In addition to our BTTS and Accumulator columns, we are starting an over 2.5 acca piece for every Saturday.

We start with a sixfold currently priced up at 19/1 including games from the Premier League, Championship, League 2 and the National League…

Over 2.5 Tips – Saturday 30 September, 2023

  • Back Over 2.5 Goals in Manchester United vs Crystal Palace @ 4/6
  • Back Over 2.5 Goals in Everton vs Luton Town @ Evens
  • Back Over 2.5 Goals in Southampton vs Leeds United @ 8/13
  • Back Over 2.5 Goals in Swindon Town vs Grimsby Town @ 8/11
  • Back Over 2.5 Goals in Wrexham vs Crewe Alexandra @ 4/9
  • Back Over 2.5 Goals in AFC Fylde vs Woking @ 8/11
  • Overall Odds – 19/1

We start our first over 2.5 Goals column of the year at Old Trafford where Manchester United host Crystal Palace. These two teams met just in the week where the home side came away with a 3-0 victory in the Carabao Cup, where it was a weakened team fielded by the visitors. I would expect to see a much stronger looking side put out by the London-based club on Saturday afternoon.

Palace aren’t one of the biggest scorers in the Premier League but since Roy Hodgson returned towards the end of last season, their output in front of goal has dramatically improved. The visitors even went through a spell just a few weeks ago of back-to-back-to-back games where they scored at least three times. 

Five of Erik ten Hag’s past six games in all competitions has seen the over 2.5 come in, with only the 0-1 away win at Turf Moor bucking that trend. I have put this game up in my Saturday BTTS Tips column as well because I really like both sides to get on the scoresheet and it would not shock me in the slightest if one of the teams scored multiple times.

Next up might be the shocker of all six as neither Everton or Luton are exactly sides that play open, free-flowing football on the front foot. Here is a statistic that might shock you however, in four of their past five games, Sean Dyche’s side have been involved in games where the over 2.5 has been a winner. I’m as shocked as you but it’s true.

Beating Brentford last weekend will have released a significant amount of pressure that the squad were feeling. Seeing Dominic Calvert-Lewin scoring in successive games is also very much noteworthy.

The Hatters travel up to Goodison having been an over 2.5 dud in three straight but this is the type of game where they just have to come out and play. It might be the last weekend in September but this has the feel of a relegation six-pointer all over it. So this is a gut-feel pick as I think we’ll see an open game and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Toffees score two or three themselves.

If you are looking for a team with real consistency regarding being involved in games where over 2.5 has been a winner then may I introduce you to Southampton.

Only a 1-0 defeat to Ipswich Town has kept them from a 100% record in this statistic and in recent games, things have not been pretty for Russell Martin’s men. They got beaten 5-0 up at Sunderland and followed that up with a 1-4 home defeat to Leicester City. They’ve also had a 4-4 earlier in the season when Norwich and themselves played out an eight-goal thriller. So they’ve scored a few but been conceding an awful lot.

Leeds have been feast or famine. In their past five, they’ve played out two 0-0 draws but have also won twice 3-0 and went to Portman Road and put four past the Tractor Boys whilst seeing the home side score three. Against what is a questionable defence in an early kick-off on the telly, I’m going with this game to not scupper our selections from the 3PM games.

A couple of games for us down in League 2 where I’m writing about Swindon Town for the second time in 24 hours having already put them as part of my Saturday Accumulator Tips column, where I’m expecting the home side to come away with a big home win. 

The Robins have averaged three goals per 90 minutes just themselves through eight games of this young season. They’ve also conceded 13. They’ve already been involved in three games where over 5.5 would have been a winner. All that put together adds up to the fact they are good in front of front and not so good at the back. 

Grimsby aren’t big scorers and their over 2.5 record isn’t great (three of nine) but I like the home side to run up the score and they alone could see this one home.

In addition I’ve picked the game at the Racecourse Ground and that should come as no surprise considering both these sides’ respective records in the early days of their 23/24 campaigns.

Wrexham have scored 20 and conceded the same. So in nine gamers, fans have seen 40 goals scored. As for Crewe, their supporters have witnessed 35, 21 of them scored by their men. 

Things have calmed down since the 3-5 and 5-5 score lines we saw in the first two games of the season at the Hollywood-owned club but they are still four of five for over 2.5 in home league games. This feels like the strongest leg of the six.

We round things off down in the National League where if you’ve been following the results of AFC Fylde, you’ll know exactly why they are included. Only once have they not been an over 2.5 winner when they were beaten 0-2 at home by Aldershot three weeks back. 

This leg is definitely based on my thoughts about the home side as Woking have only been involved in over 2.5 winners once in their seven. Yet I’m still more than happy to put this game up because Adam Murray’s men are just so consistent in this market.

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