Napoli vs Bologna Prediction: Back Osimhen to score once more

What a season it has been for Bologna as they continue to move ever closer to a Champions League berth for the 24/25 season, a positive result in Naples would go a long way to making that dream a reality.

Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella previews this one for us at Betfred Insights. You can watch the game on TNT Sports 3 from 17:00 on Saturday and please read on for our Best Bets and the all-important Napoli vs Bologna Predictions...

With thirteen points separating these two sides, who would have imagined, only nine months ago, that the visitors were the ones inching close to secure Champions League qualification?

Bologna have been, alongside Inter, Serie A’s team of the season.

Despite a recent, little, wobble (only one win in the last five), Thiago Motta’s men remain strong favourite to finish in the top five. Napoli, on the other hand, probably can’t wait for this turbulent season to be over. But can they produce one last hurrah?

With the 1-1 draw in Udine on Monday, Napoli have almost surrendered any hope of qualifying for next season’s Europa League.

Isaac Success’ first goal of the season meant the Neapolitans are now five points behind Lazio, currently occupying the seventh spot in Italy’s top flight.

A big players’ turnover, alongside a new manager, are expected in the summer and the feeling is that, after all, comes September Napoli might be better off without European competitions.

It’s hard to imagine how a team with no objectives for the remainder of the campaign, and with a poor home record, could defeat Bologna.

The visitors have sensibly slowed down in the last month, scoring only four goals in the last five, but still look in better form.

In fact, Bologna have only lost one (1-0 at home against Inter) of their previous 15 Serie A games and need only five more points to secure a historical qualification to Europe’s top competition.

Last summer, Motta was one of the candidates to sit on the Napoli’s bench after Luciano Spalletti decided to leave.

Instead, Napoli’s president, Aurelio De Laurentis, chose Rudi Garcia and Napoli’s season quickly unravelled.

On Saturday Motta can demonstate, once again, that he should have been trusted to manage Italy’s champions.

Team News:

Franco Calzona hopes the injured Kvaratskhelia and Raspadori will make a last minute recovery, but Zielinski and Dendoncker will certainly not be available.

If the Georgian is not fit, Lindstrom will be confirmed in the attacking trio. Osimhen has recovered after the knee problem he suffered in Udine. Cajuste will play in midfield, while in defence, Juan Jesus should return to the centre with Rrahmani.

Beukema is back from suspension and is expected to start in Bologna’s back four in place of Lucumì. Swiss international Freuler will play in front of the defence, Saelemaekers and Ndoye (who’s ahead of Orsolini) will be deployed on the flanks. Aebischer and Fabbian will support Zirkzee up front.

Napoli vs Bologna Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Napoli vs Bologna market page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Despite sitting four positions below the visitors in the table, Napoli are still favourite (21/20) to win the match. Their home record has been very poor this season: only 24 points and 24 goals scored, worse than newly promoted Frosinone and Cagliari.

However, Napoli have won eight of the last nine home games against Bologna and scored 28 goals.

The visitors tough are unbeaten in the last seven Serie A games and have got the league’s third-best defence.

Bologna have let in only 27 goals, only two more than what Napoli have conceded in their home matches.

The hosts are winless in the last four games played at the ‘Diego Armando Maradona’, their worst streak since January 2020 when they went six without a success.

Identical odds (5/2) for the draw and the away win. These sides have drawn 25 league games between them this term, but Bologna has recently achieved three points on the road against Atalanta, Lazio and Roma.

Under 2.5 Goals (4/5) pays almost the same as Over 2.5 (10/11) and this is probably the hardest outcome to pick. In fact, six of Bologna’s last eight games ended with two goals or fewer. On the other hand, three of Napoli’s last four games produced four goals or more.

Bologna or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals @ 13/10 via #PickYourPunt

In the first half against Udinese, Franco Calzona’s team produced no shots on target and, as it also happened two weeks ago at home against Roma, could not hang on to their second-half lead.

Napoli have almost forgotten how to win and haven’t kept a clean sheet in the last 16 games in all competitions.

Due to lack of composure and confidence, the hosts have also squandered many opportunities in front of goal this season. In fact, their xG (expected goals) value is almost 64, +10.85 compared to the goals they’ve actually scored.

Bologna holds the record for away draws this season (nine), and their scoring numbers on the road are average (only 19 goals, having failed to score five times, including in two of the last two trips).

Despite the lack of away successes, the visitors have remained extremely competitive, having lost one (2-1 against Fiorentina) of the eight games they played against top table oppositions.

They’ve also kept five away clean sheets and have conceded just ten times during the second halves.

Victor Osimhen Anytime Goalscorer @ 7/5

Napoli have only failed to score in one of their previous eight games at home. The hosts’ hopes to produce an upset rely, almost solely, on the form of their Nigerian centre-forward. Victor Osimhen will probably leave the club in the summer but his future plans are not affecting his performances. In fact, he has scored in four of the last five games, taking his seasonal tally to 17.

Bologna have conceded at least a goal in every away game they played against teams occupying the first nine positions in the Serie A table.

You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...