Over 2.5 Goals Tips: 71/1 10-fold Accumulator for Saturday’s Matches

Our Over 2.5 Goals column last Saturday went close. Five winners with the other two games both a goal short. Therefore the 22/1 shot was a loser but gave us a good ride.

This week we ten-games deep for a mammoth 71/1 price...

Leg 1 - Portsmouth vs Northampton Town @ 8/15

This game wasn’t on my radar when I first sat down to write this column but I’m always willing to be swayed by statistics.

When I read that Northampton Town have seen Over 2.5 hit in their past eight games on the road, that was certainly enough to get my attention. 

Pompey haven’t exactly been banging them in but a good second-half at Oxford saw new-signing Callum Lang play up top with Colby Bishop and suddenly the visitors had a sharp edge up front. Two goals with both strikers hitting the back of the net could be the way forward. Goals could follow.

Leg 2 - Crawley vs Morecambe @ 4/6

Another selection based on statistics here as the 4th best team (67%) for Over 2.5 in EFL League 2 make the long journey south to face the 5th best team (63%).

Only once since the opening weekend of October have fans walked away from the Broadfield Stadium having not seen at least three goals. That was last time out against Salford City but before that, they were rocking a nine-game streak. I like the odds of them getting back on it this weekend.

Leg 3 - Mansfield Town vs Notts County @ 8/15

Notts County have scored five times twice in their past four games. They have also conceded four and five in the same span. We’ve seen their games average north of five goals-per-game during that run.

Stuart Maynard is still new to the top job at County having succeeded Luke Williams just last month and he may offer more of a defensive setup compared to his predecessor. Until we know for sure though, I’m happy to keep rolling with County and their 114 goals in 28 league matches to keep up their Over 2.5 record (which currently stands at 75%).

Leg 4 - Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts @ 1/3

Edinburgh City are not very good. Sitting 12 points adrift at the bottom of Scottish League One (albeit not helped by a six-point penalty) and having only won twice this campaign, things are not going well at the Meadowbank Sports Centre.

One thing they are very good at however is playing in matches where Over 2.5 goals is a winner. They’ve done it in 11-straight games and are sitting at 81% for the season so far. That isn’t too shabby as they say and the odds are short that they’ll make it 12-straight at home against Kelty on Saturday.

Leg 5 - Atherton Collieries vs Morpeth Town @ 1/2

We finally get to where this column usually sits as we have six matches from the non-leagues.

The first three are from the Northern League and all I have to say about our first game from the seventh-tier is that Atherton Collieries matches average 3.76 goals-per-game this season with Morpeth Town a smidgen higher at 3.77. 

Fair to say both average well north of the required 2.5 and this feels like a game where goals will flow.

Leg 6 - Ilkeston Town FC vs Marine AFC @ 4/6 

Marine have hit the Over 2.5 in seven-straight matches and are riding a five-game winning streak as they look to chase down runaway leaders Radcliffe. Neil Young’s side have been scoring plenty in recent weeks and only the aforementioned league leaders have scored more.

Ilkeston have found the back of the net at least twice in each of their past four. So this has all the makings of a fairly open, attacking game.

Leg 7 - Radcliffe Football Club vs Guiseley @ 4/7

One of my two non-league darlings (the second of which are still to come) and I see no reason to go away from either this weekend.

Radcliffe have hit the Over 2.5 in every match since November 21. In over half of those games, the Over 3.5 would have hit as well. They’ve scored 70 times already from just 25 matches. That is darn good.

Guiseley are on the edge of the play-off places and are middle-of-the-road when it comes to goals-per-game in the Northern League at 3.24 but when you throw in Radcliffe are at 4.16, all the stats say this is a good play.

Leg 8 - Gosport Borough vs Merthyr Town @ 1/2

A potential preview of a play-off encounter here from the Southern South division as top-scorers and third-placed Merthyr Town make the long trip down to the south coast to take on a Gosport Borough side just three-points below them (and with two games in hand)

This has all the makings of a good one down at Privett Park. Merthyr matches have averaged 4.75 goals-per-game over the past 360 minutes of football and the Welsh club have found the back of the net four times themselves in half of their past eight.

Leg 9 - Swindon Supermarine vs AFC Totton @ 2/5

Oh hello there Swindon Supermarine, what a surprise to see you here (for the umpteenth straight Over 2.5 column).

I wrote last week that they haven’t been an Over 2.5 failure on the Saturday coupon since October 21 and once more, they came good in a 2-3 defeat on the road at Hungerford. 

Until they come up short, I’ll keep going with them as the 47 goals for and 65 against in just 27 matches is just first-rate when it comes to this bet.

Leg 10 - Walton & Hersham vs Basingstoke Town @ 2/5

Every so often when doing this kind of column, there is a club that all the statistics say are a good play but whenever you put them in, they don’t do the business. AFC Fylde have been one of those this season but Basingstoke Town are now 0 for 2 for me despite their matches averaging over four goals-per-game. 

Six of their past eight have seen the Over 2.5 come in (with the two times I put them up, failing) and going back to the start of October, 16 of their 21 encounters have been a winner for this bet. 

Walton & Hersham games are also very good for goals, averaging 3.73 per 90 minutes of football. Put the two together and surely Basingstoke won't hurt me again. If they do, they’ll make my blacklist alongside AFC Fylde.

This 71/1 shot comes with implied odds of 1.4%, meaning that the numbers suggest this would be a winner roughly once every two seasons. So it is a longshot but for a small stakes play, it feels like all of these games provide genuine hope of hitting the required number.

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