Napoli vs Inter Prediction: Back the Serie A leaders

The short trip to Saudi Arabia for the Suppacoppa Italiana ends on Monday night as Napoli and inter face-off to lift the trophy.

Daniele Fisichella previews the match and gives us his two Best Betting Tips for the game...

It all changed, but everything stayed the same. A final between last season’s champions and the winners of the Coppa Italia always seemed the logical outcome despite this year’s new four-teams formula for the SuperCoppa.

However Napoli and Inter identical results in the semi-finals, 3-0 wins against Fiorentina and Lazio, mask radically different moods and expectations ahead of Monday.

Only a month ago the current Serie A leaders put three past the Scudetto holders at the Maradona as the two sides are currently 20 points apart in Serie A.

On Friday Inter dominated Lazio from the start, displaying extraordinary confidence, crispness in their movements and a relentless desire to play on the front foot, even after taking the lead.

The way Simone Inzaghi’s men imposed their rhythm and style of play on Lazio, who were considered one of Serie A’s most in form sides afer five consecutive wins, confirmed, once again, they’re the best team in Italy and last year’s Champions League run has massively boosted their self belief.

If a criticism must be advanced to the Neroazzurri is that they’ve failed to convert many scoring opportunities in the first half and left themselves vulnerable to a potential (although unlikely) comeback from Sarri’s men. In the end Inter’s goalkepper Yann Sommer did not have a single save to make.

On Thursday Napoli chose a completely different approach as they preferred to leave the initiative to Fiorentina knowing, at some point, they’d have the opportunity to get behind Vincenzo Italiano’s high line defence.

Having achieved only three wins in the previous 11 games, Napoli’s manager Walter Mazzarri decided to finally switch to a back three, with Pasquale Mazzocchi and Mario Rui deployed, on paper, as wing-backs but often helping with defensive duties.

It was nothing like watching last season’s Napoli under Luciano Spalletti, and for Mazzarri’s own admission ‘first do not concede’ is probably the way forward for a team that this season has too often looked lost and is currently without two of their main players (Victor Osimenh and Frank Zambo-Anguissa).

Fiorentina missed a penalty as well as a couple of good chances and the scoresheet flattened Napoli (xG 1.05 against Fiorentina’s 1.59) who scored late in the game twice with substitute Alessio Zerbin but kept their eight clean sheet of such a turbulent campaign.

Team News:

Everything suggests both managers will repeat the same formation that won the semi-finals.

The only doubt for Mazzarri is whether to replace Mazzocchi with Piotr Zielinkski, but would he dare to alter Napoli’s balance?

Giovanni Simeone, who opened the scoring against Fiorentina, is likely to be confirmed in attack.

Alongside Osimhen and Zambo-Anguissa, both at the AFCON, also goalkeeper Alex Meret, defenders Natan and Mathias Oliveira and midfielder Diego Demme are not available for Napoli.

It’s unlikely Denzel Dumfries will take the place of Matteo Darmian on Inter’s right flank. Lautaro Martinez will continue to form a partnership in attack with Marcus Thuram who scored his ninth goal of the season against Lazio on Friday.

Match Odds:

After their flamboyant display in the semi-final it’s no surprise Serie A leaders, Inter, are favourites (8/11) to win within 90 minutes. This season the Milanese side have scored 20 goals more than Napoli in Serie A, have lost only two games and have beaten all Italy’s top sides, but Juventus, so far.

Looking at the odds anything else than a Neraruzzi win will be considered a surprise. In fact the draw pays 5/2 and victory for Napoli 3/1.

Judging by their latest results against top sides (defeats to Real Madrid, Juventus and Roma) and their poor league form, is difficult to imagine the Azzurri can mount a serious challenge comes Monday.

Perhaps their best chance wold be to defend stoically and drag the match to penalties (there’s no extra time). Finals, no matter the importance of the trophy at stake, often are cagey affairs, therefore the odds for Under 2.5 goals (4/5) and Over (10/11) are almost identical.

Inter to score over 1.5 Goals @ 4/5

Inter have scored at least two goals in 18 games so far this season and in five of the last seven matches in all competitions.

They’ve suffered from the absence of Lautaro Martinez at the end of December, but now that the Argentine is back the Neroazzurri are looking more threatening that ever.

Against Lazio they had 24 shots, hit the woodwork twice and an xG of 2.46. Simone Inzaghi can also count on the likes of Carlos Augusto, Frattesi and Dumfries coming off the bench to affect the game. Inzaghi is also a ‘cup-specialist’, having won the SuperCoppa four times and the Coppa Italia three times.

Marcus Thuram to score @ 13/8

The Frenchman scored against Napoli in the league and has found the net in his last two games, against Monza and Lazio on Thursday.

With Inter’s midfielders playing so well, in particular Federico Dimarco, you can expect Thuram will have opportunities to score also against Napoli.

The Azzurri haven’t kept a single clean sheets against top teams so far and Juan Jesus and Rhamani might suffer to keep up with Thuram’s smart movements.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...