Over 2.5 Goals Tips: Saturday’s 13/1 Acca for the 3PM coupon

Our Over 2.5 Goals Tips column last Saturday did not go down in history as one of our best, with only three of the six games played hitting the mark.

This week we have a 13/1 sixfold, with a heavy focus on the non-leagues and our two favourites sides continue to appear for the umpteenth straight Saturday...

Leg 1 - Over 2.5 Goals in Crystal Palace vs Luton Town @ 4/5

The traders say this is the longest shot of the sixfold and anyone who has watched Crystal Palace so far this season can probably understand why.

In green shoots regarding this particular bet, they have seen both of their matches under new manager Oliver Glasner result in an Over 2.5 winner but this selection has very little to do with the home side. It is all about the visitors.

It is now 10-straight games where Rob Edwards’ side have been involved in the Over 2.5 hitting and they have the perfect qualities for this bet. They score a few for a poor side and they just aren’t very good defensively. The type of combination that I can get on board with.

If Sheffield United can score three past you, then it is pretty obvious that there are problems at the back. Luton though have also scored in every game in that 10-game run and only once have they not conceded (a 4-0 win over Brighton). So goals at both ends are very much in play and I think this is a surprisingly strong opening leg.

Leg 2 - Over 2.5 Goals in Southampton vs Sunderland @ 4/7

Stats play a big part in my selections and Southampton have been involved in seven matches on the spin at home where the Over 2.5 has been a winner. 76% of matches in total in the Championship season at St. Mary’s have resulted in three or more goals being scored, which is only behind Portman Road (83%) and Home Park (78%) in the division.

Last Saturday, they scored a dramatic late winner at Birmingham to round-off a seven-goal thriller, which showed that they have plenty of heart and are still very much in the automatic promotion race.

Sunderland are a team in total free-fall, with the Michael Beale experiment having failed nearly as badly as the Troy Deeney one at Forest Green.

The Mackems haven’t taken home even a point from their past five and even though they aren’t getting thumped week in, week out, the fact they played Leicester tough on Tuesday night whilst Southampton had their feet up following the postponement of their midweek match with Preston, makes me think this will be a big home win.

Leg 3 - Over 2.5 Goals vs Altrincham FC vs Woking @ 8/11

I have leaned heavily into the statistics this week and that takes us to the National League, where this column used to live pretty exclusively.

Supporters at the J Davidson Stadium have seen plenty of goals in recent months. The last time they didn’t see at least three scored at the venue was in a 2-0 victory for the home side against Southend United back on November 11. That makes it eight-straight matches at home where the over has hit.

The home side are second (72%) only to AFC Fylde (76%) in terms of this bet being a winner so far in the 23/24 National League season but there is some trepidation here. Altrincham’s opponents on Saturday have the worst record for this statistic in the division, at just 38%.

So it comes down to an issue we face more weeks than we don’t, do we follow the team with great stats or think the poor form of the other side takes priority? I’m going with the former.

Leg 4 - Over 2.5 Goals in Chesterfield vs AFC Fylde @ 2/5

I have a love/hate relationship with AFC Fylde. Actually, scratch that, it is pretty much all hate.

They are the best team for this bet in the division as I’ve previously stated but in no fewer than five appearances in this column so far this season, they’ve been a winner just the once. Pretty much every Saturday I put them in, they fall short and when I skip them, they follow the form book. Talk about frustrating.

Well, once again they are here. At 76%, they top the division and Chesterfield are joint-second at 72%. So both teams hit the over more than seven times in 10.

In the reverse fixture all the way back in August, it finished 2-4 and the over hit before the half-time whistle had blown. I’m not sure if that happens again but all the signs do point towards goals at the SMH Group Stadium.

Over 2.5 Goals in Guiseley vs Radcliffe Football Club @ 4/7

Regular readers will know all about the final two selections but for any newbies, Radcliffe are top of the National League Premier and have scored a pretty darn impressive 82 times in just 31 matches. They also have the worst defensive record among the top-six in the division. You can see why they are a popular Over 2.5 play for me.

16 of their past 18 matches have resulted in this bet being a winner and on Saturday, they face a Guiseley side who actually turned Radcliffe over just over a month ago in a 3-4 thriller at Stainton Park. So revenge will very much be on the mind as the visitors continue their march towards promotion to the National League.

The home side are not in Radcliffe’s league for Over 2.5 but their matches are still averaging over three goals-per-game. This should a really entertaining encounter and anyone with an afternoon to spare up in the Leeds area could do an awful lot worse than making the trip to Nethermoor Park to take this one in.

Leg 6 - Over 2.5 Goals in Swindon Supermarine vs Plymouth Parkway @ 2/5

No prizes for guessing the sixth and final leg regular readers and once more we make the trip down to the Southern League South Premier for our favourites, Swindon Supermarine.

Last week I checked the scores at half-time and saw they were goalless. Could the streak be over? Could they play a game on a Saturday for the first time since November 11 and fewer than three goals be scored? When I scrolled through the results at full-time, I shouldn’t have been so concerned.

Yet, upon closer inspection, this one got awfully close. The home side were 2-0 up and cruising when Henry Spalding was sent off for a second yellow. Tiverton then went and scored twice in injury-time to see the game end 2-2.

Plymouth Parkway make the trip to Wiltshire below the home side in the league but with a whopping nine-games in hand. Relegation is a possibility for both sides but you would expect with so many extra points to play for, the visitors shouldn’t be feeling the pressure too much as yet.

What I am expecting once more is goals. As is often the case, we have one juggernaut for this bet and then another who are not even lukewarm.

Plymouth Parkway matches haven’t resulted in an Over 2.5 winner in their past four and only once in their six total matches so far in this calendar year has this bet won. Still, I’m rolling with Swindon Supermarine until they lose and they’ve not let me down yet!

The odds for this Acca are just over 13/1 as of the time of writing and that equates to a 7% chance of winning once we convert the betting into probability. This means the traders think this sixfold would win once in every 14 or so times these six matches got played.

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