Poland vs Estonia Prediction: Poland too strong for minnows Estonia

 | March 20 | 

3 mins read

football generic

Poland and Estonia meet in Warsaw on Thursday (19:45) in a crucial Euro 2024 qualifying play-off. Poland finished third in their qualifying group, behind Albania and the Czech Republic, while Estonia managed just one point from their eight qualifying games. 

However, both of these sides remain in contention for a place in the tournament proper thanks to their respective performances in the Nations League. Here are our Poland vs Estonia predictions, featuring team news and match odds.

Poland vs Estonia Betting Tips

  • Poland -2 handicap @ 6/4
  • #PickYourPunt: Poland over 2.5 team goals, over 7.5 corners, both teams to score - no and Robert Lewandowski to score 2+ goals @ 13/2 

Team News

Poland striker Arkadiusz Milik missed club side Juventus’ last game and hasn’t made the squad for the Euro 2024 play-off games but the hosts have their other big-name players available.

Robert Lewandowski will skipper Poland, with Wojciech Szczęsny, Kamil Grosicki, Piotr Zieliński and Krzysztof Piątek all included.

Veteran Konstantin Vassiljev captains Estonia, who haven’t selected Rauno Sappinen in their latest squad despite the fact he was their only player to score in qualifying as he grabbed both of their goals.

Match Odds

Poland are the heavy favourites to win the match at 1/6 and a draw is on offer at 6/1, while Estonia are 18/1 to secure a victory.

Both teams to score is 7/4, with ‘no’ in that market paying out at 2/5. Over 2.5 goals is 4/6 and under 2.5 is 11/10, while over 3.5 goals is 7/4.

Barcelona striker Lewandowski is the favourite to open the scoring at 7/4 and he is 23/10 to score two or more goals.

Poland -2 handicap @ 6/4

Poland are the overwhelming favourites to win this game and that should come as no real surprise. Estonia offered very little in the qualifying group stages with just one point from eight games and they scored just twice across those fixtures, conceding 22 times themselves.

The visitors are winless in 11 and have lost nine of those games. Estonia have managed to keep things respectable across their last five games and haven’t lost by more than two goals during that run - but they could be in line for a bigger beating on Thursday.

This is an all-or-nothing game as the winner will set up a final against either Wales or Finland, so Estonia will have to keep pushing men forward and taking risks even if they do fall behind. If Poland do get an early goal it could open the floodgates, and with the likes of Lewandowski, Grosicki and Zieliński in their team the Poles are more than capable of winning by a big margin.

Poland -2 handicap at 6/4

#PickYourPunt: Poland over 2.5 team goals, over 7.5 corners, both teams to score - no and Robert Lewandowski to score 2+ goals @ 13/2

Following on from the above, backing Poland to score over 2.5 goals makes sense here as Estonia are liable to the odd collapse. They lost back-to-back games 5-0 against Belgium and Sweden during qualifying and they conceded on average 2.75 goals-per-game in the group stages.

Lewandowski has hit 75 goals in 124 games for Poland and he can add to that haul on Thursday. The 35-year-old comes into the game in good form after scoring in back-to-back games for Barcelona and he was on target against Latvia in his last appearance for his country. Lewandowski should also be on penalty duties so he may be able to score twice against Estonia.

Poland won eight corners themselves against the Latvians and as both sides have to go for this we may see a fairly open game at points, so over 7.5 corners appeals.

Estonia managed just two goals in qualifying and both of those were scored by Sappinen, who isn’t in the squad. Poland have four clean sheets in their last six home games so a both teams to score - no selection looks a solid addition to this 13/2 #PickYourPunt bet.

#PickYourPunt at 13/2

You can read all our latest Euro 2024 Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.


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