension, but they must now cope without midfielders Orkun Kokcu and Ismail Yuksek, who will serve a one-game ban of their own.

Turkey boss Vincenzo Montella could partner Akaydin with Abdulkerim Bardakci in the centre of defence after Merih Demiral, who scored both goals in the win over Austria, was given an immediate two-match suspension by Uefa for his celebration in that game, though the Turkish federation has appealed to CAS (Court of Arbitration for Sport).

Netherlands and both teams to score - Yes (in 90 mins) @ 9/4

I can't lie, this is a tough tie to call. I thought Austria would beat Turkey but the Crescent-Stars' game plan in that match was executed to perfection. They frustrated their opponents and they were ruthless with their set-pieces, with Arda Guler capable of some exquisite deliveries.

The Netherlands looked strong against Romania, and Turkey will look to limit them like they did with Austria. The onus will be on the Dutch to be patient and break them down, but to also be prepared for Turkey's corner routines and counter-attacks.

However, Turkey's players looked drained in the final stages of the win over Austria because they had to cover so much ground. I think fatigue might seep into their legs here which is why I am leaning towards the Netherlands to win inside 90 minutes.

I do see Turkey scoring, though, because Guler's deliveries and Demiral's aerial presence - if available - pose such a threat inside the box.

Netherlands and both teams to score at 9/4 Cody Gakpo anytime goalscorer @ 8/5

Liverpool attacker Cody Gakpo just loves to turn up when an international tournament is on. He was impressive at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar which helped him get the move to Anfield, and he has very much been the main man for the Oranje in Germany.

His fine strike against Romania saw his goal tally for the tournament rise to three (joint-most at Euro 2024), and I don't think he's finished just yet. The Dutchman has carried the biggest goal threat for his team so far, despite Memphis Depay being the centre-forward, so he will be the player that Turkey will be most concerned about heading into the weekend.

Gakpo is playing with confidence, which Liverpool fans will be glad to see and hope he can bring back with him to the Premier League next season, and I think he is worth backing to get on the scoresheet here.

He has registered 10 shots in the four matches played and seven of them have been on target. As I think we will see some tired legs in this Turkey team, I don't think he will be short of goalscoring opportunities in Berlin, and I am confident he can put at least one of them away.

Cody Gakpo anytime goalscorer at 8/5 Netherlands to win 2-1 (in 90 mins) @ 7/1

Turkey may be fatigued but I think their character and resilience will still be on show. That is why I think they will make the Netherlands work hard for this victory, and I do see it being a close affair.

I can envisage the Dutch wrapping up the game in normal time with a 2-1 scoreline and I am expecting them to turn in a performance similar to the one they gave against Romania in the previous round.


Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven Pre-Match offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

GOAL FEVER - Place a Match Result single bet (Pre-Match), and if your team wins by 3 or more goals in selected matches, we’ll pay a 25% cash bonus on top of your winnings!

Place a bet on the Anytime Goalscorer market on any Euro 2024 Knockout match and if your player scores in Extra Time we'll pay you out as a winner.

Place a bet on the Player To Be Carded market on any Euro 2024 Knockout match and if your player is carded in Extra Time we'll pay you out as a winner.

You can read all our latest Euro 2024 Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.


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