Over 2.5 Goals Tips: A Saturday 17/1 Acca from the UK Coupon

Last week was oh so close. Five games all went to plan but the great attack of Stockport County did not marry up with the poor defence of Swindon Town as they played out a 0-0 draw.

This week we go seven-games deep for our Saturday Over 2.5 Goals Tips column, looking for our third winner of 2024, this time at a price just shy of 17/1...

Leg 1 - Newcastle United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers @ 4/7

If anyone has watched Newcastle in recent weeks, then this selection won’t come as any surprise. Last season, they were defensively stout to go along with creating chances in attack. 

For the past three months or so however, they have looked so leaky at the back. Even though Blackburn only scored once against them in the cup on Tuesday night, the amount of times a relegation-threatened Championship side drove through the heart of the midfield was just flat-out scary.

We have to go all the way back to December 23 and a 1-0 defeat to Luton Town at Kenilworth Road to find the last game Eddie Howe’s side failed to pay out on an Over 2.5 Goals bet in the league.

Wolves have several attacking talents who can give the Newcastle backline fits and starts and I fully expect yet another high-scoring game up at St James’ Park. 

Leg 2 - Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool @ 4/9

Jurgen Klopp’s side are riding a hot streak for Over 2.5 Goals in the top flight, as you have to go all the way back to Boxing Day to find a Premier League match where two or fewer goals were scored. 

With the amount of attacking flair the German potentially has at his disposal, that is not a huge surprise although there are injury question marks heading into this match at the City Ground.

No-one has scored more than the league leaders so far this campaign and only the three sides in the relegation zone have conceded more than Nottingham Forest. This has all the recipe of a high-scoring away win and I fully expect it to reach the all-important three-goal mark.

Leg 3 - Norwich City vs Sunderland @ 4/5

Norwich City manager David Wagner will be enjoying his side's current purple patch in front of goal. In back-to-back matches at Carrow Road, the Canaries have scored four times, against Watford and Cardiff City.

What he might not be enjoying as much is how poor his team are at the back. Norwich sit just one place outside of the play-off places, yet only six sides in the rest of the Championship have conceded more times than his men.

That is a conundrum for a manager but an opportunity for Over 2.5 Goal backers. This game has the recipe of more than the odd goal, at both ends.

Leg 4 - Grimsby Town vs Forest Green Rovers @ 8/11

This game also made it into my BTTS column as Blundell Park is the venue that just keeps on serving up goals. 

Here is a quick snapshot of what it has been like for fans of Grimsby Town so far in 2024. In the five matches played there so far this calendar year, 30 goals have been scored. That is an insane average of five-per-game. Over 2.5 would have been a winner in all of them but get this, Over 5.5 would have been a winner in three of them as well.

Forest Green Rovers are not a high-scoring side and they have the poorest record in EFL League 2, notching up on average just a solitary goal per 90 minutes of action. Yet, with just how crazy games have been up on the North East coast of Lincolnshire, I fully expect shenanigans and plenty of goalmouth action once more again this weekend.

Leg 5 - Oxford City vs Aldershot Town @ 4/11

I’m always one for a statistic and Aldershot have played nine-straight National League matches away from the Recreation Ground where this bet has been a winner. That is the type of run that certainly raises the eye-brows.

In both home and away matches, games involving the Shots are averaging 3.6 goals and their opponents are also good for plenty of goals. They are at 3.44 for every 90-minutes of football and defensively, they are shocking. No fewer than 77 times this season has the Oxford City goalkeeper had to get the ball from the back of his net.

Dagenham & Redbridge scored seven past them, Eastleigh plundered five and Gateshead got four. All of those matches were just in the month of February! You can see why the odds are so short.

Leg 6 - Radcliffe Football Club vs Morpeth Town @ 4/11

Speaking of short prices, that takes us to our regular seventh-tier section with the two darlings of this column. First of all we go to the leaders in the Northern League and Radcliffe FC. 

The Greater Lancashire club are scoring only a hair shy of 2.5 goals-per-game just themselves, without even taking into account the ones they concede. 74 times they’ve found the back of the net in league matches so far this campaign. Fair to say that is a pretty good record. 10 of their 12 matches in 2024 have resulted in Over 2.5 being a winner.

Morpeth for their part have only failed to reach the required number of goals once so far in this calendar year, a 0-2 win at Gainsborough Trinity back on January 13. So all signs point towards another high-scoring game for fans of the Boro to watch.

Leg 7 -  Swindon Supermarine vs Tiverton Town @ 4/11

For the seemingly umpteenth time in these columns, I’d like to point out that the last time the players of Swindon Supermarine took to the field on a Saturday and came off having not been part of a match where Over 2.5 Goals was a winner back that 0-0 draw against Sholing back in early November. 

The only match where this bet didn’t come in during that span was a 1-0 loss at Poole Town on a Tuesday night. That Saturday/Tuesday thing may seem like splitting hairs but non-league games do seem to always be more high-scoring at weekends when half the players aren't playing after a half-day at work.

Our friends at the Marine are still the worst defence in the Southern South Division, conceding 77 in 32 matches. When you couple that with this 54 they’ve scored, that Over 2.5 run makes an awful lot of sense.

Tiverton Town are also a side who partake in plenty of matches where goals are not exactly at a premium. They average 3.55 per 90 minutes. 

So once more, the Radcliffe/Swindon Supermarine double makes it into this column. Only once so far in 2024 has both legs not been a winner.

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