Last week for our Saturday Over 2.5 Goals column, we went a bit mad and put up a ten-fold. Eight of them came in but Ilkeston Town vs Marine and Mansfield Town vs Notts County were the two that tripped us up.
This Saturday we go a bit more normal with six matches picked for a price just north of 20/1...
Leg 1 - Luton Town vs Sheffield United @ 8/11
In for a penny, in for a pound. This game at Kenilworth Road has the capability to scupper all three of my Saturday Accumulator columns, as it has been inserted into each and every one of them.
First of all I have Luton winning the game in the straight up Acca, that was followed by inclusion in the BTTS sixfold and now it emerges again.
I really don’t like putting in the same game multiple times because it can be really annoying if it falls through and wipes out everything, but all the statistics point towards this being one of the most obvious Over 2.5 Goals selections of the weekend.
The Blades have hit Over 2.5 in five straight and Over 3.5 would’ve been a winner in all of those as well. Chris Wilder hasn’t been able to sort that defence out but he has been able to make them a bit more of a force going forward and if you watched Luton’s 4-4 draw at Newcastle last week, you saw just how impressive Rob Edwards’ side were going forward but coupled with that, just how poor they were at the back.
The final reason for going for the Over 2.5 here, both goalkeepers are in my FPL Draft team as I really mucked up when it came to picking up a half-decent shot-stopper. They’ll be goals here. Plenty of them.
Leg 2 - Wrexham vs Bradford City @ 10/11
Wrexham have been a bit Jekyll & Hyde when it comes to Over 2.5 Goals but when you filter it to home and away matches, the general trend looks an awful lot clearer.
Games at the Racecourse have predominantly been good for this bet whereas on their travels, goals have been tougher to find.
Bradford are one of the worst teams in the division for this bet, having only been a winner in 13 games from the 30 played but they do have a 50% record on the road. When you couple that with the 79% record for games at Wrexham, this leg feels like a decent price and really does bulk up the odds.
Leg 3 - Chesham United vs Swindon Supermarine @ 4/7
Regular readers of this column will know all about the visitors here, as I pretty much select them every single week. The last time they played on a Saturday and Over 2.5 Goals wasn’t a winner? All the way back in the middle of November.
Stuart Fleetwood’s side are a machine when it comes to this bet and their goals for and against record is a thing of beauty. 51 and 69 respectively through 29 games, resulting in a goals-per-game average of over four. That is sweet as.
They face top-of-the-table Chesham United on Saturday afternoon and whilst defeat looks highly probable, both teams can score and I like them to keep up their impressive record for us in the Saturday Over 2.5 Goals tips column.
Leg 4 - Dulwich Hamlet vs Hornchurch FC @ 4/6
It has been a while since I’ve selected a game from the Isthmian League but when you have the top scorers facing the team with the second-best goals-per-game ratio, you have to sit up and take notice.
Hornchurch have scored at least twice in four of their five games on their travels so far in 2024 and Dulwich Hamlet have been an Over 2.5 winner in all six of their matches this calendar year. In addition, they would’ve been a winner in their past three without any help from the opposition.
All signs point to goals at Champion Hill.
Leg 5 - Hungerford Town vs Walton & Hersham @ 1/2
Both sides in this one average over three goals-per-game throughout their 23/24 Southern South campaigns but it is the recent form of the home side that has pushed this game into the mix this weekend.
Here is a recap of the past three results Danny Robinson’s men have put up. They took a 6-2 shellacking at Plymouth Parkway on 20 January. A week later they beat our good friends Swindon Supermarine 3-2, thanks to two late goals, then last Saturday they lost 3-2 at Hayes & Yeading. So three straight matches where let alone Over 2.5 being a winner, Over 4.5 would've been good as well.
Both clubs are on the outskirts of the playoff places and this should be a pretty decent encounter down at Bulpit Lane.
Leg 6 - Worksop Town vs Radcliffe Football Club @ 4/6
My second old faithful of the column, as Radcliffe once more make an appearance. Now if I’d done a Tuesday Over 2.5 column midweek then I would no doubt have played them. Yet, they came away from FC United of Manchester with all three points but only having scored the one goal and therefore it would have been a loser.
I’m betting on that game being the anomaly and they get right back on the Over 2.5 bandwagon, having been rolling a 13-game streak of this bet being a winner spanning all the way back to late November.
Worksop are not good for this bet, having only been a winner in two of their past eight in the Northern League. My money however is on the overriding excellence of the visitors in this bet, to create an open game and goals will follow.
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