Norwich City vs Burnley Prediction: Another Clarets shut-out?

Having scored the most goals in the Championship before the midweek round of fixtures, Norwich’s runaway train of an attack has come off the tracks, with two blanks in a row. The 3-0 defeat to QPR was a shock, but the 0-0 with a resurgent Portsmouth at Fratton Park saw them put in a dogged defensive display. 

It’s perhaps not what we’ve become accustomed to from Johannes Hoff Thorup’s men this season, but it could lead to more points on the board in the long-term. Next up for the Canaries comes a home test against Burnley on Sunday, with kick-off at 15:00 on Sky Sports Football. Below you can find my Norwich City vs Burnley predictions featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Norwich City received a big blow in the hours before they were set to face Pompey, as captain Kenny McLean was given a four-match ban for the second time this season.

The 32-year-old midfielder was charged with violent conduct, after appearing to elbow a QPR player off the ball, early on in the 3-0 defeat. It wasn’t seen by the officials, but he has now been handed a four-match ban, having already been sent off this season. 

It prompted a reshuffle ahead of kick-off, with Ashley Barnes handed a start up front, Ante Crnac switched to the wing, and Marcelino Nunez dropped into the midfield three alongside Jacob Sorensen and Emiliano Marcondes. I feel Anis Ben Slimane should come in and bolster that area of the pitch against Burnley.

At the back, Callum Doyle was shuffled over to left-back as Jose Cordoba started with Shane Duffy in the heart of the defence. Jack Stacey was given the nod ahead of Kellen Fisher but it’s a 50/50 call between those two at the moment. Josh Sargent is edging closer to a much-needed return for Thorup.

Burnley are hoping to welcome back Mike Tresor, Manuel Benson and Lyle Foster soon, so it will be well worth keeping an eye on their bench. Scott Parker is going to have some tough decisions to make in January because this squad is still bloated, and the raft of injuries has actually helped him name a matchday squad. 

Now those injuries are subsiding, he may be faced with a selection headache. In the 0-0 draw with Derby County, he named the three Joshes in midfield - Brownhill, Cullen and Laurent - with the latter being pushed into the number 10 role. It didn’t work as they drew a blank, so I’d expect Luca Koleosho to come back into the team on the wing, with Jeremy Sarmiento pushed back into the centre.

Zian Flemming was also handed a start against the Rams but Burnley look more cohesive with Jay Rodriguez leading the line, so he should come back in for this away test. CJ Egan-Riley missed the midweek game, and may not be fit enough to start this one, so Bashir Humprheys could retain his spot in the middle, with Lucas Pires slotting in at left-back.

Norwich City vs Burnley Odds

Having only lost once at Carrow Road all season, Norwich are 15/8 to win this game but Burnley are the favourites at 6/4, having only been beaten twice this campaign. Both of those defeats came away from Turf Moor however, but that price gives them an implied win probability of 40% heading to East Anglia. 

A draw can be backed at 11/5, while over 2.5 goals is 11/10 having come in during 55% of Norwich games so far this season. Along a similar note, BTTS is priced up at 4/5, and the division’s top scorer Borja Sainz is the favourite to open the scoring at 11/2.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6

I don’t like to back Norwich games to have under 2.5 goals based on what we have seen this season, but I think it’s the best selection here. I think the loss of McLean is a pretty big one in terms of an attacking perspective - even if he isn’t the man to contribute goals and assists. 

He is the leader in midfield, and allows everybody else to get further forward and play in the preferred positions. What we saw against Portsmouth was a reshuffle that meant the Canaries simply weren't as fluid as they normally are. They are also coming up against the Great Wall of Burnley. They’ve conceded just seven goals all season and are well on track to break the record for fewest goals conceded at this level. 

The Clarets have seen over 2.5 goals in just three of their 20 matches so far, which gives them a paltry success rate of 15 per cent. We are getting excellent value on backing Burnley to keep the scores down again here.