Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough Prediction: Goals expected at Fratton Park

After a decent couple of results, Portsmouth have now lost their last three games and dropped back down to 23rd in the Championship table. It means they need to get back to winning ways as they host Middlesbrough on Saturday at 15:00, while Michael Carrick’s men have aspirations of promotion this season. 

Below you can find my Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough predictions as we search for some value for this Championship fixture. 

Team News

Zak Swanson seems to have the edge on Terry Devlin and Jordan Williams at right-back for Pompey, while John Mousinho should name January arrival Rob Atkinson alongside Marlon Pack in the heart of the defence. The Bristol City loanee impressed in his first game against Blackburn and could be important in their survival bid. 

Isaac Hayden also arrived this month on loan and should start in midfield alongside fellow Premier League loanee Freddie Potts. Paddy Lane’s injury means that Matt Ritchie should start on the right, while Callum Lang, Josh Murphy and Colby Bishop will make up the rest of the XI. 

Meanwhile for Boro, all eyes are on star striker Emmanuel Latte Lath, who has been subject to a bid of £16m from MLS outfit Atlanta United. Carrick confirmed he would be involved this weekend, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this is one of his last games for the club. 

There’s also positive news on the injury front however as midfielder Aidan Morris, keeper Seny Dieng and defender Luke Ayling, are all back in training and could make the squad. All three will be major boosts to Boro, but Tommy Conway is going to miss out as he remains close to a return. On the negative side of things, Darragh Lenihan and Tommy Smith have both suffered setbacks and are now doubts for the remainder of the season.

Portsmouth vs Middlesbrough Odds

The home side are priced at 100/30 to win this game having won four games at Fratton Park this term. Boro are available at 4/5 and are unbeaten in their last six league matches, although they did lose to Blackburn in the FA Cup last time out. 

A draw is priced at 11/4 while over 2.5 goals is 4/6, having come in during 68% of Pompey games so far. BTTS is 8/13 and Latte Lath is favourite to open the scoring at 4/1.

Middlesbrough to win @ 4/5 

I’ve been steadfast in my belief that Boro wil make the top six this season and although they haven’t closed the gap on the top four as I had hoped, they are still in a decent position. Carrick’s men are second in the league when it comes to xG created and they have shown themselves to be a mighty attacking force this term. That should carry them into the play-offs, although I am slightly concerned by the Latte Lath situation and Conway’s injury doesn’t help things either, but they should still have enough to beat Pompey. 

Portsmouth are by no means a lost cause this term and I still think they can stay up, based on their home results. They have beaten Coventry 4-1 and Swansea 4-0 in their last two home fixtures, but I think both of those sides crumbled under the pressure of the Fratton Park atmosphere. I think Boro’s quality will see them rise above the noise, and secure a nice away win. 

Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 

I’m really confident about this selection. Portsmouth currently sit top of the charts in the Championship when we look at the over 2.5 goals situation, as 17 of their 25 matches have seen three goals or more. That puts them at a 68 per cent success rate, with Watford the only other team above the 60 per cent mark. 

Six of the last seven Pompey matches have ended with over 2.5 goals and if you combine their love of goals with Boro’s attacking prowess, we should see the net bulge on multiple occasions on Saturday. Boro have scored 23 goals in 12 away games, and we should see that form continue this weekend. 

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